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Comment by zx85wes | Hacker News Reader

I don't believe it was inevitable.

It was inevitable since 2014. The only thing that is surprising is that it took this long.

Whatever is inevitable for eight years is really not.

Well, if you were looking a bit more closely you would have noticed a lot of little steps all leading to that goal, so as far as I'm concerned it was inevitable, but you are of course entirely entitled to your own worldview.

Maybe not, if you're young enough to think eight years is a long time.

Then you did not listen to Putin's speech where he declares all territories which have once been part of the Russian empire as illegitimate states which should be forcibly reintegrated. He outright declared himself an Imperialist with dreams of empire. The only thing which would have dissuaded Putin was overwhelming force.

And what if Russia detonates a nuclear bomb over these incoming NATO troops?

Then there will be a hot nuclear war.

No something I welcome, but the calculations you are making don’t match up with reality.

How would you have it? Just let any nuclear armed state invade any country it wants? There has to be a place where the line is drawn.

I have trouble understanding your point of view. What are you suggesting? I hope not that US starts nuclear war with Russia over disagreement about Ukraine?

In the case that Russia drops a nuke on NATO troops, you believe that the US should just accept that with no response?

Russia has agency in this scenario. If they drop nukes first they are starting a nuclear war.

The only way it would have been avoidable is for the EU and NATO to withdraw their support (economic, political, military) from Ukraine, in order to enable the Kremlin to bring about a Russia-friendly regime by non-military means. Putin’s goal was always to turn Ukraine back into at least a vassal state of Russia. Given the western-oriented developments in Ukraine since 2014, the opportunity window was slowly closing, time was running out.

Official neutrality and a trade deal with both the EU and Russia?

You couldn’t prevent the Ukrainian people to predominantly prefer a western orientation, and to vote for a government with western values. The only conceivable way to really satisfy Putin would have been for the Ukraine to be controlled by Russia-aligned propaganda and media, probably with rigged elections, similar to Belarus.

Of course, Putin may have hoped that the Ukrainian public would "see the light" and realize that they are really Russian people (as Putin seems to think they ought to) and align themselves accordingly, but that would have been a pipe dream.

How, in your estimation, could it have been averted then?

The west doesn’t really hold the cards at the moment.

The West was ambivalent about eventual Ukraine membership in Nato for 8+ years. What has that achieved?

- If Nato had put a memorandum on Ukraine membership: Russia would have less of a reason to attack but Nato wouldn’t be able to help defend Ukraine in case of an attack

- Nato stays ambivalent about eventual membership: Russia is more likely to attack and, as stated by the Nato general secretary and the US president, Nato won’t help defend Ukraine in case of an attack

> memorandum

I assume you mean "moratorium"?

Yes :)

That's mostly because they have more to lose.

That doesn’t really answer the question.

You claimed that this wasn’t inevitable. From today’s vantage point, it seems pretty clear that this was Putin’s intent all along.

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