Hacker News Reader

Comment by dav_Oz | Hacker News Reader

So, this seems to be now as I suspected a massive blunder on the side of Putin, whatever his motivations, the US has really played well here, comparable to how Russia had played the US in Syria. The situation after the very risky offensive in Ukraine got stalled fairly quick.

On the mid to long-term: The US has now consolidated its power in the EU and effectively severed Russia from Europe/the West. China can now take in Russia.

Edit: This just my quick assessment, I could be wrong. The war is still on going and I hope it ends quick.

View on HN

Yeah, I think it's important to not whipsaw between idealising and devaluing Russian military capability.

To a large extent, even if they lose, they win (eg. as the article says, Ukraine may need to withdraw from defensive lines in the east to defend Kiev, in which case Russia could make a land-grab there). There will be contingencies for all sorts of different definitions of "win".

And in another sense, even if they win, they lose, because in fighting as best they can, they expend capital and expose all their weaknesses to view. And even if they achieve absolutely maximal war aims, like capturing the entire country, they are likely to find themselves in a situation that they are pretty unprepared for. I think states go to war hoping to achieve the maximal goals, but most prepared to achieve some subset of them before time, money, political support runs out.

I'm not convinced Russia is in a hurry here. Also, they have much heavier weapons they can use but have not yet done so because they don't want to use them if they don't have to, especially if the idea is to unite Ukraine with Russia (vaporizing Ukrainian soldiers en masse for example would be a bad look in that case)

With no troops coming to the aid of Ukraine, the Russians have the luxury of time.

I don't think they necessarily do. Ruble is gonna crumble and pressure is gonna mount on them internally and externally. This is not a war that can go on for months. I'm not an expert by any means but I think it's one of those situations were you either win quickly or have to back down.

Agreed. If they did not have limited time, economic pressure, internal division, domestic unrest, disheartened soldiers... there's no question Russia would win. But they do have all those things working against them.

I fear though that the authoritarian state doesn't have the capacity to rationally analyze the prognosis and cut their sunk costs (both economic and political).

> With no troops coming to the aid of Ukraine, the Russians have the luxury of time.

There are no troops coming to Ukraine, but arms are streaming across the Polish border from NATO countries.

Not to mention lots of Ukraine citizens rapidly training as militias as we speak.

The longer Putin waits, the more weapons Ukraine will have.

> There are no troops coming to Ukraine, but arms are streaming across the Polish border from NATO countries.

I don't understand why the Western governments are openly anouncing their supply of weapons to Ukraine. Why not just do it stealthily?

If they do it stealthily, when videos show up on tiktok of javelins taking out tanks, the Russians can say "see! It's all more western imperialism!".

If they do it publicly, they avoid that and send a strong message that they're supporting Ukraine. Win-win.

Why not? It's a show of support for their own citizens if nothing else, who probably for the most part support Ukraine.

I don't think it's really possible to hide the fact that US and UK military hardware is arriving by the bucket-load into Ukraine.

Javelins in particular are quite distinctive when used in the field.

I am not sure that somebody going to go CSI Miami style on blown up machinery :) Surprisingly there is very little footage of it (javelines/nlaw/stingers) in the field .

That's not something you can hide from Russia, so why not announce it and give Ukrainians hope and will to fight off the invaders? Joe Biden and other leaders have been making the right decisions by being transparent.

also invasion troops are getting out of supply quickly too.

Makes you wonder if that was the point? Get everyone all stirred up about a half hearted invasion so they dump a bunch of currency and weapons into the country to prop up the Ukrainians, then send your real a-list players in to seize the goods. Free resupply and upgrades from all your friends! Now you can move on to the next target.

I'm not an expert but I can't imagine it's worth it for that, factoring in sanctions, increased militarisation of surrounding countries + potential spread of NATO, casualties, Russian equipment being destroyed, equipment that doesn't fit their ammo/can't be supported/etc., and the probability that many of these weapons don't get seized and instead are used against them for years by rebels (the west has even implied they will support this with more - and the weapons we have sent are suited to this and not hugely valuable).

Pretty far fetched

As the ruble crashes and protests go off daily...

They don't have the luxury of time. With NATO becoming more and more aware this isn't a bluff you can be sure they will be shipping in more and more cheap anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukrainian ground forces which are highly effective against russia attackers as they stand. If Russia starts firebombing cities I think they might win from demoralization but it could also get Russian citizens and politicians nervous and sick to watch Putin destroying their brethren in Ukraine. You have to remember Putin is a sociopath and while intelligent he doesn't have any real emotions to understand that total war against Ukraine could easily end support from his country and allies like China and neutrals like India.and Turkey

Its Germans that are going to be in the cold, taking the inconvenience and difficulty to help sanction Russia via Swift with all EU member states, and disrupt their ability to purchase gas from Russia.

US is specifically avoiding anything that would cause economic distress to Americans, this is in the President’s speech, and it is because the party will decisively lose politically later this year if there is more distress.

Big win for US intelligence for sure!

Messing with the fossil fuel markets is definitely what is required, amongst other things.

Maybe the Germans shouldn't have relied on a corrupt kleptocracy for energy.

Right, better to rely on Middle Eastern despots.

Has the Middle East been pointing missiles at Western Europe for 6 decades?

False dilemma

And the person you replied to oversimplified the outcome as well

Wait, Middle Eastern despots produce renewable energy?

Climate change already requires that. So this gives us an interesting flavour of how seriously they are taking our most important threat :)

Reply on news.ycombinator.com