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Comment by empressplay | Hacker News Reader

I'm not convinced Russia is in a hurry here. Also, they have much heavier weapons they can use but have not yet done so because they don't want to use them if they don't have to, especially if the idea is to unite Ukraine with Russia (vaporizing Ukrainian soldiers en masse for example would be a bad look in that case)

With no troops coming to the aid of Ukraine, the Russians have the luxury of time.

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I don't think they necessarily do. Ruble is gonna crumble and pressure is gonna mount on them internally and externally. This is not a war that can go on for months. I'm not an expert by any means but I think it's one of those situations were you either win quickly or have to back down.

Agreed. If they did not have limited time, economic pressure, internal division, domestic unrest, disheartened soldiers... there's no question Russia would win. But they do have all those things working against them.

I fear though that the authoritarian state doesn't have the capacity to rationally analyze the prognosis and cut their sunk costs (both economic and political).

> With no troops coming to the aid of Ukraine, the Russians have the luxury of time.

There are no troops coming to Ukraine, but arms are streaming across the Polish border from NATO countries.

Not to mention lots of Ukraine citizens rapidly training as militias as we speak.

The longer Putin waits, the more weapons Ukraine will have.

Makes you wonder if that was the point? Get everyone all stirred up about a half hearted invasion so they dump a bunch of currency and weapons into the country to prop up the Ukrainians, then send your real a-list players in to seize the goods. Free resupply and upgrades from all your friends! Now you can move on to the next target.

As the ruble crashes and protests go off daily...

I'm not an expert but I can't imagine it's worth it for that, factoring in sanctions, increased militarisation of surrounding countries + potential spread of NATO, casualties, Russian equipment being destroyed, equipment that doesn't fit their ammo/can't be supported/etc., and the probability that many of these weapons don't get seized and instead are used against them for years by rebels (the west has even implied they will support this with more - and the weapons we have sent are suited to this and not hugely valuable).

Pretty far fetched

also invasion troops are getting out of supply quickly too.

> There are no troops coming to Ukraine, but arms are streaming across the Polish border from NATO countries.

I don't understand why the Western governments are openly anouncing their supply of weapons to Ukraine. Why not just do it stealthily?

I don't think it's really possible to hide the fact that US and UK military hardware is arriving by the bucket-load into Ukraine.

Javelins in particular are quite distinctive when used in the field.

I am not sure that somebody going to go CSI Miami style on blown up machinery :) Surprisingly there is very little footage of it (javelines/nlaw/stingers) in the field .

Why not? It's a show of support for their own citizens if nothing else, who probably for the most part support Ukraine.

If they do it stealthily, when videos show up on tiktok of javelins taking out tanks, the Russians can say "see! It's all more western imperialism!".

If they do it publicly, they avoid that and send a strong message that they're supporting Ukraine. Win-win.

That's not something you can hide from Russia, so why not announce it and give Ukrainians hope and will to fight off the invaders? Joe Biden and other leaders have been making the right decisions by being transparent.

They don't have the luxury of time. With NATO becoming more and more aware this isn't a bluff you can be sure they will be shipping in more and more cheap anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukrainian ground forces which are highly effective against russia attackers as they stand. If Russia starts firebombing cities I think they might win from demoralization but it could also get Russian citizens and politicians nervous and sick to watch Putin destroying their brethren in Ukraine. You have to remember Putin is a sociopath and while intelligent he doesn't have any real emotions to understand that total war against Ukraine could easily end support from his country and allies like China and neutrals like India.and Turkey

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