In France, between January 1st and 16th, vaccinated people accounted for 60% of the new hospitalizations. We, like most of Europe, have 90+% of adult population fully vaccinated, and are nowhere near "being done".
Let's say it's 80%. 80/20. Primary vax status probably hasn't changed too dramatically in 1 month.
p(hospitalized | vaxxed) = p(vaxxed | hospitalized) * p(hospitalized) / p(vaxxed)
= 0.6 * p(hospitalized) / 0.80
= 0.75 * p(hospitalized)
---
p (hospitalized | unvaxxed) = p (unvaxxed | hospitalized) * p(hospitalized) / p(unvaxxed)
= 0.4 * p(hospitalized) / 0.2
= 2 * p(hospitalized)
Vaccination gives a 2.67x reduction in hospitalizations (against omicron which all the anti-vaxxers are saying the vaccines don't do anything against).
With your 90% figure, it becomes 2/3 instead of 3/4 and 4 instead of 2, which is 6x, confirming what the other replier got.
[1] https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/23973...
Page 28 on vaccine efficacy.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...
Same with age and risk-factor cohorts. We could repeat the probability calculation for each cohort if we could collect those data, but it would probably make the vaccine even more effective: Presumably, more higher-risk people are double/triple/quad vaxxed at this point, so whatever rate they show up to the hospital is higher than what the average healthier person could expect.
"Being done" with covid is only a political decision, and no percentage appears to be high enough for them.
They would be a much smaller and manageable number, and on average much older/vulnerable than they are now (vaccination basically lowers your risk to that of someone 20-30 years younger)
More figures from France : the unvaccinated 8% account for 39% of hospitalizations, 54% of intensive care admissions, 46% of Covid deaths.
This is a hugely outsized effect, so there's still enormous potential for drastically improving the situation in hospitals with just a few more percentage points of vaccinated people.
I didn't mean 90%.
If 5% of the population is susceptible that's enough to overload the hospital system during a wave. It really doesn't take much with this virus.
And Delta's transmissibility really destroyed the destroyed the notion of herd immunity. The correct number should be 100% vaccinated.
And its still 90% unvaccinated people filling up the hospitals, even though you're highly vaccinated.
Once you hit the hospital percentages matching the population percentages then the "natural immunity" enthusiasts will have finally all basically caught it sufficiently to gain immunity the hard way and it'll be done.
People with weakened immune systems and other health issues are more likely to be vaccinated. But they're less likely to have a robust immune response to the vaccine.