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Comment by _ph_ | Hacker News Reader

Gas is one of the few large sources of income in Russia. Reducing the gas trade is one of the few really direct sanctions possible. Even if it comes at a price, it is way better than to start shooting.

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They've been shooting there for 8 years and no one cared and you think that now it has to be payed for somehow? thats absurd

This is a reason sanctions don't work as people expect. China will simply buy those valuable gas. I do acknowledge that there would be transportation costs. In the end, Europe will suffer more and China will be happier. And, currently, with the price hike on gas, I think the EU will face more problems.

Geopolitics is not a game of morality, rather it's a game of logic. China, the US, and Russia seem to be playing very well. This is also one reason why India is not saying anything against them. The only victim I see is Europe.

The gas deal with China is only a fraction of what Europe buys at the moment.

> China will simply buy those valuable gas

With what pipeline ?

If China is not dumb (it isn't) they will pay that gas a fraction of what Europe is paying it, "or keep it underground." Unless they want to subsidize Russia against the USA. Europe doesn't matter. Every crisis shows that's only a geographical expression (I'm European.)

Have you followed the value of the ruble and the cost on Russian personal income and GDP since the sanctions after the Crimean invasion? They've been highly effective by almost all measures, the Russian economy is dependent on European LNG and oil purchasing, and the initial 2022 sanctions have sent the Russian markets spiraling further.

Here's a paper on their effectiveness if you don't believe me, Europe has more than just gas to power its economy - unlike Russia: https://www.jois.eu/files/2_481_Tyll%20et%20al.pdf

What are you talking about? This isn't about logic at all, if it were Putin wouldn't be putting troops in Ukraine. This is about saving face and not looking weak because one of his biggest fears (rightfully so) is ending up like Gaddafi.

There's literally nothing here for Russia to win, the west is rapidly moving away from fossil fuels and this will accelerate that. China may scoop up excess gas but it will be significantly less profitable for Russia.

Here's what Russia will be dealing with:

* Russians own significant assets in the west. These assets are vulnerable to seizure. These assets are held by the ultra wealthy Russians that keep Putin in power.

* The war is already unpopular in Russia. It's one thing to fight a war against a foreign enemy and another to fight a war against people who share common values and culture. 20k Russians showing up home in body bags will not help.

* Ukraine is in a significantly better place to defend itself.

There is no win here for Putin, only suffering the Russian people. At some point, a Russian version of the Arab spring is a possible outcome.

China will buy gas but they aren't overpaying and have the leverage to not need to overpay to Russia.

Russia needs China more than China needs Russia.

This will very likely increase gas prices around the world and they have enough consumers. They don't even have to fear closure of NS2 as a state, the company and investors might, but they will get compensated pretty extensively by mostly European tax payers. If that sound like strategy for you, it is a pretty stupid one.

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