How much are you ready to bet that Macron won't run? Because he's currently polling at 25% with at least 15% of respondents who are certain to show up and cast a ballot for him. No chance he'll score close to 10%.
His stepson runs a poll agency, I'd take the 25% with a shovel of salt! Even if he runs, he's sure to lose for Pécresse because she's new, so people aren't already fed up with her.
Come on, all the polling agencies consistently show the same data. If Pécresse gets to the second run then she may well win, as polling data also shows.