> - Le Pen will narrowly lose to Macron in the second round of the French election,

Let me counter that: Macron won't run for a second time to avoid the humiliation of having a low score under 10%.

Valérie Pécresse will be elected president winning over Zemmour. She will do the same things as Macron and will be as hated in 5 years from now.

> but the Zemmour + Le Pen total will be a majority.

I agree on that.