Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment February 27
iswresearch.org
iswresearch.org
This is original https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20...
It does look that assumption was just to march in with no or little resistance, take over entire country in 2 days as then manage area with rosgvardia.
On additional note, this book supposedly popular in upper echelons of Russia and written by somebody who considered to be guru of putin. wiki article has short summary, but it's enough to see how it reflects some of the current realities (in Ukraine, Georgia, UK, USA). Wiki artcile has a good summary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
He basically said, a bunch of idiots keep saying we can just walk into Ukraine with shock and awe and have it all over in hours (or less) and laid out why that is idiotic.
Kind of amazing that the conversation was so public.
Now think about system where this chain is much longer and very kleptocratic. By the time reports get "up there" they show what they are expected to show and do not reflect reality.
Putin seems to have an almost-religious perception of this situation. He views Ukraine as part of a “greater Russia”, and the post-Soviet reorganization that put Ukraine on a vector away from Russian influence as a great historical humiliation.
His comments about there being no point to a world without Russia in it (from 2018) and about the Russia/Ukraine split as an accident of history rather than a fact to be recognized (from last summer) are deeply disturbing.
Russia seems to be relatively weak in all dimensions but two: the ability to indiscriminately level a city and nuclear weapons.
Perilous times.
This is going to lead to excessive costs and crippling of the economy, especially with the sanctions.
The televised drama about Putin ordering special alert for nuclear facilities is a signal that he is getting desperate.
Either he was misled by yes men (most likely) or given false hopes by in-competent generals (also likely) or both.
With present successes, it is not sufficient to only have more troops on ground. An urban insurgency will bleed Russia for years.
When the people, lead by a charismatic leader showing extraordinary courage and resolve taste the motivation and identify Putin as aggressor, the war will be fought with will power. And already, Putin has come out weak when compared to Zelensky.
History will remember the hero who stood up to the tyranny of Putin and his legacy is forever tarnished.
Not a good closing chapter, Putin.
Even if Russia capture population centers, it will not stop the currently increasing number of sanctions.
Neither will installing a puppet regime, that will be seen as almost worse than an invasion.
There will never be any participation in sports as long as this invasion stands, nor will there be any travel abroad for the common Russian citizen.
It's very hard to see what Putin can do to escape this situation, except withdraw from Ukraine.
This will not be the legacy that Putin hoped for.
This has already failed previously. No doubt it will not hold now, after the invasion.
Impression #1: The Ukrainian population is VERY MOTIVATED.
Impression #2: The West will supply Ukraine's population with as much infantry firepower (TOW, MANPAD, etc) as they need.
As the days go on and military supplies flood into the Ukraine from the west, resistance will increase.
Helicopters and tanks will take heavy, expensive, demoralizing losses against well coordinated anti-armor infantry defense forces.
I also think the Ukrainian population will toughen and get trained/experienced in warfare quickly. Potentially Russia is training multiple millions of soldiers on the Ukrainian side with this attack, and forming a national identity, pride, and will to fight.
The only Russian trump card in those situations is air power.
I don't think this is like Afghanistan or the Iraq/Syria smorgasborg. Ukraine is THE buffer state between Europe and Russia. They are fairly westernized. I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace. I don't think there are nearly as many policy/cultural concerns about supplying serious infantry weapons to the Ukraine.
Even if all of Ukraine's airfields are compromised, likely Ukraine can continue air operations from Romania and the like. Would the West supply Ukraine with replacement air force? Uh, yeah.
Russia had two military hopes:
1) very fast ground total victory (doubt it at this point, why did Russia attack in winter? Because they could get a quick victory they hoped? Even Russian soldiers will have lower morale in winter operations.)
2) win air superiority to enable a ground victory long enough to get puppet regime in and the West gives up support. I think this is where we are now, and I have NO IDEA how the air war is going.
This is an important consideration. Already, EU is not reluctant to pour weapons into the region.
Putin seems to have galvanized the rest of Europe against him. I doubt that's what he wanted.
Also Finland gave permission for Germany to supply some cannons to Ukraine, and Finnish news said we also donate 2000 combat helmets and vests and two field hospitals.
5000 AT4 and some other stuff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT4
Unfortunately no NLAWS. =(
edit: source (in swedish): https://www.dn.se/sverige/sverige-skickar-militart-stod-till...
I, for one, have a hard time believing the 4k Russian casualties claimed by Ukraine.
In reality Ukraine got a bunch of stingers in last few months. It seems to use it rather effectively to bring down planes and helicopters (saw today at morning video of couple of russian planes shot down). Also russia failed to knock off air defenses. Additionally there is a bunch of BUK/Panzir systems that russian solders left on a roads (saw a few videos) that probably will be repurposed
And last point, russian air force it's not exactly modern air force with guided bombs. It's just good old carpet bombing
Russia should have a "modern air force" for some approximation of "modern". If they don't, well, this is a bizarre offensive.
I've read that Putin looks like he's aged 10 years in the last year or so, and people speculating he has cancer. This offensive seems poorly timed, rushed, and foolish. Like a dying autocrat's last stab.
boutique models :) Also if you will check news carefully, they don't really sell anything to anybody
>but surely they have approximations of JDAM-type munitions, certainly laser guided bombs?
probably have some limited quantity. Like 1/10th of what Israel has, in best case. They simply do not have tech or manufacturing capability to mass produce stuff. Most of things is for show. Navigators on their strategic bombers use scale ruler (there was on russian news segment about military greatness of TU160 and they by accident showed it)
One of the tricks of an army besieging something is to constantly attack and not let the defenders rest. I would say with good internet intelligence and a very motivated and armed populace, insurgency could do the opposite to the russians here: deny them sleep, deny them warmth, and destroy their ability to fight.
That's not just "bad morale": bad morale is a rational influence on conscious thought. With enough sleep deprivation there is no military discipline, no will to fight or follow orders.
If you are a defender with the back against the wall, that can strangely motivate you. If you're a Russian young adult freezing in the cold and pissed off over an obviously frivolous war, it makes for despair.
If the Ukraine and NATO were smart, they'd setup and advertise a POW camp in Greece on the beach. Surrender? We're sending you to a vacation.
Ukraine is a weird situation. They are RIGHT NEXT DOOR to the EU. This isn't like supplying Afghanistan rebels from 4000 miles away. Russia has no idea what resources will be supplied from the EU, what capabilities will be granted on any given day.
When will the US start providing drones? Will the US supply a huge drone fleet remotely operated from the US, and conduct night bombing operations when it is daytime in the US? Then just hand off daytime operations to the EU?
If the US/EU do that with sufficient numbers of drones, then conventional air superiority (my fighters are unthreatened) doesn't protect the ground troops, and the ground troops are toast.
I wonder if Putin knows he's terminally ill and is just burning it all down because he's a madman.
Brain tumor? Pancreatic cancer? (Why not both?)
But he is already preparing to apply the Grozny playbook where the city was practically razed to the ground. His excuse will be something like “we warned them and they still hid amongst the civilians, it’s their own fault”
Mentioning the nuclear threat shows some desperation. He is probably seeing some internal pressure from his corrupt business buddies.
Those thermobaric munitions also do a nice job exploding before being launched when hit by a drone. They clear out quite a large group of invaders with one well placed shot.
And the empty threats towards Sweden and Finland are now just that. Germany is increasing the military defense budget so it will become larger than the Russian.
https://m.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense-s...
Unfortunely, most likely this will escalate and I am just waiting for him to declare any kind of help to Ukrain as an official war declaration on Russia, and then we are all in.
However, he might be getting desperate enough:
> Russian forces are deploying additional artillery assets including thermobaric artillery to the Kharkiv axis as of February 27.
And odd declaration in the middle of a war.
Either they've realised they're screwed or something unforeseen is about to happen.
On the whole, I think Putin has been reading his own press a bit - thinking the Ukrainians would roll over and in parts welcome his 'liberating' force, but instead he's getting his nose bloodied by a well armed, well trained, well coached, resilient populace and army. He's being absolutely embarrassed on the world stage by a comedian. It must be killing him.
Dare I say, Russia is losing this? The Russian troops are much trashier than expected and/or there's some serious proxy war going on right now. Zelensky is for sure being coached by some serious folks.
Today I saw a ton of russian propaganda that didn't even make any sense. It makes me think Russia was given some pretty serious false impressions about what they started.
When the aggressor starts talking peace after only a few days of complete failure... They screwed up pretty big and they know it.
Oh ya, drones, awacs, satellites. Every step by every russian solider is recorded.
Whereas Russia has to track literally everyone? General mobilization means everyone is your enemy.
Then you have the simple reality that there is no doubt a very significant proxy war going on. Russia can't even admit to this or tell the troops because it would destroy their morale. Behind every bush is a navy seal... id shit my pants as well.
Are you saying there are U.S. military combat forces actively engaged on the ground inside Ukraine? I find this extremely difficult to believe. I could believe that there are a handful of U.S. intelligence advisors relaying satellite comms inside Ukrainian military HQ. It's also plausible that there are a small number of private contractors (ala Blackwater) on the ground in Ukraine.
Do you have any evidence to support active combat engagement of U.S. military forces?
> Behind every bush is a navy seal...
Which seems to imply U.S. military personnel engaging on the ground.
To be fair, most actual “proxy wars” (e.g., during the Cold War) have also involved covertly-inserted forces from whichever (including both, where that was the case) of the two superpowers wasn't overtly involved.
From what I saw their morale is pretty much destroyed already. It was probably never there to begin with except maybe special forces.
Even if you factor in Russian nationalism I doubt that many russian soldiers really believe their involvment in Ukraine helps their country.
If there are Americans engaged in Ukraine, this would imply that his nuclear deterrent is hollow, right?
It sounds good in a way, if nobody is prepared to blow up the world.
But if there is no assumption that anyone will, then where does escalation stop?
TikTok is world's biggest intel dragnet. On Twitter, I see a vid of the column from TikTak, and 1-2 hours after, of its destruction.
No military in the world has anything as powerful.
Is it because they're hard to take out or is it a strategic decision? I was initially thinking it must be a voluntary omission, some kind of psyop to get Ukrainians a false sense of security/superiority before Russia shows their actual hand. But as this goes on and it seems Russia's military is not as strong or tactical as expected* the more I just find it puzzling.
*A sentiment I get namely due to info from the thread below, my TLDR being Russia's army is green or only faced weak opposition, not intrinsically motivated and used to doing special ops not wars while Ukrainian's army is battle hardened (6x 60k served in Donbass) and defending their homes. To be noted, if true it doesn't make the situation less volatile - a losing and cornered paper tiger with access thermobaric weapons or tactical nukes seems most dangerous to me. Or not, but if it is I'm getting nervous we (West/NATO) removed them the option to retreat by obliterating their financial system.
0: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204
Not sure how easily accessible this is to the average citizen but it surely makes it hard to shut down the internet entirely.
I doubt the average citizen will be able to use them, as I'm sure the military uses will have first dibs.
One trouble with cutting internet etc. is Ukraine borders Poland which Russia can't easily touch due to NATO.
I‘m curious, like what for example?
Apparently RT expected to announce the capture of Kyiv on the morning of the 26's. Every moment Kyiv holds is an indication by what scale Putin's party has miscalculated.