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I think you misread the article. Tesla produced over 930,000 vehicles last year (2021). The link you sited was for the first 8 months of the year.

Source: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2021-vehicle-pro...

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Ah good catch, thank you. Doesn't really change much of my analysis though.

Well, 300k a quarter is 3x as much as 400k per year, so if you keep everything else the same it turns your estimate into $240-480 a share and that would be a much more survivable drop.

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