I’ve wondered, instead of betting on “truth” why not bet on the outcome of a webscraping query, where the code is open source?

Example, I publish some code that scrapes the outcome of an upcoming sports game. It returns a True/False payload.

Bettors can examine my source code and see the exact time when it will be run. They can then place their bet on the code itself.

Sure the code could point to a bad actor and someone could pull the rug, but you could also take the consensus result from a few trusted sources, e.g. Google sports, ESPN, etc.