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Comment by lern_too_spel | Hacker News Reader

Most of the country. There are only a few places where the vaccination rate is already high enough that a mandate couldn't increase it at least 10%.

The scare quotes around "fully" are unnecessary. Two doses is enough to drive down hospitalization risk to flu levels. Boosters aren't necessary from a public health perspective because boosting the already vaccinated has a miniscule effect on total hospitalizations. (Sure, if you want them to reduce your own risk, that's fine because they have been approved. If you want them to reduce disruptions in your workplace, that is also fine. Just don't expect to materially impact health system availability.) Vaccinating the unvaccinated has a much larger effect. Alternatively, Omicron seems like it will reach them before mandates take effect or Paxlovid supply is ready, with worse outcomes on the health system.

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> Two doses is enough to drive down hospitalization risk to flu levels. Boosters aren't necessary from a public health perspective because boosting the already vaccinated has a miniscule effect on total hospitalizations.

If you look at the data, it appears that vaccinating the young and healthy has "a miniscule effect on total hospitalizations", too.

There are very few young and healthy in the parts of the country where vaccination rates are low. The last Covid hospitalization surge in the US was mostly working age adults, whom the mandates would apply to.

> There are very few young and healthy in the parts of the country where vaccination rates are low

I'm not quite sure what to make of that claim. There are an awful lot of unvaccinated young people in the USA.

"13.2 million of US children and adolescents ages 12- 17 are fully vaccinated. [this] represent[s] 53% of 12-17 year-olds"[0] (as of 5 Jan 2022)

also

"Child vaccination rates vary widely across states. In 10 states, at least three-quarters of children (age 12-17) have received at least 1 dose, and in 16 states, fewer than 50% have received 1 dose."

[0] https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19...

You missed the emphasized part of your quote, and you didn't quote whom the mandates affect.

I was talking ( see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29904115 ) about the effect of vaccinating the young and healthy, I didn't mention mandates...

You then said "there are few young and healthy in parts of country where vaccination rates are low".

I'm still not understanding that statement. Across the globe - and across the USA - there are loads of unvaccinated young people, and (happily) most of them are healthy, and (happily) the data show that young healthy people are at very low risk from Covid19 even without vaccination.

What do mandates have to do with any of that?

I was talking about mandates in the comment your comment replied to. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29903853

Do you understand now? The entire point of this thread is that vaccine mandates will allow society to open up, which is not yet possible due to health system constraints, nor was it possible earlier. Your doctor quote is nonsensical in that it doesn't say anything about when society can open up. Today? When the pandemic first started? Obviously not — only when immunity is high enough or effective treatment is readily available.

From that same Dr. Pollard:

“When we do open, there will be a period with a bump in infections, which is why winter is probably not the best time. But that’s a decision for the policy makers, not the scientists.

“Our approach has to switch, to rely on the vaccines and the boosters. The greatest risk is still the unvaccinated.”

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/omicron-wave-pandemic-loc...

> The entire point of this thread is that vaccine mandates will allow society to open up [..]

I think that claim remains to be substantiated, to put it mildly.

The mechanism is straightforward.

1. Vaccine mandates increase vaccination rates.

2. Increased vaccination rates mean the health system won't be overwhelmed, allowing society to open up.

The doctor you yourself cited agrees with step 2, as do most of the governments in the world that are managing their countries' transitions to endemicity. There are multiple examples showing that step 1 is correct.

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