I kind of disagree with this line of reasoning. I think very successful people sometimes overestimate possible threats, and it may be one of the reasons for their success. I had this realization when watching the most dominant Age of Empires player stream once. I once struck by how paranoid he was about what the opponent might be doing, but it meant he was constantly prepared for worst-case scenarios. He seemed genuinely worried most of the game, rather than confident like I expected given his first-rank status.