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Comment by ukraineally | Hacker News Reader

Nothing much changed today. The russian special forces are getting wrecked and we knew the reg force troops would convoy behind. The reg forces will take tremendous losses against general mobilization. Their morale is bad now? oh man...

Dare I say, Russia is losing this? The Russian troops are much trashier than expected and/or there's some serious proxy war going on right now. Zelensky is for sure being coached by some serious folks.

Today I saw a ton of russian propaganda that didn't even make any sense. It makes me think Russia was given some pretty serious false impressions about what they started.

When the aggressor starts talking peace after only a few days of complete failure... They screwed up pretty big and they know it.

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Both Western governments and private parties have been publicly showing extraordinary amounts of intelligence on Russia troop movements, disposition, and likely intentions, and I can only imagine that that Ukraine is getting much more than what is public. Limiting one side’s ability to generate surprise really shifts the balance.

>Both Western governments and private parties have been publicly showing extraordinary amounts of intelligence on Russia troop movements, disposition, and likely intentions, and I can only imagine that that Ukraine is getting much more than what is public. Limiting one side’s ability to generate surprise really shifts the balance.

Oh ya, drones, awacs, satellites. Every step by every russian solider is recorded.

Whereas Russia has to track literally everyone? General mobilization means everyone is your enemy.

Then you have the simple reality that there is no doubt a very significant proxy war going on. Russia can't even admit to this or tell the troops because it would destroy their morale. Behind every bush is a navy seal... id shit my pants as well.

> the simple reality that there is no doubt a very significant proxy war going on.

Are you saying there are U.S. military combat forces actively engaged on the ground inside Ukraine? I find this extremely difficult to believe. I could believe that there are a handful of U.S. intelligence advisors relaying satellite comms inside Ukrainian military HQ. It's also plausible that there are a small number of private contractors (ala Blackwater) on the ground in Ukraine.

Do you have any evidence to support active combat engagement of U.S. military forces?

Proxy war means no boots on the ground. The two of you agree.

I was confused by the poster's comment:

> Behind every bush is a navy seal...

Which seems to imply U.S. military personnel engaging on the ground.

No, it implies every bush could be concealing very bad news given info asymmetry.

> Proxy war means no boots on the ground. The two of you agree

To be fair, most actual “proxy wars” (e.g., during the Cold War) have also involved covertly-inserted forces from whichever (including both, where that was the case) of the two superpowers wasn't overtly involved.

>" Russia can't even admit to this or tell the troops because it would destroy their morale. "

From what I saw their morale is pretty much destroyed already. It was probably never there to begin with except maybe special forces.

Maybe it is because I am not a soldier, but I would need a pretty strong reason to fight a war. One that really makes me want to fight.

Even if you factor in Russian nationalism I doubt that many russian soldiers really believe their involvment in Ukraine helps their country.

Not many, but there are some who do believe it. Check out my other post https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30497688 . It's opnions that are held by some chunk of russian population.

>Behind every bush is a navy seal

If there are Americans engaged in Ukraine, this would imply that his nuclear deterrent is hollow, right?

It sounds good in a way, if nobody is prepared to blow up the world.

But if there is no assumption that anyone will, then where does escalation stop?

I wonder if the US could or does conduct direct drone warfare in the Ukraine in secret. With strong end to end encryption, it doesn't seem like it'd be that difficult. The Ukraine could just claim they are operating US made drones.

I hope not. I do not like the prospect of a Russian vs USA war and that we would have if the US do that.

I certainly don't want that either. That's why I think if the US is directly involved, it would be in secret.

> Both Western governments and private parties have been publicly showing extraordinary amounts of intelligence on Russia troop movements, disposition, and likely intentions, and I can only imagine that that Ukraine is getting much more than what is public.

TikTok is world's biggest intel dragnet. On Twitter, I see a vid of the column from TikTak, and 1-2 hours after, of its destruction.

No military in the world has anything as powerful.

Something I can't wrap my head around is why is there even Internet in Ukraine still? Shouldn't the first step of Russian OPs have been to take out telecom? Phones went out in a hurry in ex-Yu (per my parents), but in Ukraine there's still widespread "phones on steroid" to live stream/comment the whole thing every step of the way.

Is it because they're hard to take out or is it a strategic decision? I was initially thinking it must be a voluntary omission, some kind of psyop to get Ukrainians a false sense of security/superiority before Russia shows their actual hand. But as this goes on and it seems Russia's military is not as strong or tactical as expected* the more I just find it puzzling.

*A sentiment I get namely due to info from the thread below, my TLDR being Russia's army is green or only faced weak opposition, not intrinsically motivated and used to doing special ops not wars while Ukrainian's army is battle hardened (6x 60k served in Donbass) and defending their homes. To be noted, if true it doesn't make the situation less volatile - a losing and cornered paper tiger with access thermobaric weapons or tactical nukes seems most dangerous to me. Or not, but if it is I'm getting nervous we (West/NATO) removed them the option to retreat by obliterating their financial system.

0: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204

Starlink is available: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/elon-musk-starlink-...

Not sure how easily accessible this is to the average citizen but it surely makes it hard to shut down the internet entirely.

It's unclear if star link is really available yet. As I understand it, the terrestrial stations were just shipped out over the weekend. Hopefully they can start using them soon.

I doubt the average citizen will be able to use them, as I'm sure the military uses will have first dibs.

The financial sanctions can be dropped if the Russians go home.

One trouble with cutting internet etc. is Ukraine borders Poland which Russia can't easily touch due to NATO.

You're right, that could (and probably is) part of the peace negotiations.

Did you read the report that you posted? Russia is not losing, they are behind, and probably planned poorly/underestimated the fighting but unless things drastically change with NATO, they will cut off large parts of ukrainian defenses and eventually take the population centers. Its crazy I want Ukraine to hold out, I want Ukraine to drive them out, and if you look at reddit, and some twitter accounts you might even think Ukraine is winning, but I don't think thats whats happening.

You mean a bit like when you read the New York Times and thought Hillary was winning?

You're right that the hopeful propaganda is giving a distorted view of the dire situation. Combined with the fact that the Russians don't carry their phones to show their victories.

Apparently RT expected to announce the capture of Kyiv on the morning of the 26's. Every moment Kyiv holds is an indication by what scale Putin's party has miscalculated.

I think that propaganda is important, but I also trust this report as a fair assessment of what is actually happening

Russia's military is acting restrained: no carpet bombing, no massive rocket strikes on population centers. I have no doubt that they will eventually capture their targets, it will just take time. Partisan war follows however, and sanctions remain in place.

They may have some problems in getting less restrained though in that the west would probably up the level of support to Ukraine. You can't carpet bomb if all your bombers are shot down.

> Today I saw a ton of russian propaganda that didn't even make any sense.

I‘m curious, like what for example?

RT and Sputnik usually have a good amount since they are sponsored by the Russian state

RIA news has article that ukranian nationalist-nazi militia executing ukranian military personal that refuses to fight russian army

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