Tesla has really fallen behind. I think Karpathy will be fired this year if his team can't achieve at least L4.
Ah so Karpathy will be fired this year. Because they're not reaching L4. FSD isn't even L3 yet.
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Level 4 _ High Automation
System capability: The car can operate without human input or oversight but only under select conditions defined by factors such as road type or geographic area. • Driver involvement: In a shared car restricted to a defined area, there may not be any. But in a privately owned Level 4 car, the driver might manage all driving duties on surface streets then become a passenger as the car enters a highway.
Example: Google’s now-defunct Firefly pod-car prototype, which had neither pedals nor a steering wheel and was restricted to a top speed of 25 mph.
This is the kind of setup I can't wrap my head around. The car might "require" you to take over when you exit the highway, but it can't exactly "make" you. If you fall asleep on the freeway and the car isn't willing/able to drive at the end of your journey, or in edge cases if you were to pass out, etc. what does it do when it gets to your designated exit, or to the final exit of a designated highway? Are there going to be a bunch of cars all stacked up with flashers on the shoulder by every off-ramp waiting for their people to wake up / quit playing on their phones and engage manual mode?
As you say, city driving is hard, but there are a lot of trucks that cross the US on freeways that are easy to automate.
You're right, though, that the challenge is that it also makes it easier for everyone to opt for cars over mass transit.
But Tesla within a year with no lidar? Yeah, no. Not happening.
-- Elon Musk
He set the milestone.