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It’s not even about that.

It looks like Putin is making the correct calculation that the west would suffer more.

Look at the Chinese reaction, it is very unlikely he would be making this move without at least tacit Chinese support. He has an outlet for all of that energy and grain.

Where will Europe recover that supply from?

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From wherever China is buying it now.

You mean like Iran?

Oil is fungible to a significant degree, but oil politics are not.

Are you sure? Now Iran suddenly seems more likeable partner for oil trade than Russia. And Europe always wanted the JCPOA deal.

Yes, except now the Iranians also suddenly have significantly more leverage in negotiating a new treaty. Coming to a timely agreement there is not a foregone conclusion.

The key balance here is with the Iranians and the saudis. In all likelihood the nato response hinges on how much support they can count in the Middle East.

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