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Comment by Avicebron | Hacker News Reader

I know two people in Ukraine who have received automatic weapons from the gov't...I do wonder how reasonable it is to arm untrained civilians. Turning someone without training into an armed combatant against an invading military seems like putting them directly in a high risk of being shot (as opposed to the lower risk of collateral casualty)

EDIT: it's not my hill to die on, I just hope it's not theirs either

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Heh. You can really tell in this thread who has grown up with guns and who hasn't.

I remember my grandpa taking me under some bridge somewhere and letting me loose off a few .45 rounds. I was about 8.

It was supremely stupid. In fact, I have a vivid memory of it almost being a disaster. My grandpa lived in a bad part of Alton, IL. His house got broken into on a regular basis. So he kept a loaded pistol right next to his bed.

Somehow I found this thing at around the same age, and started fooling around with it.

But then something interesting happened. The thing my grandpa taught me: never to assume a gun wasn't loaded, and always check it. So I checked it, and sure enough, I did not squeeze the trigger that day.

My point is, it doesn't take much training to be safe around weapons. Military tactics are an entirely different matter, of course. It's not a great idea to have random people running around with guns.

But they're not random people. They're defending their home. If SF was under attack by Japan in an alternate universe, wouldn't you do the same?

Seeing Kiev unfold makes me feel a strange kinship with Washington, of all people. There too, people had very little combat training, and were pretty much arming the neighbors. But it turns out that armed neighbors can sometimes be effective.

Here's a fascinating piece of propaganda for you: https://twitter.com/peedutuisk/status/1497310882069581824

It's propaganda, but it's very good propaganda. For a brief moment, I was actually crazy enough to wish I was out there helping them.

I feel obligated to point out that a major reversal in Washington's fortunes came when Lafeyette (and a few other European officers such as Steuben) trained American colonists, and they became dramatically more effective. Who knows, maybe there are equivalents of Lafeyette and Steuben among the Ukrainian people today, but if so I wouldn't know about it (or expect to).

I'm sure there are hundreds of US and NATO "advisors" on the ground, they show up in every conflict, but are not heavily reported on.

Ukraina has been living with the threat of war for a while now. They have had help training from both neighbour and not so neighbour countries since 2015 at least.

> Ukraina has been living with the threat of war for a while now.

It was known since at least 2005

I've seen a few videos of citizens lining up for weapons, and IMO, the troubling thing is the lack of uniforms. If Russians can't tell the difference between civilians and combatants, everyone becomes a target.

‘Legally?’ Nope. But that is literally how every invasion ends up until the population is ‘pacified’. It’s why guerilla war works so well too.

The invaders/gov’t can’t tell who is actually an adversary until it is late, and attempts to guess always kill innocent civilians which just draws more anger and hate from the local population and creates more rebels/guerillas.

This is why people say ‘war is hell - because it is.

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/02/26/world/26ukraine-b...

Yellow armbands seem to be the militia indicator.

> Yellow armbands seem to be the militia indicator.

Not just militia, both sides have the same uniforms and helmets.

Perhaps the German offer of helmets wasn't as useless as it seemed.

Russia is already attacking hospitals and apartment buildings. The time has passed for that little problem.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/149751474738575769...

It's not clear if it helps in the long run, it probably does but a lot of friendly fire should be expected. Just recent example where Ukrainian anti aircraft units were taken for Russians and killed in Kyiv (the one where strela 10 vehicle collided with a car under fire) shows the danger.

To be fair to myself and you, I grew up in rural america around with guns everywhere. Took hunter safety, whole shebang, never really got around to buying myself or using automatic weapons.

I see your point on the American revolution, but please, let's not forget times have changed. the US population were on home ground with rifled barrels, easier to aim and using geurilla tactics against an old british standing line firing system (also their rifles weren't always rifled ;) ).

The chance that a population of civilians with weapons goes to hide in a bunker with or without unarmed people is higher than it is with military troops, and what happens when Russian intel says there are enemy combatants hiding in a bunker vs a bunch of civilians hiding in a bunker...chances go up that they will receive a bunker buster knock and talk more than if there were unarmed people there.

this isn't 1776.

The Ukrainians aren't some ragtag group. Literally thousands of antitank weapons have been supplied to them.

The Ukrainian military, and even their air force, are still coordinated and operational.

---------

This means that rifle militia aren't there to kill a tank. They are there to force the tank commander inside with small arms fire. Tanks are famously difficult to see out of.

Once in there, the tank is a sitting duck to a Javelin or Panzerfaust will kill the tank reliably.

This isn't 100 poorly trained militia vs tank.

The situation is closer to 100 poorly trained militia + 5 professional soldiers armed with NATO top of the line antitank missiles vs tank.

Having grown up around guns, you should know that modern semi and fully automatic rifles are 100x more n00b friendly than an 18th century muzzle loader.

Battles inside a city is still armored vehicles and men on foot. Things haven’t changed all that much. Rifles and improvised bombs go a long way.

If pseudonymous self-professed US veterans of Afghanistan/Iraq wars commenting online are to be trusted, balloons full of paint are among the most effective anti-tank weapons in urban fighting.

That works but a Molotov cocktail on the engine air intake is also pretty good and easy too. The goal is to get the crew out of the tank. Usually you have a LOT of infantry around tanks to provide security

Was it not Stalin who said "quantity has a quality all its own?"

There are hundreds of thousands of Russian troops, but tens of millions of Ukranians capable of using rifles semi-effectively. And they are literally everywhere in the country.

> My point is, it doesn't take much training to be safe around weapons.

And yet too many people do not get any kind of training:

> Student accidentally shoots self in incident at Huntsville elementary school

* https://www.al.com/news/huntsville/2022/02/student-shot-in-i...

> Man accidentally shoots self while playing with gun along San Diego interstate

* https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/north-county-news/man...

> Man accidentally shot himself in hand while cleaning his gun in Mount Pleasant

* https://journaltimes.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/man-acc...

Some folks probably shouldn't have guns because of emotional control issues:

> A man was arrested early morning after shots were fired at another man during what the sheriff's department is calling a road rage dispute in Coachella.

* https://amp.desertsun.com/amp/6909957001

> Father in custody after directing 4-year-old to shoot at officers in McDonald's drive-thru

* https://kutv.com/news/local/suspect-in-custody-after-shootin...

* https://twitter.com/well_regulated_

I wonder if Dang is checking all those throwaways to see which are Russian propagandists.

Yes, of course some idiots can shoot themselves with guns, but most people don't. In fact, even most idiots don't. USA has more guns than people and those freak accidents are rare. Various third world countries have people who cannot read, but who can shoot a gun. And again, they dont hurt themselves.

If you wanted to make some dig about guns, then maybe give examples of real problems (school shootings, robberies, being killed by a stray bullet), but here you come with some absurd comments that "NOT shooting yourself into your foot" requires 200 IQ, which is a straight lie. Using a gun is probably on par of learning to ride a bike, and definitely much easier than driving a car.

Ukrainians cant get a guns to defend their homeland, because some propaganda throwaway (sponsored by GRU or KGB?) claims that they will shoot themselves in their feet.

Those people are defending their homes against an aggression, most probably were conscripts who were taught how to use a gun.

> I wonder if Dang is checking all those throwaways to see which are Russian propagandists.

I must be a heck of a sleeper agent given this account has been around since 2017:

* https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=throw0101a

You may want to see some of my other posts on this general topic:

* https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30406240

* https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30406157

> Ukrainians cant get a guns to defend their homeland, because some propaganda throwaway (sponsored by GRU or KGB?) claims that they will shoot themselves in their feet.

Please quote back the part of my post where I say they can't. Please.

> And yet too many people do not get any kind of training:

In Ukraine every man over 40 years old received a training on basic infantry tactics and using assault rifle AK-74 and hand grenade RGD-5 during high school years.

Presumably people in the US National Guard are also trained:

> Guard soldier killed in tragic accidental shooting by roommate, fellow Guardsman

* https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2022/02/02/guard-so...

The use of the word "accident" in the above story is also not accurate IMHO, for the same reason why "car accident" isn't:

> The two groups behind the recent campaign — Transportation Alternatives and Families for Safe Streets — argue that the term "accident" makes it seem like crashes are inevitable, rather than preventable. In a subtle way, it normalizes the crash and discourages us from looking more deeply into their causes — whether alcohol, reckless driving, or bad street design.

* https://www.vox.com/2015/7/20/8995151/crash-not-accident

Certainly the training they got during service is good, but the GP's point about not much training being needed isn't as simple as he makes it out IMHO.

What exactly is the point you're trying to make?

Training is not universal, and for some people it may not even be useful.

It's certainly not ideal, but their only other choice at this point is to surrender to Russian occupation. The Russian military greatly outnumbers that of Ukraine, so without civilians joining the defense, they'd really have no chance. Of course these people are at high risk, but obviously they feel it's worth it to defend their freedom.

I don’t see how a civilian force will significantly improve their chances.

Edit: this isn’t a video game. Civilians taking up arms makes them targets. The Russian aim is regime change, and at this time it appears that Russia will prevail. It is existential for Russia. All a civilian resistance will do is maybe slightly delay the inevitable at horrific cost. I think people should be discouraged from throwing their lives away on a lost cause. Even the Ukrainian propaganda of heroic deaths contains an understanding that there is no hope.

Russian forces are mostly conscripts, so it's not that much better. They probably have marginally better training, but they're less motivated. Also, there's military service in Ukraine. The average civilian probably has a decent understanding of weapons handling and basic tactics.

They also have less knowledge and understanding of the key terrain involved. That’s the key here in urban warfare. Understanding the critical choke points, areas of overwatch and lines of sight etc will be something they know intuitively because they’re from there. Russians will have to look at their maps.

The forces fighting in Ukraine are not conscripts, but contract soldiers. Russian law doesn't allow conscripts to be deployed overseas. Of course it's an authoritarian regime so they could do it anyway, but there would be serious domestic repercussions and largely isn't necessary to get the troop concentrations they have

there are reports that they do exactly that: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/02/26/i-m-panicking-where-...

The chance that any random civilian you encounter could blow you away drastically changes how an occupying force has to go about occupying

Locals often know every street, every building, every alley of their neighborhood. That information asymmetry is a huge advantage in the locals' favor.

Guerilla warfare is very effective against ‘traditional military’ tactics.

It causes bloodshed, but it’s not like having everyone you know sent to the gulag is all roses and butterflies either. And that is legitimately what the stakes are (or worse).

History is littered with examples of civilian forces making occupation unbearable for the occupiers.

one example from 2014:

https://twitter.com/ZeroPark30/status/1497445963111280647

They are already at high risk of being shot. Merely leaving the city they are in puts them at massive risk of attack. There are almost no instances where we should be arming people, but having evil, rampaging attackers kilometers from entices one to defend themselves rather than submit to occupation and likely death.

In 1995 Chechen anti-tank teams drawn from the local civilian population disabled a whole Russian tank battalion while suffering very few loses themselves. You can do a lot with volunteers on home territory. The Ukrainians are in a struggle for self determination, these people are volunteering and they should be able to if the want to.

Chechen anti-tank teams were facing very poorly prepared and motivated, and almost entirely conscript, Russian army in 1994-96. With tanks in particular, inexperienced commanders who were given orders to "get it over quickly" would often send them without infantry screens, making them easy pickings for RPG teams. And in urban areas especially, RPGs were used from basements of apartment buildings - low enough that Russian tanks cannot depress the main gun to lob a shell in there, or use the co-axial MG.

None of this is likely to apply in this case. Russian armor is still likely to take heavy casualties in the cities - that's just the nature of urban warfare - but I don't think it'll be anything like Chechnya in the 90s.

Looks like the Ukrainians, at least as of today, have NLAW shoulder fired anti-tank missiles which are a hell of a lot better tan the RPGs the Chechens had. Apparently you just need to shoot over top of the tank, and don't need direct line of sight. There a some videos up on twitter of them in use.

They have Javelins, too. But, conversely, Russians aren't going to just send their armor ahead without infantry and let it be slaughtered.

I think the most salient question is whether Ukraine can maintain the effectiveness of its anti-air long term.

Yeah, that for sure remains to be seen. I really hope they can pull it off and repel the invasion before neighboring states get drawn in.

AFAIK The Chechens were ex soviet military and had been operating a large scale black market for weapons - so they had plenty on hand. Towards the end of that conflict Russia started using AA guns on the tanks to counter the ambushes. I’m pretty sure they learned a lot from that experience.

They were, but a lot of Ukrainians have military service experience. It also seems like Russia didn’t learn those lessons, and others. Their armor looks to be stretched thin. In urban fighting having lots of people firing from a lot of places on advancing Russians will make it hard for them to focus air support. Just pinning down small groups of Russian infantry will allow the Ukrainian army to roll them up if they can maintain mobility.

Russia started using AA guns on the tanks to counter the ambushes.

Haven't seen any pictures of these [1] in Ukraine.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMPT_Terminator

Ukraine is one of the 28 countries with mandatory military service. But regardless, I think anything goes when your country is facing an existential threat.

You might be surprised how little weapons training many actual soldiers get.

Is the risk to minimize total casualties (military and civilian, injury and death) or to repel an invading force? Because it's very likely that if your goal is the latter, putting a gun in everyone's hand regardless of their skill with it might be the best course of action.

I don't understand why they are doing this, Wikipedia states that they have 900 000 citizens that went through military service. If you can't defend your country with almost a million soldiers No amount of untrained civians will.

Thats the thing - they’ve passed the mandatory military service, so they know how to follow orders and maintain discipline, but they went home and became doctors/programmers, now that there’s war, they are given arms and asked to remember their training.

But then they aren't just giving out guns to civilians, but they are calling them back to service (i don't know the proper english term for this).

In the US, we have active military members where they are 24/7 soldiers. There are also reservists where once a month, they get together for a weekend to do solider stuff. There's also a two week stint once a year to keep up training. So not quite as well trained as active military, but a hell of a lot more well trained than just handing rifles to someone with a slap on the backside with a "good luck" for extra measure.

Otherwise, calling a retired active military member back to active service is known as being recalled.

Consider all 4 dimensions of the battlefield. You cannot be aware of every direction, at all times. Especially in cities, which has 3 spatial dimensions of potential hostile infantry positions. Therefore sheer numbers do matter.

Especially in the cities, all insurgents have to do is wait, and rain down bullets. Many will miss, but some will hit.

One key to success in military operations is tempo. Armed defenders using guerrilla tactics disrupt an attacker's tempo. Every minute a platoon of soldiers hesitates crossing a street or gets bogged down clearing a building is a minute closer to sunset, a minute more of vehicles burning fuel, a minute longer for defenders to get reinforcements, and more stress and fatigue on the whole unit.

An attacking force doesn't have infinite resources to attack indefinitely. A mechanized force that runs out of fuel is extremely vulnerable. Those extra minutes burning gas not being able to push forward add up.

Also, how is this coordinated, and how do they prevent being shot at by their own people?

It's a war. Normal rules to not apply. If you are ever in one, you will want a weapon, trust me.

... there are some rules by Geneva convention

This civilians with guns are now combatants. And must "carry arms openly and respect the laws and customs of war"

Lulz - that’s all well and good, except that gets paid mostly lip service even by the professional militaries, who are the ones who have the most to lose by not following the rules.

Civilians do what they need to do to survive and protect their loved ones. If that means shivving a soldier in the back while pretending to be unarmed, so be it.

Having guns is way better than civilians usually get.

Yea, they can do that but i think it is a war crime. Not sure thou im not lawyer.

Anyway it probably confuses soldiers so they start shooting civilians.

They do that anyway. And war crimes are solidly in the class of ‘if you win, it’s not a crime’ unfortunately. For example, the US (as much as it tries) often commits what are clearly war crimes, and it’s crickets.

Unlawful combatants aren't protected by the laws of war, they're protected by the laws of the land they are in. I think you'd be surprised at how lenient the laws of the land can be for people who technically commit crimes like murder against invading forces.

You wear IFF coloured bands. From photos I've seen the Ukrainians are using yellow arm bands, and Russians white leg bands.

They are trained by the local defense organization.

It is pretty likely that all of those people have handled guns before in some capacity.

People are dying there because of those weapons! Guess what criminals do when you can get automatic rifle for free? Do they fight against invaders?

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