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Yeah I suspect people have wised up to the fact that the alumni base of a program matters more than pretty much anything else. So unless you’re at a prestige program at a prestige school, college probably isn’t going to pay off as well. Thus the piling in to elite universities while overall enrollment drops off.

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You've hit the nail on the head here.

Education is primarily a prestige product. Secondarily, the social and alumni effects of the network around you when you attend. Thirdly, it is the college campus experience. Fourthly, it is what you actually learn.

If you just price the value of each of these four pieces, the dynamic in the market is completely explained. Community college still provides learning, but not much on the other three factors. That is, it has become poor value for the fees it charges despite them being lower in absolute terms than prestige schools.

The prestige is all that matters. It’s really the only chance someone has to achieve class mobility; i.e. a kid from the working class might get into an Ivy League prestige program and rub elbows with the children of rich and powerful people, thus getting access to that network.

But if you’re going to a second-tier state university I really wonder if any of those students are getting a positive payback.

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