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Comment by nostrademons | Hacker News Reader

The challenge is the lack of data on long-term effects of COVID. Preliminary studies have linked it to cognitive declines [1], diabetes [2], and chronic fatigue [3]. And while death from COVID in a preschooler is about a 1-in-100,000 occurrence, long COVID and other chronic outcomes seem to be much more common. I've heard figures of about 5% or 1 in 20.

Few parents would willingly sign their preschooler (or themselves) up for intellectual disabilities, type-1 diabetes, or chronic fatigue syndrome.

[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5...

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7102e2.htm

[3] https://www.therecord.com/news/waterloo-region/2022/01/08/lo...

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Where have you heard those figures from? (I assume you are telling me that 5% of pre-schoolers, in your experience, have had chronic outcomes from Covid).

Yes, I have seen many preliminary studies linking Covid to many different long-term health problems [1]. Personally, and especially as Covid has been around for over 2 years at this point, I strongly prefer to avoid the obvious long-term damage caused to my kids by the disruption of their academic and social development.

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/10/01/restless-an...

I listed sources in my original comment. From the first link, they observed 4.8% of lab-confirmed cases exhibited continuing symptoms, and the average effect on cognitive performance was 0.47 standard deviations (equivalent to about 8 IQ points, or roughly the effect of a stroke). The CDC study has some methodological problems (detailed in nradov & DannyCasolaro's sibling posts), but previous meta-analyses have documented similar effects; they covered only severely-ill patients, but came up with a pooled proportion of 14%. Chronic fatigue is reported as a symptom 6 months following in 46% of cases [2], but again, that study is for adults.

[1] https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/18/1055071...

[2] https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3425/11/6/760

>that study is for adults

Given the incredible age-based disparity in severity of Covid, I wonder if any of those results (such as they are) are even applicable to our discussion.

The diabetes study you cited appears to be junk science. I'm not claiming that COVID-19 absolutely doesn't cause diabetes, just that we won't know one way or another until larger studies are performed with proper methods.

https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/does-covid19-cause-d...

Also, color me incredulous that we're getting reliable long term data... 2 years after a disease appeared in humans.

We'll get long term data, after a long term has passed.

And yes, there are always going to be >0 people with permanent organ damage. Because disease progression in a human host is a complex system. But what actually matters is the incidence rate at scale.

Or, to put it another way, everyone has a >0 chance of winning the lottery, but does that mean they should invest in lottery tickets?

The CDC study does have methodological problems, but there's also been prior research that suggests similar effects (in more severely ill patients), as well as observing destruction of insulin-creating pancreas cells by COVID19. Here's a meta-analysis of 8 studies on the topic, with similar conclusions, done across China, Italy, and the U.S.:

https://dom-pubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dom.142...

Like much of what the CDC puts out these days (e.g. "natural immunity is less effective than vaccine-induced"), their diabetes study is junk science: https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/does-covid19-cause-d...

Just curious, have you seen any studies or evidence on whether omicron has caused the micro-clotting that seems to be the cause of some of these long-term effects? Everyone seems to be saying the effects of omicron are not as bad, but that talk seems to be limited to short-term effects, not the longer-term ones you brought up.

It still targets the ACE2 receptors found throughout different human tissue, and reportedly can bind even more effectively to it. The difference in severity is reportedly because it replicates 70x faster in the bronchus but 10x slower in the lung tissue, leading to more bronchitis and upper respiratory involvement and less pneumonia.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's lower incidence of chronic complications than Delta and earlier variants, though. Long COVID seems to be associated with (but not unique to) more severe cases. If there's pneumonia or ARDS, there's a much easier pathway into the bloodstream than if it infects mucus membrane tissue in the upper airways. It likely can still cause long COVID, but at a lower rate corresponding to its generally lower severity.

Obviously, full studies of long-term effects are lacking, since Omicron has only been out for a month and a half.

Ok, but what are the long term effects of every other virus preschoolers could get? I doubt that covid is unique in that respect

Those are not insubstantial:

Diabetes has been documented as a symptom of cytomegalovirus (mono), mumps, rubella, rotavirus, and enteroviruses (polio and hand-foot-mouth). Fatigue is a symptom of lyme disease and mono.

I don't want my kids to get any of those either, and they were vaccinated for mumps, rubella, rotavirus, and polio by age 1. If I have the choice of being cautious for 3 months until a vaccine is available for COVID, I'll take it.

Mononucleosis is caused by the Epstein-Barr virus, not by CMV.

Apparently it's both:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytomegalovirus

Most cases of mono are caused by EBV, but CMV primarily presents as mono, and sometimes pneumonia.

EBV/mono is another common childhood illness with lots of nasty potential chronic complications, including lymphoma, other cancers, CFS, and autoimmune diseases like lupus, MS, and rheumatoid arthritis.

Worst illness I’ve ever had. Probably. Knocked me out cold for six weeks, lingering symptoms for months and months. All to play a stupid spin the bottle kissing game.

It looks to me like most people here are making the same argument, just applying it to different sides of the debate.

There is a lack of data on the long term effects of the disease, as well as the recommended treatment.

what are the long term effects of all the other BS young kids are subjected to as a result of all of this?

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