Most of the people I know with the worst financial outcomes overpaid to study stuff they didn’t care much about (and isn’t marketable or often even valuable) because they thought it was what they were supposed to do.
1.) I was into computers and programming in the 90s but I was too young for the dot-com boom, so by the time I could work we were in the bust. So computers weren't a 'safe' ROI.
2.) So I went into languages and wanted to be a diplomat: I studied rare languages to be more valuable (Arabic and Chinese), went to the Middle East, and planned. Except that it turns out that basically required either law school or a bunch of unpaid internships I couldn't take since this was post 2008 and everything was hell/the competition was insane, so I dropped that plan and continued library work.
3.) I recovered from losing that dream and went to grad school for Library and Information Sciences. I did a focus on assessment/metrics/KPIs + tech (so databases, HCI, and UX research) with an intent on pursing an academic librarian career and building academic tech tools on the side. My first job out of grad school was at an Ivy. I got what ended up being MS my last semester of grad school and had to quit to see to my health.
4.) I finally managed to find decent employment and get health care (MS drugs cost 300k/yr)... in 2019. Then COVID. Luckily I'm still employed, but it did throw out ALL of my career planning post MS-diagnosis.
At this point, I've just given up on planning. It's worthless. The minute you or someone you love gets sick, or you get a divorce, or a disaster hits your house (which you won't get help for), you're going to lose it all anyway. I'm just picking up as many skills as possible and hoping one basket doesn't break.
I can't find any agreement on who first said that, but it appears that several great generals have said something like that.
> Same thing might have happened to me had I been there at the time, it's hard to make the right choice in that kind of environment.
I'd say for most people (but not most people at HN because the tech community is pretty unique in terms of labor relations), occupational planning is more akin the tech career planning in 99 where there are numerous big unknowns hitting people constantly (COVID, 08, etc.). Our informational environment is TERRIBLE to build a decent ROI model. Doing so would take the average person so much time to research and build that I think right now it's better to spend the time either:
a.) Planning outside of the current systems and their incentives. For example, I'm supplementing my conventional retirement savings by handing out a LOT of free money locally. Even if the stock market crashes in my 60s and I lose everything (which, based on my lifetime, will probably happen bc it always does...), hopefully there will be at least a few people/families/organizations around that view me kindly and will help (if 2000 people give me a dollar a month, I can make rent). This is also likely to be true even if society completely collapses, provided I'm alive.
b.) Focus on building better heuristics for reacting to sudden change and pivoting. Our culture and society doesn't care about being stable and will always change to chase the latest profit/dopamine hit, so instead of making plans that require and assume stability is possible and that the past is predictive, it's better to accept the future is NOT predictable and spend one's energy on building a great skill set to be flexible. Bending instead of breaking.
That CIA signing bonus was REALLY tempting, though, I'm not going to lie.