I suspect if Germany would continued to develop its nuclear power rather than shutting it down, Russia would not have money for the new war. But then perhaps Germany was still grateful that Moscow allowed German reunification in 1990 and felt obliged to get gas from Russia.
Note also that Ukraine even after 8 years after loosing Crimea continued to transport Russian gas perfectly aware what Russia spent the money on.
To state 2: where it imports N amount of gas expensive.
Germany loses.
Geopolitics is not a game of morality, rather it's a game of logic. China, the US, and Russia seem to be playing very well. This is also one reason why India is not saying anything against them. The only victim I see is Europe.
Here's a paper on their effectiveness if you don't believe me, Europe has more than just gas to power its economy - unlike Russia: https://www.jois.eu/files/2_481_Tyll%20et%20al.pdf
Russia needs China more than China needs Russia.
With what pipeline ?
There's literally nothing here for Russia to win, the west is rapidly moving away from fossil fuels and this will accelerate that. China may scoop up excess gas but it will be significantly less profitable for Russia.
Here's what Russia will be dealing with:
* Russians own significant assets in the west. These assets are vulnerable to seizure. These assets are held by the ultra wealthy Russians that keep Putin in power.
* The war is already unpopular in Russia. It's one thing to fight a war against a foreign enemy and another to fight a war against people who share common values and culture. 20k Russians showing up home in body bags will not help.
* Ukraine is in a significantly better place to defend itself.
There is no win here for Putin, only suffering the Russian people. At some point, a Russian version of the Arab spring is a possible outcome.
This cuts of a source of cash from russia, and means that should they chose to throw a strop again, they can't strong arm germany into dithering.
Even 2009 at the former height of the Ukraine Gas dispute, exports only got a little disrupted, mostly to Ukraine itself.
2) Russia is already flaky, expensive, and thieving.
Can you include some links since you seem to be so certain? Both Nord Stream 1 and the land pipeline are still active, I'm not aware of any plans to stop those, maybe you are?
> 2) Russia is already flaky, expensive, and thieving.
It's most certainly not nearly as expensive as Qatar or US LNG. Do you care to list some links or did you just make this up? Also, when did it steal natgas from Germany, exactly?
It doesn't suffice, though. The sanctions would have to be all-encompassing, similar to the ones that were imposed on Iran, in order to have a strong effect.