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Comment by pid-1 | Hacker News Reader

What if Russians (the ones with power to do so) decide to take the world with them?

> decide to take the world with them?

Russia always threatens the nuclear option so while it shouldn't be ignored by defense agencies it also shouldn't be taken __too__ seriously. In order for the nuclear option to be used over sanctions there would need to be suicidally homicidal people in place from the top to the people turning the keys in the Russian regime and I think that's pretty unlikely. The sanctions can be unwound and Russia can at least recover to the point of getting by if not better, individuals with means can emigrate with their family, all for the price of one humiliating military defeat that is vastly overshadowed by the economic devastation their actions have wrought. I find it hard to think that most Russians would rather blow up the world than take that option.

Putin is unstable, and him losing power would make him fight like hell and potentially act exactly as you say, suicidal and homicidal.

We have exactly that in power right now. Putin wasn't rational before, and now he's at risk of losing power. I think it's more grave than anyone wants to admit.

He's an animal backed into a corner. It's not 'russians' calling the shots here, it's one Russian who is unstable and making very poor tactical decisions.

the counterbalance to this is (as always) the members of the military. They, too, are human beings, and it takes more than one or two of them to cause actual nuclear weapons to actually launch.

On many occasions in history, wars have stopped because too many people in the military decided that their political "masters" were too insane to be obeyed. We can hope that this pattern would repeat itself.

> Putin is unstable, and him losing power would make him fight like hell

If Putin can single-handedly cause the rockets to launch then your fear is possibly rational. However, if there are any other people in the loop at all then Putin is unlikely to convince everyone else to commit murder suicide on the entire planet.

Makes me feel a little more hopeful about the future, thanks for responding

Putin is an oligarch, he considers the war in Ukraine worth it because it benefits him personally. Another cold war isn't impossible but Putin isn't doing this to destroy the west. Who is he going to sell his oil to?

That's another point of sanctions; they aren't one-way. It's to show others that while cooperation is ideal, if your partners act in bad faith you can survive just fine without them and are ready to accept the loss of their contributions.

If you're talking about a MAD scenario, it's safe to assume russian weapons are just as highly-maintained as their military. Given last week's battle performance, they're likely to blow up on launchpads.

This is a what-if you mostly have to ignore when fighting from a defensive position. If you give in to the dictator, we might as well just get rid of our nuclear arsenals right now and save billions of dollars per year because MAD is useless. Every single brutalist in the future will know your threats mean nothing and they can simply cower you waving their hand around the nuclear button.

Russia is run by mobsters who operate using fear and intimidation. Fortunately, there is an even bigger bully just hanging out off the coasts of Russia ready to hit hard if provoked. The world wouldn't end, but the Russian regime would.

Then whatever Western nations are left will apply crushing sanctions.

Don't be ridiculous. The world knows, Russia included, what the consequence of any use of nuclear weapons by Russia.

Russia will be deleted from existence.

as if iran hasnt been hit enough and yet they are limping gladly

You think the (remaining) world response to Russia using nuclear weapons would be even remotely similar to the sanctions on Iran?

i suppose the same sanctions imposed on the USA after they dropped hiroshima and nagasaki bombs?

The world has changed a lot since then. No country, even the US, would get away with being initiator of a nuclear war (assuming enough of us survived).

I can imagine a scenario of acceptable first use of nukes, and that is against a country using nukes as a threat so they can conduct atrocities with conventional weapons.

I do not know what number or rate of dead I would get on board with vaporizing 12 million humans in Moscow to try and kill Putin. Is it 100,000 per day? 1 million per day? But there is a number, because if it keeps up, it just means this thing is not going to be contained to Ukraine.

And even if 12 million in Moscow are incinerated by a nuclear weapon, there'd be hope that we stop it before it gets even as bad as world war two. And that to me is a goal. ~90 million died globally in world war two, 1/3 from famine. Not that I'd be given a choice but being vaporized sounds better than starving to death and likely becoming a murderer in hand to hand combat fighting for food to survive. Seriously fuck that, nuke me.

I grew up in late 70's early 80's UK and remember distinctly as a child the threats the USSR (then Russia) would make in this regard as they were being hammered by Sanctions.

Its a pretty cruel threat to live under that you don't quite understand - but now I'm older and do, cant help but feel the fear inducing threat of this is infinitely more destructive than actually facing people like Putin.

>What if Russians (the ones with power to do so) decide to take the world with them?

Traditional military is being wrecked by underdog Ukraine and probably massive proxy war. Russia is losing big time.

Evil will burn down the world to rule over the ashes.

Everyone is looking to the Russian people who must prevent this evil from happening. They must rise up and overthrow their government.

Lets be realistic, if Russia does nuke the world. Literally nobody can sit back. The nuclear winter and nightmare of Earth would harm them just as much as anyone else. Even if the prediction of nuclear winter isn't true... it's only a matter of time that Russia goes after everyone else they didnt nuke already.

The entire remaining world immediately lays waste to Russia after they do this.

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