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Russia claimed it was a military drill. Also Russian military active personnel is 1,014,000, so most of it was not at the border. Also, no one really gave a convincing reason why Russia would benefit from invading Ukraine now.

Does US leadership have an infinite reserve of credibility so that no matter how many times they are wrong or don't have a convincing case in the first place, they are to be trusted?

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The Russian military is literally in an attack position along of hundreds of kilometers of the border in Russia, Belarus and the Black Sea. Russia deployed critical combat capabilities, including ballistic-missile systems, electronic-warfare platforms, munitions, field hospitals. Around 70% of their military capability is there.

Russia evacuated their embassy in Kyiv.

This is not American hearsay, the entire world is looking at this. The satellite images clearly show the military buildup. The exercices are used as a cover to deploy additional capabilities, but they don't cover much.

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