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Comment by dragontamer | Hacker News Reader

> And he ultimately delivers product, something most Musk-wannabes fail to do.

Where's are the solar roof? Battery swaps? And "coast-to-coast full self driving", $35,000 Model 3?

Do you think the personal assistant robot will ever be a delivered product?

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Musk has mastered the ability to make the public forget about his promises. He doesn't deliver on these promises at all. I think we're generally wising up to his game: Musk carefully SEO's his words and public image to make the internet itself forget about these claims.

Only people who actually rely upon their own personal memories (ie: the Battery Swap demo from 2013) can pull this information out. Otherwise, they're fogotten.

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In any case, this video-games while driving thing is just more of the 2016 claim of "coast to coast full self driving by 2018". He hasn't delivered upon the promise and needs to muck up the waters even more on the subject.

https://futurism.com/elon-musk-teslas-autonomous-car-will-dr...

> [Elon] said that the coast-to-coast test is still on track to take place at the end of the year, and that all Tesla cars built since October 2016 would be updated. The plan, announced in a Ted Talk last month, is to “go all the way from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York with no controls touched in the entire journey.”

View on HN

Ah, don't get me wrong, I don't have a very high opinion of Elon. I think Tesla is over-valued as a simple car company and selling it as a tech company is borderline charlatan. And yes, he fails at a lot of, let's call them non-core, products. And usually misses timelines for core products. Anyone else trying this would be nailed to the wall, Elon pulls it off. That alone is quite a skill. With the effect that Tesla now is a viable car manufacturer, regardless of market cap.

Personally, I hate that approach to business. I don't even talk about the Solar City bail-out, his Tesla goes private tweet and all that. For some reason that really avoids me, it works...

> Anyone else trying this would be nailed to the wall, Elon pulls it off. That alone is quite a skill.

PT Barnum, Elon Musk, Edison.

More people pull it off than you'd think. Its an age old strategy of simply never admitting mistakes and hoping the American population ignores the mistakes.

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Its what we like to call a "conman", you know... people who are really good at "confidence games" (what "conman" stands for in short). You hit people with a lot of confidence, and people then give you money.

It works on small scales, it works on large scales. This isn't an attribute you should be praising. This is just how humans work, and people who abuse other humans with this tactic are immoral.

Calling him a conman given what he has achieved with electric cars and rockets is absurd. That's coming from a place of envy or resentment.

Musk over-promises, and often, but what he delivers is impressive even if it doesn't meet his promises. Therefore he's no conman.

The more interesting question is whether the over-promising is necessary if you want to achieve something substantial. Politicians certainly seem to think so.

Well, he can be both. With his conman stunts he is buying time for hos companies to finally achieve something. Sad part is, since something is done, he could just work with realistic timelines. He doesn't, and this results in Tesla et al having an unfair advantage over competitors who are measured against Elon's BS promises.

Politicians are probably the worst group to measure against when it comes to honesty and decency.

I've seen every David Mamet movie and Musk is no conman by any fair definition.

Politics works like this:

1. Politician "shares a vision"

2. People buy into that vision by voting politician into office

3. Politician never achieves vision but makes progress towards it or fails to

The vision can be something like "everyone should be able to go to college," "a good job for every American," "no more homelessness," "healthcare for every American" and so on. Is this lying? In some sense, yes, but I would say we should judge politicans by how they change the world (for better or for worse) rather than whether they actually achieve their vision.

Is it possible to make progress towards some goal without an unrealistic ideal providing inspiration?

This strategy is called "The old Razzle Dazzle": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW3MIixEps4

Its well known to work. We all know it works, and there are a myriad of examples throughout US history (and maybe even in other countries).

Just because it works doesn't mean its moral.

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Leverage your popularity, start fights in the public, get the common people low-key interested (but not interested enough to actually look at the facts, just interested enough to follow the fun stuff) and give them a show. Suddenly you get a ton of supporters.

Politicians, Lawyers, and yes, CEOs / Businessmen commonly do this. Call it whatever you want, its not something I think we should b glorifying as a society.

Whether this process is justifiable or moral is an interesting question. A second question is whether there's any alternative (I doubt it). One thing's for sure: the border between "vision" and "lie" is hard to figure out.

The line is crossed when you start demeaning honest people to get your idea out there. A line that Elon has crossed many years ago.

Pedo-Scuba Diver, COVID19 denial to keep the Fremont factory open, $39,990 Cybertruck, SEC flaunting / breaking of rules, etc. etc.

Calling him a conman is entirely accurate. He just happens to be a successful conman, so he still has his supporters.

Over selling being necessary is a drag, & it exists in internal politics too. It's priced in, so giving someone a realistic schedule/budget causes two problems: they lower your expected range by thinking your realistic numbers are optimistic, & it breaks the lull that some project is going to save having to put in hard work still

A large portion of the users here are jealous of what he has achieved, and it's very obvious by the pile-on negativity any time an article with Musk in the text comes up.

You would have to be delusion to call him a con-man in 2021, but yet it is still happening. Oh well, as Taylor Swift famously wrote "haters gonna hate"

I think I have met someone jealous like you mentioned . Within 2 hours of meeting them, Somehow the new austin gigafactory was brought up and they started to attack Musk to paint him as a failure. Just citing random tidbits and facts.

I didn’t really argue since I am not that invested nor do i think Musks needs me to defend his reputation lol.

Im not really on twitter or social media anymore except for occasional HN, so this took me by surprise but I guess this is more common than I thought.

I wouldn't limit it on America, so. I'm not praising it, all things considered this behavior causes much more damage that it does, maybe, good. but even when it comes to conmen, there are bad ones, mediocre ones, good ones and really good ones. Musk absolutely is part of the latter group...

Solar roof was on a brewery in New England I recently patroned. You can buy it if you want to pay and wait for it.

Battery swaps were to fully capture California ZEV credits until Tesla could grow large enough to not rely on them. The market for Teslas has flourished without them, relying only on Fast DC chargers for consumer range anxiety.

Personal assistant robot is a cheap marketing effort to drive recruiting of talent.

Laugh and point fingers. The methods work, regardless of the feelings about them.

> Laugh and point fingers. The methods work, regardless of the feelings about them.

No. "Battery Swap" was a lie that was never delivered and frankly just stole money from California.

We all know that __lying__ works. The last few years have made it abundantly clear that the general population is far more accepting of these lies than I'm comfortable for.

So I'm going to keep pointing them out.

I will accept some lies for desperately needed progress. And, as you mention, lying works. Where would we be without Tesla succeeding? Definitely not where we are today. Legacy automakers are still making half hearted efforts at electrifying transportation while Tesla increases production 100% YoY. Legacy auto would’ve made no effort without Tesla coming at them hard, versus the little bit of effort they show today.

Are you willing to sacrifice morally or ethically if the change needed to mitigate climate change is going to require some less than total honesty? Consider we, again, as you mention, live in a post truth world. One must adapt to the operating environment to increases chances of success.

> Where would we be without Tesla succeeding?

Hydrogen Fuel Cells and probably more widespread PHEVs.

Which would have been a superior future than where we are today.

10-million cars with 200lbs of Li-ion batteries each would save more energy from our transportation network than 2-million cars with 1000lbs of Li-ion batteries each.

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At this point. Elon is incredibly anti-progress. He's switched into fighting against alternatives and is diminishing progress on legitimate strategies (both H2 and PHEVs) because he wants to hold onto his market advantage.

Fuel Cells are the scam. The cheapest way to make hydrogen fuel is through fracking. It's dirty under the top-level.

So it's "no emissions" but still relies on the planet-killing petroleum fuel chain.

If you think PHEVs are somehow constrained by EVs - you have no idea of the patent forests Toyota and others have built on hybrid tech. It's not the lithium that's stopping PHEVs.

And the cheapest source of electricity is coal. So its not like your EV-powered vehicle (largely using coal to power itself) is much better.

In any case, widespread electrolysis of Hydrogen is well researched and well on its way to being achieved: https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-el...

There was a good article or two on some systems developed that were direct from solar-power into hydrogen, skipping the inefficient electricity steps.

Even if "steam reformation" (greenwashed name for hydrogen from fossil fuels) is no longer used, electrolysis of water still requires transporting water to a hydrogen plant, purifying it, electrolyzing it, and then compressing or liquefying the hydrogen for transport, and transporting the hydrogen to stations around the world.

I could see this being used for airplanes because there aren't very many airports (it's far better than avgas which contains lead, and it's probably better than jet fuel?). But there is basically nowhere outside the far far north where this could be anywhere close to being as good as electricity for cars. Even in Norway today, electric is far more popular than hydorgen.

Coal isn't the cheapest power anymore. Your information is out of date [1]. Electrolysis or solar hydrogen production still isn't even here, much less cheaper than fracking.

[1] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/renewables-cheapest-e...

Forward looking statements are no different than a $39,900 Cybertruck.

They're correct as far as my discussion point is concerned. A possibility of the future, the benefits of being forward looking.

It may not exist, but the point of the statement is to be parity with Elon Musk's discussion style. Not to be on parity with the actual truth. That's the problem: Mr. Musk imagines the future and his discussions are apparently fine. But snap back to reality and suddenly everyone else (who is working on realistic numbers) is wrong.

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Electrolysis could exist, and it could be cheap. Much like how a $39000 Cybertruck could exist in enough numbers to warrant customers putting down reservation money on it.

Its the name of the game and you know it if you've followed how this discussion evolves. Yes, I feel icky using that kind of logic but its necessary in this age.

Hydrogen Fuel Cells and probably more widespread PHEVs.

I am unconvinced by the case for hydrogen fuel cells or PHEVs.

10-million cars with 200lbs of Li-ion batteries each would save more energy from our transportation network than 2-million cars with 1000lbs of Li-ion batteries each.

The correct answer is the reduction of cars. Taking 10 million cars off the road and switching to public transit and higher density suburban and urban planning would save more energy in the long run.

At this point. Elon is incredibly anti-progress.

The best car is no car.

Mr. Musk was pretty integral in his role of killing the California High Speed Rail project.

He created a fake solution, the Hyperloop, to steal hype away, and then never built the Hyperloop. Thereby killing the mass-transit solution of California.

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I stand by my assertion. Mr. Musk is no longer useful for the environmental cause. He is decidedly anti-progress at this point. A few years ago it was somewhat ambiguous, but now its clear.

> Mr. Musk was pretty integral in his role of killing the California High Speed Rail project.

It’s not even approximately dead, so Musk having been integral in killing it doesn't seem to be either true or meaningful.

As for creating the false impression it was killed, that was mostly Newsome’s announcement shortly after taking office that described no substantive changes (it literally boiled down to “we’re going to keep building the parts we have funding to build, keep doing planning/EIRs/etc. on the rest, and not do construction on parts not currently funded until construction funding is secured”) but was widely misinterpreted, not Musk, that was responsible for that.

Nonsense. California High Speed Rail practically killed itself.

> California High Speed Rail practically killed itself.

Except it's still actively being built.

Right. Madera to Bakersfield by 2035. This project is a joke and everyone knows it - choosing the route for political reasons, appointing politically connected sham contractors like Tutor Perini, declining the SNCF proposal to run this along I-5 instead, etc.

Texas will likely get its high-speed rail well before we do.

> Madera to Bakersfield by 2035.

The current target, per the most recent business plan, is Merced to Bakersfield by the end of the decade, Silicon Valley to Central Valley (SF to Bakersfield) by 2031, and the Phase 1 system (SF to LA) by 2033. There is also work with Brightline West (the private developer of a Victorville to Las Vegas line) to jointly extend that line so that it interconnects with the Phase 1 system in Southern California, forming a combined SF-LA-LV system.

> Texas will likely get its high-speed rail well before we do.

Well, I mean, its a shorter and easier line with an earlier current planned operation date, with fewer bookend and station projects, so that wouldn’t be surprising, but they keep pushing out the construction start date while California keeps building, so I wouldn’t bet on it.

I hope you're right and I wish the project the best. I'm no where near California, but I think rail (and high-speed rail in particular) is one of the most efficient means of transportation devised, and should be deployed and supported.

In any case, Mr. Musk has not been helpful to the cause at all.

> > Except it's still actively being built.

> I hope you're right

If I’m not, the California High Speed Rail Authority is doing some next-level gaslighting.

https://buildhsr.com/

There are more PHEVs than there has ever been. I know because I’m researching them to buy one.

I can’t imagine how the success of Tesla has possibly not had the effect of speeding up legacy manufacturers to create PHEVs.

Tesla led the way to get all this electrical car infrastructure out in the world that everybody else can take advantage of.

Talk to any Tesla-fan.

"Icky ICE Engine". "Now you have two engines with twice the malfunctions". "I don't like oil changes". Etc. etc. They're incredibly anti-PHEV.

Neither Elon nor his gang of supporters are very good for PHEVs. And on stage, Elon still derides them as a strategy.

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Look: Elon / Tesla are right now arguing __against__ government incentives for PHEVs and EVs.

His politics have flipped. He's no longer a supporter of incentives for this industry.

I am both a Tesla fan and a Tesla driver.

I am against PHEVs. When my parents recently went shopping for a new car, I tried to sell BEV. When I failed, I encouraged them to skip PHEV and just buy ICE.

PHEV are 2x the complexity and things to worry about and go wrong. You need to stop for gas AND plug in your car every day? You need to change your oil AND potentially replace your battery?

IMO PHEV exist because they are a compliance tool to meet green energy standards, but not generally a solid product. I see them vanishing very soon as BEV production capacity increases, and they will be a tiny footnote in the history of the automobile. In fact a salesmen directly told us that the PEV we were looking at (PEV XC90 I think?) was a joke, and we could just throw the plug in the trash when we got home and ignore that it existed.

Is a PHEV any more complicated than a regular hybrid car? You still have gas and electric motors, just a bigger battery pack in the PHEV. The Prius has proven that even with a gas motor, they can be super reliable. These cars are beaten and abused by taxi fleets and Uber drivers for over 20 years now, and they still hit over 300,000 miles reliably. The electric motor takes so much work off of the gas motor, the gas motor is still usually in really good condition after that many miles.

And if you buy the right PHEV, like as in, you buy the one that fits your commute, you probably don't have to gas up much at all. I know people with PHEVs and they love them. They rarely ever put gas in them, except for long trips. All their commuting is done on electric power. They work great. I don't really get what you are on about.

Maybe you are biased as a Tesla fan and Tesla driver. I mean, I'm not even sure why else you would have mentioned that. Maybe as a disclaimer that we will know your post is biased? The fact that you're a fan has nothing to do with the reliability or quality of a PHEV, and is totally irrelevant otherwise.

In fact, PHEVs are arguably simpler, because the engine is tuned to the generator (which has a consistent RPM / Torque curve).

Having an engine run at one singular RPM / Torque band is much easier than ICE, which commonly needs to deliver power from ~1500 RPM to 6000 RPM.

I mean, the whole two engines thing is true though right? If someone else can get the cost of H2 fuel cells down to a marketable level I'm sure Tesla would be very happy to fit them as optional range extenders to its next line up.

In the UK at least, most PHEVs sold are cynically avoiding a bunch of taxes and benefit in kind. Many of them are never plugged into a charger.

> If someone else can get the cost of H2 fuel cells down to a marketable level I'm sure Tesla would be very happy to fit them as optional range extenders to its next line up.

Hyundai Xcient for one is launching imminently.

China / Zhangjiakou is launching 600+ busses on Hydrogen for the 2022 Winter Games.

Toyota Mirai existed for __years__.

Yutong and BYD sell ~20k electric busses per year.

It was demonstrated, it’s just longer ranges plus fast charging made it irrelevant. The logistics issues of not owning a battery are also significant, you would either need to bake in a battery replacement charge to the service which is fine if replacing batteries where a regular thing, but batteries can last the lifetime of the vehicle.

And frankly the rest of the industry agrees battery swaps sound great but it was abandoned as unnecessary.

> "Battery Swap" was a lie that was never delivered

Sorry, but this can be disproved with a single Google search. They did have a battery swap station (between SF and LA), but there was minimal interest from customers.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-shuts-down-battery-swap-prog...

https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-batter...

> A Tesla spokesperson said the Harris Ranch facility is functional, but that battery swaps are only being done on a limited fleet of Tesla cars.

> “We are currently running the pilot with a small number of Model S,” said Tesla’s Khobi Brooklyn. “It’s open to a small number of Model S owners.”

> What is the point of a Tesla battery swap program that isn’t actually swapping batteries for Tesla owners?

> It could have something to do with California’s Air Resources Board and its complicated system of zero-emission vehicle credits.

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They opened a singular facility that operated at a loss for a few months, and then shut it down. With no intent on ever mass-producing this technology or dropping the costs down to be a long term sustainable solution.

They accomplished just enough to take the California tax credit, and then never spoke of it again.

Yeah, they invited a few people at first, then opened it to every Tesla owner in California, and basically nobody was interested. Supercharging was fast enough for most people, and it didn't make sense to scale out something that almost nobody was interested in.

Another notable change at that time was adding the underbody plate[1] for increased fire safety, which made the swap take longer than it otherwise would. These were offered free of charge to customers and there was very high uptake.

[1] https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-adds-titanium-underbody-shi...

> then opened it to every Tesla owner in California

Nope. Never happened. 200 invitations to one location, and those invited needed to schedule an appointment to use them. Then the project was killed off.

Appointment-only service isn't what "battery swap" was about. It was supposed to be a service that was more convenient than gas stations or superchargers.

But we all know that swapping $15,000 batteries, roughly 1000lbs or more (aka: the weight of an engine lift) in 10 minutes was never really a viable business model.

> Another notable change at that time was adding the underbody plate[1] for increased fire safety

Oh thanks for reminding me of that. The plate that no longer exists on modern models, yet another broken promise of Mr. Musk.

https://www.reddit.com/r/IdiotsInCars/comments/ppqqwg/15yr_o...

You know, make a blogpost about how awesome Titanium is as a metal / shield, but SEO it away by a few years to make "Tesla Shield" in Google point you to floor mats. You know, to make the public forget about the entire "Shield" episode entirely and the whole controversy about exploding bottoms of Tesla cars.

What was the requirement that was satisfied by the battery swap?

California wrote an idiotic tax credit that gave +tax credits to vehicles that demonstrated a capacity to charge in under X minutes. Elon Musk shows off a battery swap demo on stage to "prove" it, and then grabbed the tax credit.

Then he threw away the battery swap demo and never talked about it again.

Its a combination of idiotic governance + a conman / liar at work. The government tax credit is a decent idea to spur innovation, but only if the government actually rewards money correctly. If it gives out money too freely, then the companies will just eat the government's face... they'll take the money but never actually develop the technology.

That's about 1/3 of the story of the battery swap experiment. Tesla put engineering behind making the battery easily removable in all Model S cars, but actual customers (like me) didn't want to use battery swaps. I'd rather supercharge.

p.s. can you stop name-calling?

Not true, they did have a real battery swap station just off i-5 (between SF and LA) near Kettleman City. I don't think many people used it, however.

That was only open to select members and required a reservation. It never was a viable model, or even open to public service.

And we all know that swapping $15,000 batteries out for free ain't a valid business model and never will be a valid business model. It was a project designed to maximize the California incentives and minimize the costs to Tesla for obtaining that money.

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I hope that the citizens of California learned their lesson. But even if they refuse to learn, I've learned very much from that episode.

The current base price of $39,490 is is 34,997$ in 2017 dollars when it was introduced. So not only where they selling at 35k for a while, in real terms they still are.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#overview

I'm seeing $44990 as the base price right now.

There's no $35k Model 3, not in 2021 dollars, not in 2017 dollars. Not in inflation-adjusted dollars. Not available at all in any capacity.

Website only lists a subset of prices and they go back and forth on this over time.

It wasn’t until February 2019 that the $35,000 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range became available. Less than two months later, Tesla announced that the Standard Range model would no longer be available for order on its website, though buyers could still order it “off-menu,” either in a Tesla store or over the phone.

https://www.carfax.com/blog/cheapest-tesla

Which is kind of messed up IMO, but that’s different from saying it’s never sold.

It was always 35k with incentives.

I double checked on this.

https://www.valuewalk.com/2016/02/tesla-model-3-price-consum...

No it wasn't. People thought theyd get $27500 cars after the incentive.

The website quotes $4300 in "gasoline savings". A number that's suspiciously higher than I remember before. I wonder if Tesla has been changing the calculation on their "gas savings" to match marketing needs.

In any case, "gasoline savings" is not an incentive.

That or gasoline is currently expensive, it’s up 60% over the last 18 months though closer to 50% from 5 years ago. https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts

I find including the gas savings number a poor choice even if you see the real price well before buying the car. It simply varies to much both over time and based on driving habits for any general number to be very relevant, also nobody shows the impacts of say insurance costs on different car models.

Ok. That's pretty shady.

“In real terms” $39,490 today is $39,490 today.

Only today, that isn’t a statement they will still sell you a Model 3 for that nominal price in 4 or 40 years. Rather it’s a statement they will sell you for that price right now.

He said they would sell at 35k and they did, briefly.

Sure, I agree with that, but you said:

> So not only where they selling at 35k for a while, in real terms they still are.

And I’m just saying no, because if they want to say they are still selling a $35k car, it needs to be priced $35k today. Sure, they started with a $35k car, but it is no longer the case. I haven’t suddenly increased my car budget from $35k to $40k in the last 4 years, regardless of inflation, because inflation != income growth. I still want a $35k car, and the fact they said for so long they would have one, and then upped the price, is annoying because I would spend $35k on a car but not $40k, regardless today or 2017.

if they want to say

They aren’t advertising a 35k car today, but this feels like beating a dead horse so I will drop it.

inflation != income growth.

That’s a fair point, but it really means you have taken a pay cut over the last few years. Without inflation that same pay cut would have meant you couldn’t afford a 35k car, so blame whoever you’re working for not Tesla.

Though if it’s something other than a shitty employer then I apologize for the tone. My personal finances have also taken a hit.

Oh you’re totally correct here, that is definitely a pay cut against inflation - fortunately not the case for me, just expressing this opinion, thanks for your kindness there.

I am indeed beating the dead horse here, but I guess what I’m trying to say is, I really wish there was an even cheaper model, because $35k/$40k seems to be right at that point of pushing the budget of a budget car into luxury territory, and not truly giving consumers what they want, a base model. Sorry if I’m not being clear, a bit hard to explain.

But that’s not Tesla’s problem, just an issue of the economics of the industry at this point. Hoping we see that significant drop in cost as battery tech evolves.

Where are the electric cars from all the traditional manufacturers? Lucid and Rivian are starting to roll out production vehicles after years of failing to deliver more than vapour and promises.

Solar roof has been deployed and you can read any number of stories about failed certification (certain utilities are not interested in certifying connection of rooftop solar).

Battery swap was only ever a compliance technology which Tesla abandoned as soon as the regulatory requirements were removed.

Don’t bother man. No matter what you say people will come up with excuse after excuse after excuse.

“I love the car but…”

Each discussion I have, my arguments grow stronger. I see what works and doesn't work, and prepare for the same discussion to happen say... 2 or 3 months from now. Everyone else forgets about the discussion, and I hold onto my strengthened arguments to hit them again.

It takes a few years, but over the long term, my arguments evolve into a stronger form, and people start to listen.

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I've learned that while the Internet's memory is long, people's individual memories are short. You have plenty of opportunities to improve your arguments over time.

Its no different from what Elon is doing here: leveraging the shortness of the typical person's memory to make his marketing tricks work.

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