Comment by verisimi | Hacker News Reader

Comment by verisimi | Hacker News Reader

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Well, apparently mummification has happened accidentally.

But have you ever heard about Piltdown Man? I was taught this as fact, when I was at school (and I'm not _that_ old): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piltdown_Man

It is now an admitted fake. Why would they fake it?

Anyway - it seems that sometimes this research is faked. Is it possible that in 30 years some of those examples are also admitted as fakes?

(you can also look into: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bone_Wars)

I actually think it is possible for a body to be buried in a bog, and perhaps be in reasonable condition after 100s of years.

Do you think an egg would last though? For 1000 years (as per another commentor), until it fossilises? And then not be assimilated into the rock that it is surrounded by? And then be found? And then be cracked open to reveal the skeleton inside?

Can I get some odds on that please!!

Yep, someone 100+ years ago faked the record and therefore we can't trust anything at all ever. No-sir-ee Bob! The Young Earth Creationists are right, and I'll use the Bible as my sole source of truth. /s

Here's 2,500 year old eggs from a tomb. https://www.archaeology.org/news/7502-190327-china-ancient-e... .

Here's 500 year old eggs from another tomb. https://en.dahe.cn/2019/12-12/567243.html

> And then be cracked open

It was not cracked open. Strawman exaggeration for effect is how rhetoric got a bad name.

> Can I get some odds on that please

Yes, it's low. Shall I pull a number out of my ass and say 1 in a trillion?

Now, can I get an estimate on the number of eggs laid in a 100 million year period?

I'll pull another number of my ass and say a population of 10 billion egg-laying creatures, living 10 years, with 10% of eggs making it to adulthood. That's 10 billion eggs per year, I think. Times 100 million years = 1 quintillion eggs that might be fossilized.

Times 1 in a trillion gives 1 million fossilized eggs.

Of which only a small fraction are found.

So your problem with the odds are ... what exactly? That you're not used to thinking about rare events across geologic time?

If a body, then why not an egg?

Did you see those bodies? Did they look deformed or not? Compressed, leathery?

Would you say you can deform an egg without destroying it?

Humans aren't covered in a hard external shell which has evolved to resist simple crushing.

Why must all or even most fossilized eggs be deformed?

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