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The notion of FB abandoning a market of 500m comparatively rich people just because they can’t shuttle data around seems rather absurd to me

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I also don't think that they would completely abandon it, but if non-targeted advertisements are not generating enough value, they could switch to a paid subscription model. They would certainly lose many users, but as all competitors have the same issue, their monopoly position may allow it.

No data == no income for FB?

But it's no data out of Europe, not no data. Don't want to be governed by EU privacy laws medium/long term?

California's CCPA/CCRA is about the same as GDPR, and increasingly used as the template for state-level privacy laws in the US. Are they going to leave the US as well?

Now there is an issue with the extraterritorial overreach of the US CLOUD Act, which means the surveillance dragnet is extended to any US company, even if the data is hosted on servers outside the US. A strict reading of GDPR and Schrems II would mean that it is actually unlawful for Facebook to offer services in the EU.

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