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> It 100% is all about Russian preventing a rival military base in a border country.

Not so sure about that. To me this looks more like a diversion from internal political problems, "Wag the dog" style.

It's slightly more than that. Russia (Putin) can't stand a successful democracy on his border, especially one that used to be in the USSR. For some reason, he ignores Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. But Ukraine? It's a direct threat to Putin's power if it is successful as a real democracy, if it turns toward the west. Not just because it diminishes Russia's sphere of influence, but because it shows a path that Russians could take - a path that leaves Putin not at the top of "the vertical of power".

Just to add - Putin defers action on the other neighbors rather than ignores. He'd be happy to weaken them internally or via disinfo campaigns.

Bigger fish to fry at the moment in his USSR2.0 drive.

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