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Comment by MrDisposable | Hacker News Reader

  > I'm trying to understand the scale of Putin's decision

Drastic. Catastrophic. Suicidal. World-changing.

The country (Russia) in its current form has just ceased to exist. The entire parasitic elite class just got cut off from everything they stole during all these years. The entire human potential of Russia just got nullified for at lest 20 years. The push towards green energy (and I hope nuclear fusion) just got accelerated. NATO and EU memberships just became essential for any European country. The prospects of nuclear disarmamant are nullified.

The war isn't exactly a blitzkrieg now, but it still has a good chance to succeed -- but that's not what matters. It's the consequences that matter. They will affect the course of human history.

I think the west (Europe and USA) will be perfectly fine. It's we Russians who are fucked for the rest of our lives.

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If Ukraine survives and the war ends in peace, I sincerely wish for a version of some kind of Marshall plan for Russia.

Unfortunately, given the current state of world politics, I am afraid we will instead get a new version of Treaty of Versailles. In which case you will be right.

Russia has tarnished its international standing. It will require a dramatic change in Russian politics, as well a regime change there. Otherwise, the other governments cannot justify to their citizens why taxpayer money should be spent reconstructing a country which threatened nuclear war.

> It's we Russians who are fucked for the rest of our lives.

Most of the world knows that most Russian civilians are also just victims of Putin and a corrupt system. I really hope there's a solution here, where after this is all over, Putin and his buddies can be executed for war crimes and the West can help both the Ukrainians and the Russians rebuild. Ironically the solution in Russia might actually come from Ukraine: it seems like they were able to really deeply root out corruption in their country, with help, in the early 2010s. Maybe after Putin is gone, we can somehow use the same strategy in Russia? I know the scale is completely different, but I'm a hopeless optimist.

> It's we Russians who are fucked for the rest of our lives.

I sure hope, you know who to thank for that.

>It's we Russians who are fucked for the rest of our lives.

I sincerely hope all this goes away as fast as possible and we all can resume our lives in peace. Including you Russians.

I don't see how that can happen with Putin, but fortunately he is far from being the only person who can lead Russia.

  > I sincerely hope all this goes away as fast as possible

I'm thinking 10-15 years. Though I may need to adjust my estimate, because Putin doesn't have easy access to the world's best medical services anymore -- which may shorten his life expectancy.

That's bleak.

i know it's very easy to say, but if you're russian right now, it seems to me that the only sane choice is to actively organize the overthrow of putin.

It's one of the rare case (nuclear war threats), where it may be the safest solution. Especially now that a few public figures in Russia have officially standed against that war. There may be an opportunity to reach a critical mass at home.

It may work in a country where private business (i.e. state-independent source of income) is dominant, but a lot of Russians have jobs at state-owned institutions now (various administrations etc.) where they work for a meager wage.

If they go out protesting, they will be fired from their jobs -- their only source of income. Not exactly a good decision, especially during the crisis times.

That’s why i mentioned a critical mass. If you protest with 1000 people, you’re in danger, but if you’re 500k much less so. Now the question being, how do you organize a 500k people protest in russia at the moment, and that i have no idea. But if it’s possible, then now would be a good time IMHO.

The sky is falling and you think workers should be concerned with a wage that can't even afford bread and a roof?

The sanction squeeze shifts the calculus.

The sky is not falling for those government employed workers yet. First the private sector will degrade and government will try to squeeze every last cent out of it to pay the public sector workers. So when that dries up, then you can expect trouble. But this process can last for some time, it doesn't usually happen overnight. I know that there are major sanctions and West is trying to tank Russian economy, but don't expect to see public sector workers on the streets just yet.

If they don't have that wage, how do they eat?

If they have that wage, how do they eat? Russia is not self-sufficient. Going it alone means people will starve to death.

They won't starve to death in March, but it won't be long before buffers are empty. There is a window to do something about it.

People living paycheck to paycheck cannot fight oppressive regimes. Sanctions are meaningless if you want to make people rise up. Protests need a supply chain in itself.

Can I ask, how are these economic restrictions affecting you in your daily life? Are people able to access money at their banks? Do you predict any future food security issues? Also in your opinion, what is the likely end game now for Putin?

Putin is unlikely to win this war, Ukraine have been given near unlimited anti-tank weapons by the EU/US, and have air superiority now with extra MiG's donated by NATO and TB2 drones from Turkey. Locals are set and prepared for guerrilla warfare. All the usual allies have distanced themselves from Russia. The writing is on the wall.

Is it likely that another oligarch will take his place? Is there any indication that top military might force his replacement? Is any of the economic suffering imposed now likely to force everyone to come out to the streets?

Edited: 'gorilla warfare'

>gorilla warfare

Sorry for being that guy but even though gorilla warfare would be genuinely horrifying, the term is actually guerrilla warfare. Which funnily enough can be translated as "warfare warfare".

Edited to avoid distracting from the argument.

NATO hasn't actually provided any replacement MiGs to Ukraine yet. Ukraine hasn't established air superiority. At best the airspace is still contested.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44501/reports-that-ukr...

  > Can I ask, how are these economic restrictions affecting you in your daily life?

My company may soon be unable to receive revenue from western customers.

My company has two ongoing long-term projects (both took about 10 years), which now increasingly look like wasted time and money. If I'm cut off from my income source, I won't be able to retain key people, and will have to halt the development on both projects.

  > what is the likely end game now for Putin?

Endgame for Putin: Live safely in a bunker, for 10-15 more years, then die from natural causes, happy that he made (literally, _made_) history.

Endgame for Russia: after the death of Putin, in about 20 years from now we go the old tried-and-true route: crash, Perestroika, re-integration with the west -- but this time, we will be disarmed and de-fanged. Then we remain in that subdued state until the next drastic world-changing event (such as the advent of strong AI), and after that all bets are off.

I think people miss that the world is largely zero-sum and a subdued Russia is good for the status quo

Hope you and your loved ones stay safe, and that this russian epoch is a brief as possible.

Thank you. Given that from now on we are the most hated nation on the globe, this means a lot.

Actually I do think the majority of people understand that this is caused/lead mostly by Putin with the aid of handful of key russians. Most people in the world just want to get on with their lifes, keep their children safe and watch them grow.

I am not sure you are aware of this in Russian media, but most of the media shown in the west about Russian military, is of young conscripts who clear have no desire to be in the war, and claim they had no debriefing they would be deployed in Ukraine. The narrative (true or not) in western media is that Putin is using non-ethnic russians and young concripts as cannon fodder in the frontlines to wear off the ukrainian forces.

My point is that the general sentiment in the west is that the economic choke is necessary to avoid escalating NATO involvement (And nuclear threats). But in the west the sentiment is (for the majority) not antagonist to the Russian population itself .

>It's we Russians who are fucked for the rest of our lives.

Blame Putin.

It should have been you, Russians, bleeding and dying in a war against Putin. Not Ukrainians so far away from his seat of power.

It's so easy to think to yourself that you cannot make the world a better place and then to give up and only care about yourself.

Well, sometimes it fires back.

You should start thinking about future Russia. Maybe it's not too late to turn this catastrophe to a victory of the Russian People. Maybe you are not alone.

Thoughts and prayers aren’t going to do much when you’re getting beaten to death in the basement at Lubyanka.

> The country (Russia) in its current form has just ceased to exist.

I’m not too sure about this. The main problem is there isn’t a new form to replace it with, or a new government to replace Putin with that would act any different - for instance, not constantly assassinating people in Europe with chemical weapons.

It does seem like a good time to leave, although an even better time would’ve been before the currency collapsed.

  > It does seem like a good time to leave

Alas, too late for me...

> or a new government to replace Putin with that would act any different

This. I'm tired of the personalisation of the behaviour of the Russian government. Putin didn't launch this war all on his own; he's the head of government, he isn't Napoleon Bonaparte.

I'm uncomfortable about the sanctions regime that is being imposed. If the Russian economy is destroyed the result will be chaos, even if the war ends tomorrow, and Putin is deposed. I don't relish the prospect of political chaos in a country with more nuclear warheads than any other.

This take is unconvincing. What benefit is the invasion to the bureaucracy and oligarchs? This is the result of a megalomaniac puffing his chest.

The man's whole schtick is puffing up his chest. That's what he does (and it means he's unlikely to back down; very bad look for a bare-chested man of action).

But pronouncing psychiatric diagnoses on him isn't very enlightening. If he's a megalomaniac, then half the world's governments are headed by people who are similarly mentally ill. Discounting aggressive foreign leaders as "mad" is bound to lead to incorrect conclusions and bad decisions.

He seems to be motivated by some pseudo-mystical beliefs about Russian national history and destiny. I imagine that by now, there are few at senior levels in the Russian administration that don't share his views. Oligarchs are a different kettle of fish; they're not nationalists, they're egotists. But from what I've read, oligarchs have nowadays been largely supplanted in government by old buddies of Putin from the intelligence services.

I suspect his generals will be the first to crack. They will be worrying about mutinies in their largely-conscript army. Their soldiers didn't sign up for a civil war against their "brothers" (which is what this war is, according to Putin). And generals tend to be practical, rational people.

Hmmm. I'm rewatching Waterloo with Rod Steiger as Napoleon, and wondering whether Putin's been watching the same movie; there's a sort of method-actor hamminess about Putin's public performances that looks a lot like Steiger being Napoleon.

So maybe I'm wrong; maybe he does have a Napoleon complex.

My interpretation is that Russia has changed even if Putin withdraws tomorrow and tries to revert things back to where they were a few months ago. The response from the West has been severe enough that it will take years for business relationships to be rebuilt. In that time, Russia would most likely form closer ties with China. This will mean the West will lose any leverage they previously had on their kleptocratic ruling class and things will most likely get even more difficult for ordinary citizens. And that's the most optimistic scenario except for some kind of miraculous uprising against Putin who currently enjoys a majority of support.

China won't be interested in propping up Russia. There's nothing in it for them.

They're a cheap source of several resources - wheat, oil, gas - and China probably doesn't want to bother owning all of Siberia.

It’s the Russian curse, lots of potential but truly terrible leaders.

Which is extremely sad. We (the humanity) have LOTS of common enemies: diseases, viruses, aging, poverty, drugs and drug violence, warmongergs, corruption and cheaters (ironic, I know), and countless others.

It saddens me that Russia won't be able to contribute human capital towards any of these goals for at least 20 years.

NATO would have destroyed Russia anyway. After the drastic intensification of anti-Russia propaganda in 201x which prepared the population to accept it, it is a matter of time. There is nothing nothing Russia might do to stop the agression (bully always finds pretext). It is not new: no matter the regime, the West will always try to dismantle Russia.

Ukraine is a desperate attempt to defend the state against much more powerful enemy. Ukraine is used as a pawn by the West. It is sad.

Nonsense. NATO will never risk nuclear war unless Russia attacks a NATO country first.

If NATO was willing to risk attacking Russia, they would already be fighting in Ukraine, which is a much lesser risk. They'll arm Ukraine but they won't fight there.

Maybe if Russia was a little less eager in deploying nerve agents in foreign countries the "anti-Russia propaganda" would be less effective.

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