This is purely my opinion: Lincoln’s point was that the threat of civil war or violent dissent (what we today would call domestic terrorism) is a much greater threat to the US than foreign states. I think this remains true today. In fact, what you mention when you say a fracturing of states within was exactly what he was talking about.
A foreign state would need to cross the Atlantic ocean, contend with the most powerful Navy on earth several times over, land in either Canada or Mexico, both of which are US allies, and then mount a land invasion on the US homeland. It’s hard to imagine how that would be possible.
You raise a good point when you say crushing defeat does not necessarily happen on the conventional battlefield. Nuclear weapons create the possibility of MAD, and other “battlefields” like the cyberspace or global economic warfare have developed since Lincoln’s time. I still think the essence of what he said is true though: the greatest threat to the US comes from within.