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Comment by sixQuarks | Hacker News Reader

This article is so cringey. The author is using Tesla as an example of a bubble stock, for which he is sure Offers no attractive returns in the future. He dismisses a “naïve” student who presents the opposite picture.

I will bet anyone $1,000 this author will look like the idiot in 5 years while the student was right all along.

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The point of the article is that bubbles involve belief in the superiority of an equity without reference to fundamental value.

You and the student appear to have a large amount of belief in this equity, but neither one of you offers evidence...

Tesla has a forward looking 12mo P/E of only 100 just with its current operation selling 1 million vehicles per year. It's growth rate is 50%+ per year, by 2030 it should be selling 15-20 million vehicles per year. Tesla can justify it's current valuation solely with its automotive business, but that's just the tip of the iceberg. Other areas of growth and profit that will likely outperform the auto business:

- Energy Storage and Distribution (including Solar Roofs)

- Full Self Driving, Robotaxis

- AI as a service

- Insurance

- Charging Network: Access Fees / Restaurants / Convenience Goods

Like I said, put your money where your mouth is if you're so sure the author is correct here.

> It's growth rate is 50%+ per year, by 2030 it should be selling 15-20 million vehicles per year.

I can't wait until 2040, when Tesla is selling 5 billion vehicles per year! </snark>

Really though, I don't think it is rational to believe that kind of growth rate is sustainable...

Tesla is severely supply constrained. Wait times in some areas is one year. They could easily sell 3-4 million this year if they had the supply, and this is before their $25k car which should be available by 2025.

> They could easily sell 3-4 million this year if they had the supply

Reminds me of a story.

A man walks into a shop and asks for a dozen eggs.

Shopkeeper: Sure thing. That will be $50.

Customer: (shocked) But, the shop on the other side of the road is selling them for a buck each.

Shopkeeper: So, why don't you go buy your eggs there...

Customer: Because they are all out of eggs today.

Shopkeeper: Once, i'm all out of eggs, then I too sell them for a buck each.

I don't see how this relates at all.

How would your assessment of Tesla's value change if you learned each of this items is not profitable for the foreseeable future?

For example it is certain that FSD is not happening any time soon. I am not even sure what AI as a service means or why Tesla would be competitive in this field. Insurance already has well established incumbents.

Not only that but Tesla is going from having very little competition in EVs to more or less every current manufacturer offering them in the next few years, in addition to new EV-only companies. Assuming their growth trajectory wont change as that unfolds is naive.

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