I hate crypto but I think this is a pretty easy trade long at $40k.

I am bearish long term though because the narrative that anyone can get rich from crypto has time decay.

It doesn't just have to go up but it has to go up so much that the guy investing $10k thinks they will be "rich" from it someday. That is just so unsustainable as price goes up.

When that narrative is lost then it is just standard commodity speculation like gold/silver.

It took gold and silver 27 years to take out the 1980 high. The oversupply from mining that very high prices create makes the boring bear market longer.