True, ultimately it comes down to which country is more willing to let their population suffer. I know where my money is.
It looks like Putin is making the correct calculation that the west would suffer more.
Look at the Chinese reaction, it is very unlikely he would be making this move without at least tacit Chinese support. He has an outlet for all of that energy and grain.
Where will Europe recover that supply from?
Oil is fungible to a significant degree, but oil politics are not.
The key balance here is with the Iranians and the saudis. In all likelihood the nato response hinges on how much support they can count in the Middle East.