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Comment by vishnugupta | Hacker News Reader

Germany announced weapons assistance just a few minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/bundeskanzler/status/1497638225200001029

Massive miscalculation by the looks of it.

The problem is that will get more dangerous the worst the war goes for Russia. There is talk Russia is willing to use termobaric weapons.

"Russian thermobaric "vacuum bombs" launcher seen by CNN team in Ukraine"

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news....

https://twitter.com/i/status/1497519335350452231

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q91yFP9E9Yg

There's talk Russia is willing to use nuclear weapons. Finland's foreign minster just floated the idea:

https://yle.fi/news/3-12335297 ("FM Haavisto: Russia could be ready to use nuclear weapons")

If they do, how should the west respond? It is so over the line that we have to do something and yet we can't.

Putin is explicitly threatening the use of nuclear weapons. That’s what this means:

“No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history”

Maybe one of his Cooks is called Stanislav Petrov.

thats not explicit though!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

Maybe another Stanislav would polonium is tee a little bit....

Thermobaric means that the explosion uses oxygen from the air and don't need to carry oxidizer. Thermobaric weapons are not that rare. They come in all shapes and sizes. Russia has thermobaric warheads for RPG-9's. The US has 40mm thermobaric grenades.

TOS-1 or TOS-1A mentioned in the article are relative short range 3,500 m - 6,000 m. They destroy effectively areas of few hundred meters in diameter. But missiles are big and supply logistics needed is extensive.

Not claiming they are rare, just that their use would bring the level of destruction to levels unthinkable.

Not that different from normal field artillery.

If they are going to indiscriminately bomb cities like in Chechnya and Syria world opinion will only go worse for them. Ukrainians are relatable to Westerners.

This seems phyrric. Russia will win this war but the lower and more barbaric it stoops, the weaker it seems.

This is an unwinnable war. The US and Russia could not even conquer Afghanistan - with a virtually non-existent army, and no allies to help Afghanistan.

As Ukraine is showing - they have a strong, well organized military. Beside a lack of anti-bomber missiles (Patriots) - they have everything they need to defend themselves.

They now have full support from almost the entire advanced world beside China and India. And it looks like they'll be getting some Patriot missiles within 24 hours.

Russia doesn't even have partial support from anyone. The best they can get is China and India trying to stay neutral - and it looks like China is starting to side with the rest of the world, with reports it has blocked all banks from lending money to Russia.

As an Indian guy married to a Chinese, I am deeply ashamed of how our governments lack a spine to voice the morally correct opinion in time. (Such events might actually make my resolve firmer to acquire Japanese citizenship from my current PR status)

Even worse, Chinese Foreign Minister rebuked a reporter that "it wasn't an invasion."

Do you have a reference for the Patriot missiles? I guess Russia could see that as another major escalation. Or do you mean Stinger?

I definitely heard on a radio report that Germany is giving Ukraine stinger missiles

Stinger yes. Patriot last I heard the United Stated did not want because they considered it would upset Putin too much.

"Germany to send Ukraine surface-to-air missiles and anti-tank weapons" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30480526

"Why didn't the U.S. and allies provide Ukraine with a better air defense system?"

We didn't want to provoke Putin," said an official.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/didnt-us-...

I can't even imagine how much worse Afghanistan would've been if the Taliban had access to modern antivehicle weaponry. Something like an NLAW or Javelin costs about 1/100 what a modern Russian tank costs and takes little training to use.

Let us all be glad that - at least for now - it is several orders of magnitude cheaper to defend than to attack (beside crazy things like nuclear weapons).

Example: stingers have 95% accuracy on jets - cost ~$20k. Jets cost $40m+.

Tank cost $5m+. Javelins cost ~$180k.

Patriot missiles cost $1m. Bombers can cost $500m+

Well, they definitely have now.

Afghanistan is unwinnable by any country unless they are willing to declare total war and wiping out all resistance without any attention to human rights.

> Beside a lack of anti-bomber missiles (Patriots) - they have everything they need to defend themselves.

After acquiring a modern SAM capability like the Patriot, they could sure use some modern main battle tanks.

You're forgetting how Pakistan PM Khan immediately landed in Moscow after the invasion, declaring to his Russian welcomers "what a time I have come. So much excitement." They're trying to work out a gas pipeline deal. Pakistan is probably the most supportive of Russia by trying to be opportunistic.

https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/pakistan-mosco...

could it be that him killing the leadership of ukraine, inserting his own puppets then leaving the country is his idea of "win" ?

leaving a buffer state in a mess is a good situation for him.

I get that nobody outside Ukraine wants to directly battle Russia, so supporting Ukraine with weapons makes sense. But it seems a little late...

To arm them ahead of time would have appeared to justify Putin’s claims. That would have been a different kind of disaster. I don’t know why anyone thought he wasn’t going to do this, you don’t mass the army like that unless you’re going to use it. But it’s clear he’s just picking a fight for now reason this way.

I agree but it’s not for no reason. If Ukrainians can pursue democracy and European values, so could Russians.

>> I agree but it’s not for no reason. If Ukrainians can pursue democracy and European values, so could Russians.

Fantasy outcome: Ukraine not only pushes Russia out, but takes back the regions Putin previously took from them. Russian citizens finally overthrow Putin and decide to put the whole empire back together - including Ukraine - with Volodymyr Zelenskyy as their leader. ;-)

this will be is a logistical nightmare and will take some time, days at least.

also lol @ the #stinger hashtag

> this will be is a logistical nightmare

Stingers are manufactured in Germany. Logistically, they need to load some crates into a few trucks and drive about thirteen hours. The logistics of limited warfare in modern Europe is frighteningly straightforward.

Is there some doubt that the Polish authorities will be more than happy to provide them with a police escort?

By involving more counties we are adding fuel to the fire. This is how you set up for a world war.

You get a World War by not resisting Hitler as early as possible. We’re witnessing a historical bravery of Ukrainian people, left to fight the evil Putin’s empire by themselves. Stop being such cowards.

> We’re witnessing a historical bravery of Ukrainian people,

This. So much this. My hat's off.

Don't know if this is propaganda, but I do not care. Awesome regardless:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60532715

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-chernihiv-russian-tanks-prot...

My country lost 60% of male population in WW1, and around 18% of total population in WW2. It crippled us forever. I think it's better to not rush into things.

The big question is, how much bravery can we show before Putin starts going all in with bigger weapons? Personally I would rather be a coward and not have my country involved even if it may possibly just be delaying the inevitable for when there is no choice.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/25/vladimir-p...

If you choose dishonor over war, you will only end up with both, against a stronger enemy.

Appeasement was tried before WWII and didn't work either.

This is how you hopefully deter Putin, by helping Ukraine defend itself and defeat his "special operation" militarilly.

Appeasement was also previously tried by not getting involved in Transnistria, Georgia, Crimea and Donbas.

Making effective use of all this tech requires training and infrastructure. Ukraine may not have that anymore.

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