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Comment by sudosysgen | Hacker News Reader

Yes, and WAY higher than the risk of serious symptoms for the virus. For males 18-29 the risk of hospitalization is 0.4% compared to 0.1% for myocarditis, and most myocarditis cases do not require hospitalization. Risk of severe disease is of course much more than risk of hospitalization.

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That 0.4% chance is not random though - it's heavily weighted toward 18-29 year olds with severe existing co-morbidities, extremely high BMI's, etc.

For an otherwise healthy 18-29 year old, it appears that the risks from taking the vaccine are comparable / slightly exceed the risks of getting Covid.

Your statement that most myocarditis cases do not require hospitalization is inconsistent with the public health data Ontario is releasing - it's closer to 60%+ of (confirmed) myocarditis cases that require hospitalization.

(https://twitter.com/KoenSwinkels/status/1462266769880621056/...)

Wait a second. You went from one dataset to another. You can't do that without re-doing the entire analysis.

According to the dataset you are citing, the rate of myocarditis for 18-29 yo. is 129 per million, which is 0.0129%.

COVID hospitalization rates are 0.4%.

So with that dataset instead of this one, you run as 40x higher chance to be hospitalized from COVID than from vaccine-related myocarditis.

And it is quite likely that comorbities have an effect in vaccine-related myocarditis hospitalizations.

I am older than 40 and according to qcovid my risk of hospitalization is about 0,1%, so I doubt your 0,4% number. I am slightly overweight, which increases my risk by about 20%. But I doubt all the 18-29 year olds in your group are so obese that they get to 0,4%.

I don't know about qcovid but these two sources disagree : https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33729203/ https://riskcalc.org/COVID19Hospitalization/

qcovid.org gives an evaluation of the risk of catching and then being hospitalized from Covid, whereas your sources give the risk of being hospitalized when tested positive for Covid. Depending on the testing regime, the latter number may also be biased towards people who are already sick, as they may be more likely to be tested.

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