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Comment by buscoquadnary | Hacker News Reader

There's a joke I've seen circulating recently on the internet that I found amusing. "Do you know what the difference between a conspiracy theorist and reality is? About 6 months."

Apart from that Canada thing I know many people who were labelled a "consipracy theorist" for saying the virus came from Wuhan lab, they were labelled nutjobs for saying that the government would implement vaccine passports to restrict where you could and couldn't go. They said the government would force you to be vaccinated, etc.

My stance on those issues is not necessarily the same as those friends, but I am just saying, it seems the conspiracy theorists are hitting quite a few points lately.

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I really hate the demonization of the phrase "conspiracy theory". Why is it so crazy to entertain the idea that the rich and powerful who control major institutions may be working together?

That statement in particular isn't what's crazy, of course various people of the elite strata will work and socialize and collaborate together to various extents.

The craziness is the specifics of certain conspiracy theories. For example the idea that covid itself is a conspiracy, or the there is a conspiracy to suppress ivermectin.

I have to agree with the view that outlandish conspiracy thinking isn't only wrong, it is actively dangerous and should be argued against strenuously. It was a large part of Nazi propaganda that motivated a genocide, so that is an existence proof of a danger associated with such unhinged thinking if it's allowed to go unchallenged in public discourse.

Because they're rich and powerful and its easier to belittle people with genuine concerns and with some incomplete evidence than it is to answer questions that might threaten their rich and powerfulness. And because there are a few who take their theories to extremes without evidence, its easy to lump all together with the crazies and demean them.

If you throw enough stuff at a wall, eventually some of it will stick.

It does seem like there are some folks out there who, for some reason, want to be overly broad as a way of rejecting an idea more intensely. I don't really get this instinct. In particular:

> I know many people who were labelled a "consipracy theorist" for saying the virus came from Wuhan lab

It was always the case that the right answer to this is, "we haven't seen enough evidence to say this is the case. It is possible, but there are also lots of natural sources it could have come from." This is still the case as far as I know. (?)

"Insufficient evidence of X so far" being misinterpreted as "X is impossible and if you believe in X you are a bad person" is pretty much the story of science communications for this pandemic. It seems like a really big problem.

> they were labelled nutjobs for saying that the government would implement vaccine passports to restrict where you could and couldn't go.

Restricting movement was always on the table. If someone was called a nutjob for understanding that, the person who called them a nutjob wasn't really taking the situation very seriously. The conspiracy theorist (in the pejorative sense) angle comes from the implication that there's some evil behind-the-scenes motivation for it, when it is just an expected pandemic response.

> They said the government would force you to be vaccinated, etc.

Same here. Mandatory vaccinations have always been a possibility in some places. That's not a conspiracy theory (in the pejorative sense). The idea that this implies some malicious behavior on the part of the government, is.

Other than the lab leak thing, what other conspiracy theories were there that turned out to be possible after all or even true?

I'm not aware of any government forcing you to get vaccinated, I'm not sure what you're referring to.

I am pretty sure having to show a QR code that can prevent you from participating in society that can be retroactively deactivated was a conspiracy theory. But then in Israel, they did exactly that (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-requires-co...).

Anyone without a booster had their ability to participate in society "deactivated", like in a bad Science Fiction movie. What's more terrifying are the people who want to convince the rest of us that this should be normal and is not completely insane.

That would be the most boring science fiction movie ever made. At least in Canada, we're talking about going to a restaurant or to the gym during a pandemic. It's not normal because pandemics aren't normal. My threshold for outrage is just higher I guess.

In other parts of the world, it was a requirement for every store and venue including supermarkets (e.g. Australia). Even worse, now that contact tracing has largely been discarded, those same governments that pushed out such measures are yet to repeal them.

I'm glad it's not like that here. In Canada, as far as I know, it was only non-essential businesses. For the longest time even gyms and pools were excluded at least where I live.

We had to show the pass to get into Walmart and Costco here in quebec. And also for the state owned liquor stores, and any mall/shopping center

  "Liquor stores are not essential, you alcoholic you!!1!"

You have actual vaccine pass requirements in Canada. I don't think they're statutory, just by fiat pretend-authorized via a state of emergency that was (presumably, maybe) legally invoked.

A few off the top of my head that are extremely well-corroborated:

Jeffery Epstein (nothing in particular, just literally everything about him)

Gulf of Tonkin

MK Ultra

Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment

And those are just the very obvious ones. I find that a Bayesian way of looking at the world tends to drive up the credibility of various "conspiracy theories" which would otherwise seem fairly unlikely.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jeffrey_Epstein (or other pages about his case)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin_incident

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_MKUltra

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuskegee_Syphilis_Study

I haven't heard of the last three, got to look those up but Epstein? Was that a conspiracy theory at any point? I'm not sure that counts as one but I'm not sure.

The collective internet "underground" knew he was a massive sex trafficker, and that he consistently engaged with the world's elite, for years. Then he got arrested and promptly died. It's unlikely he wasn't committing similar crimes the whole time in between his arrests, but he wasn't being investigated.

> The collective internet "underground" knew he was a massive sex trafficker, and that he consistently engaged with the world's elite, for years. [...] but he wasn't being investigated.

Pretty sure that's been known for a long time, and that investigations (at least in name) have taken place:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein#First_criminal...

What am I missing? Is it just the "pedophile island" part in particular? (Genuinely curious.)

I think you're missing that the punishments he got were extremely light, likely due to his connections. He never had remorse nor reform. He and maxwell continued to do what they're so infamously known for throughout the 2010s. The conspiracy is that this could probably have been stopped were it not for "someone" getting in the way.

From the article you linked, here's just a few snippets that showed he was not treated like he should have been.

"After a contested hearing in January 2011, and an appeal, he stayed registered in New York State as a "level three" (high risk of repeat offense) sex offender, a lifelong designation.[122][123] At that hearing the Manhattan District Attorney argued unsuccessfully that the level should be reduced to a low-risk "level one" and was chided by the judge. Despite opposition from Epstein's lawyer that he had a "main" home in the U.S. Virgin Islands, the judge confirmed he personally must check in with the New York Police Department every 90 days. Though Epstein had been a level-three registered sex offender in New York since 2010, the New York Police Department never enforced the 90-day regulation, though non-compliance is a felony."

"On June 30, 2008, after Epstein pleaded guilty to a state charge (one of two) of procuring for prostitution a girl below age 18,[117] he was sentenced to 18 months in prison. While most convicted sex offenders in Florida are sent to state prison, Epstein was instead housed in a private wing of the Palm Beach County Stockade and, according to the sheriff's office, was after 3+1⁄2 months allowed to leave the jail on "work release" for up to 12 hours a day, 6 days a week. This contravened the sheriff's own policies requiring a maximum remaining sentence of 10 months and making sex offenders ineligible for the privilege. He was allowed to come and go outside of specified release hours."

" According to the Miami Herald, the non-prosecution agreement "essentially shut down an ongoing FBI probe into whether there were more victims and other powerful people who took part in Epstein's sex crimes". At the time, this halted the investigation and sealed the indictment. The Miami Herald said: "Acosta agreed, despite a federal law to the contrary, that the deal would be kept from the victims.""

And yes, this is all has been known. What's not known is why, which is the conspiracy. The why is extremely important because of the likelihood that some of the world's most powerful are involved.

That makes sense I think, thanks for the detailed explanation!

I sure hope I don't "mysteriously" go missing in a few days...

You probably won't, and that's barely funny, ha

The former secretary of labor Alex Acosta, who prosecuted Epstein back in 2008, made a remark that he was told that Epstein "belonged to intelligence" and that the matter was "above his pay grade", which is why he offered him such a lenient plea deal.

It's not even concealed

You can add COINTELPRO to the list as well.

> I'm not aware of any government forcing you to get vaccinated, I'm not sure what you're referring to.

I guess it depends on what the meaning of "force" is.

If to you "force" means a literal gun literally aimed at your head (not literally as in figuratively) then you're right, no force has been applied yet.

If to you "force" includes regulations and arm-twisting of employers and retailers to require employees and patrons to get vaccinated, then force most definitely has been applied. That force does involve figurative guns to people's heads. If the government decrees that employers must do X, employers will do X on pain of whatever the decree says (fines, cancellation of business licenses, etc.). Fines are backed by guns: if you scofflaw enough then you will end up in prison, and if you resist arrest you will end up roughed up or dead, as in the government's agents will rough you up and possibly kill you, and they'll use firearms in the process.

I.e., the threat of force is force.

The law recognizes this. "Assault with a deadly weapon" doesn't mean that the weapon was actually physically applied to the victim -- it means that de minimis a threat was made to apply it physically to the victim.

It's quite disingenuous to say that governments haven't forced anyone to get vaccinated. In many cases there are literally no laws requiring it, or requiring anyone to require it, but the impression given to the public, and to employers, retailers, etc., is very much that force is being threatened. Even if in the end there are no actual laws making it so, for the average person there might as well have been.

Back to assault with a deadly weapon, I doubt that using a realistic toy weapon would vitiate the charge. If the victim cannot trivially tell what that the deadly weapon isn't actually a deadly weapon, then the assault has to be considered as being with a deadly weapon. The same must be true for coercion with pretend-laws and decrees -- if the victims are led by their victimizers to believe that force is being threatened, then force is being threatened.

> what other conspiracy theories were there that turned out to be possible after all or even true?

Lab leak, cloth masks being ineffective, Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction being made up, Vietnam war Gulf of Tonkin, Epstein Pedophile island. JFK multiple gun theory hasn't been proven but seems more likely than not.

These are all now generally accepted facts but were once considered conspiracy theories.

It surprises me that an adult (that presumably lives in the US) wouldn't be aware of at least some of these.

Keep my civil my friend. I'm not from the US.

OK. I’m not either. But surely there’s some local equivalents?

Stating that conspiracy theories turn out to be true seems to imply that nobody actually conspires to hide anything.

rarely turn out to be true, ahem

Pretending the threat of violence is not violence is not civil.

Australia and Canada both have vaccine mandates. You're either being willfully ignorant or trolling. If the later, 10/10 great bait mate.

You know that these aren't forcing you to get vaccinated and only apply to a small part of the population. In Canada, you don't have to get vaccinated. It's just not true. Do certain professional groups lose their jobs if they don't sure, can others not fully perform their duties like crossing the international border, yes.

That's coercion.

You might as well say "Well those actresses didn't have to interact with winestien, they could have just not be actresses."

Only if force were strictly physical violence and not the threat of it could what you say be true. It's not.

Even if they aren't being "forced" (and I would argue they are) it's unpleasant enough that you should be able to understand why there's a protest.

> I'm not aware of any government forcing you to get vaccinated, I'm not sure what you're referring to.

This is probably due to a lack of language skills on your part. Multiple countries are discussing it and it's de facto already required in France, for example.

Telling businesses that they have to fire people who aren't vaccinated is basically the government forcing people to get vaccinated.

It's just not a thing that's happening on a large scale.

My brother is in charge of HR analytics for a large defense contractor in the US. He absolutely has had to fire thousands of people for refusing to get vaccinated. You may agree with this policy, but let's not pretend it's not happening on a large scale. It absolutely is.

My wife's cousin is an RN who works in the ER of a large hospital in the Atlanta metro. She caught and recovered from COVID in early 2021. She was terminated for refusing to get vaccinated (she's in her late 20s, and was concerned about the menstrual side effects of the vaccine experienced by many nurses she works with).

It sure has happened in the U.S. and Canada, and in large scale. To say otherwise is to be terribly misinformed or blatant gaslighting.

This is an area that is heavily impacted by selection bias.

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