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Comment by ksec | Hacker News Reader

>India has announced $10 billion package for semiconductor/display, which is lot of money. There will definitely companies investing, big or small.

Unless India only wants to attract low end, mature node Foundry capacity. $10B is absolutely peanuts for anything that is mainstream or leading edge. Especially for India when they have very little infrastructure and Foundry Ecosystem.

And this is something I notice with India. They dont seems to have a long term strategic plan with anything. It would be much better if it was $50B over 10 years.

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> Unless India only wants to attract low end, mature node Foundry capacity. $10B is absolutely peanuts for anything that is mainstream or leading edge.

I don't think this is a good "leapfrog" opportunity. Start with a larger node, sell a bunch of commodity parts, develop some expertise (and business and physical) infrastructure. This is the path Japan and China followed.

> And this is something I notice with India. They dont seems to have a long term strategic plan with anything.

This has frustrated me for decades.

There's a ton to complain about China, but they have the long term vision chiseled on a mountain top somewhere...

Mmm…maybe. Same was said about Japan in the 1980s. Let’s look again and 25 years and see.

USSR had enormous growth in the early years (well, after adopting the NEP) all through the rural electrification period and were favorably contrasted with the 1930s depression in the west. It didn’t work out though in the long term.

Having a solid long term vision is plan, only if the solid long term plan is any good.

You trade stability for flexibility. It takes time to steer a big ship, even if your current plan has clearly extremely negative effects (e.g. killing all the sparrows resulting in a locust population boom during the Great Leap Forward). A command economy is about as big as a ship can get.

We'll see.

But one thing to keep in mind.

China has almost 13 times more people than Japan had at its peak.

China is 30 times bigger than Japan.

If China reaches Japan's level of development, its GDP will be ~56tn. For comparison, the US GDP is ~21tn.

They've been making some hard left turns lately that could very well drain the gas tank from the bottom. Or usher in a utopia, although it seems very unlikely. I guess we'll see!

I think you are misunderstanding the intent here. 10B could pay for a new fab.

India is looking to subsidize fabs, so that might be 10% off ten fabs.

Similarly, it would be foolish to go for high end fabs, assuming they want them for security and supply chain security.

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