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I'm a big fan of Tesla but I'm fairly certain that, at some point, they're going to voluntarily refund everyone the money they paid for self-driving. And, at some later point, they will probably make self-driving work but on a future generation of HW/SW.

Genuine question: if this happens, will it kill Tesla to refund all of this money? I don't pay close enough attention to their financials to know myself. I assume (and hope) not.

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Software isn’t really a problem. What hardware changes do you think Tesla will need to make to deliver on FSD, whether that ends up being actual level 5 or not?

it is also not that expensive to retrofit most new hardware, especially if it is just new silicon.

They have already done a hardware upgrade to my car from HW2.5->3, the nivida based solution to their own custom silicon. The $10,000 (now, $5000 when I bought it) includes all hardware upgrades.

I have seen nothing in Elon Musk's public persona to suggest he would ever voluntarily refund FSD beta fees. He might "voluntarily" do so under enough government pressure but he seems more likely to thumb his nose at regulators and take his chances on losing a class-action suit.

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