A VPN provider's business is keeping your connection private. They have no incentive to log because the leakage of such logs would be catastrophic. Thus, a reputable VPN provider is unlikely to be a front for a nation-state actor. There is a strong financial incentive for a VPN provider to do their job, as stated, no conspiracies, and do it well.
Tor, on the other hand, has frequently had bad actors comprise a significant portion of running nodes, to the point where being the victim of a correlation attack wouldn't be unlikely for a regular user. Intelligence agencies and bad actors alike have immense incentive to saturate the Tor network with bad nodes. Finally, Tor has been plagued with issues and vulnerabilities, that they seemingly do not have the manpower or technical ability to fix: https://www.hackerfactor.com/blog/index.php?/archives/906-To...
I suspect that the future of anonymous communication will be a mixnet resistant to correlation attacks (unlike Tor.) An example - https://nymtech.net/