> Two things seem pretty clear from the data. The first is that myocarditis rates are much higher in unvaccinated young men who get COVID than those who get the vaccine. And the second is that you almost certainly will get COVID eventually.

Wouldn't you need to look at the

P(covid | no_vaccine) * covid_myocarditus_risk

vs

P(covid | vaccine) * covid_myocarditus_risk + vaccine_myocarditus_risk

Also this should be during the vaccine covid prevention efficacy window