This is very obviously wrong, but it is the conventional wisdom. Every time someone says something like this and mentions Jimmy Buffet you know they're just quoting some movie like Wolf of Wall Street.

Trading is a real job and the market is very inefficient. If you're too lazy to study it, you say things like what the GDC7 posted. It's pretty easy to predict Microsoft stock four months from now (it will probably be higher, but there's a small chance it will be lower), certainly easier than "the fate of the Universe trillions of years from now."

At the end of the day, trading is learning how to manage risk. What is Microsoft doing, how much is it likely to make, and will the macro environment support or suppress their strategy. Then you put on a trade to take advantage of this view. You may sometimes be wrong, but the idea is that over all of your decisions, you'll mostly be right and make more money than you lose.