Eventually, that's bound to catch up, but I suspect it's going to hurt a lot more than just those with crypto assets and hurt a lot of those without crypto assets, no?
Eventually, that's bound to catch up, but I suspect it's going to hurt a lot more than just those with crypto assets and hurt a lot of those without crypto assets, no?
The problem is when the music stops and there's a run on crypto. People are trying to get out of $USDT and convert it into cash. Exchanges have to have buyers of $USDT so they can exchange $USDT back into cash for anyone that wants to. But they can't just create dollars out of thin air. If there's no buyers for $USDT anymore than the "currency" flatlines, it's no longer tied to the dollar.
If Tether were truly backed 1:1, Tether itself could just buy $USDT with its own cash on any exchange, and that would be enough to keep their currency afloat and stop the run.
There seems to be almost no scenario where USDT becomes more valuable than the USD, and the worst case is it continues to be worth the same.
But there is a fair probability it becomes worthless, meaning that you gain from it.
While you need to pay premiums in the interim, for something with an indefinite timeframe, that risk seems fairly minor for the potential reward.
>While you need to pay premiums in the interim, for something with an indefinite timeframe, that risk seems fairly minor for the potential reward.
1. the chance of collapse might be lower than you think. the "tether is going to collapse any day now" sentiment has been around for years now, but collapse has proved elusive.
2. borrowing costs are high. I searched around and it looks like the APY for lending out tether is around 9%. The cost for borrowing tether is certainly higher. If you held a $100 short position for 5 years, and there was a total collapse at the end of year 5, then you'd make $65 (factoring in interest payments). That sounds good, but chances are thether probably has more money in the bank than $0. If it only collapsed to $60 (ie. they went bankrupt but had 60 cents of real money for every dollar issued), then you'd only make $5.
3. there are rumors/conspiracy theories that tether/bitfinex/tether affiliated exchanges force USDT/USD rates up periodically to force liquidation of tether short sellers. If you're caught in one, you'd lose money and be forced to rebuy tethers at an unfavorable price.
[0] https://compound.finance/markets/USDT
[1] https://app.aave.com/#/reserve-overview/0xdac17f958d2ee523a2...
Remember Folks: Don't short Tether, once the exchange leaks your position to their buddies, Bitfinex shareholders will organize to liquidate you by working with their wash trading bots.
You have a database entry showing that you have a large amount of winnings that you can see on your screen.
You are going to have to deal with corrupt human beings on other end, who are outside of your jurisdiction, and are assuming they are just going to wire your bank account money based on that database entry, when you have no leverage over them at all, and when they will be better able to see the writing on the wall than you do.
Even within your jurisdiction, for something like Coinbase, if it becomes completely insolvent then you become an unsecured creditor in the bankruptcy liquidation process.
You'll be stuck yelling into the ether making twitter posts shaming them for not wiring you your winnings. And whatever actual cash you sent them to make those bets will be long gone and you'll lose everything.
Even assuming you could find some form of betting market outside of the crypto exchanges to place bets with other people that Tether would collapse the interest you have to pay should more than offset the eventual winnings. This is similar to how using options for portfolio insurance is a poor idea because by the time you're worried about your portfolio losing value everyone else can see the issue as well and wants a premium to write you that insurance.
And there's no sure bet that Tether/crypto collapses in the near term. I suspect that crypto will likely pop to a new bubble blow-off peak in 2022 and then 2022/2023 there will be another systemic test of crypto that could lead to its failure. But there's many billionaires with a vested interest in seeing the game continue who will do whatever they can to kick the can further down the road. I thought that it would fail in 2018 and was wrong (but the transcripts with bitfinex showed that it was probably on the brink). You could wind up betting Tether collapses for so long that by the time it finally does you've spent more on those bets than you've won back.
Tether has been manipulating the market since 2018 through using wash sales to prop up the price through apparent demand.
Tether has most of its liabilities backed with unsecured commercial paper from China.
China has had issues with their real estate companies being in too much debt and offering too much commercial paper to keep them running day to day.
China also has moved against crypto currencies recently, and regulating the real estate companies to move forward to pay back their debt.
So this strikes me as systemic risk. If USDT goes, so does the Chinese Commercial Paper Market, and vice versa. Who knows what gets taken out at that point. Tesla? Coinbase? Nvidia and AMD for losing sales to mining rigs? I don't know.
They are profiting from all of the tether FUD nonsense by being able to lend their coins at a higher rate.
Some might say that FDIC made the banks super rich -- it wasn't the services that made the banks profitable, as it was the bank had a sudden and large influx of government backed cash to make loans from.
In the US, it's not just reserves it's that 95% of account holders will be FDIC insured. And because the accounts are insured, there's rigorous banking regulations around the bank so FDIC doesn't have to pay out constantly.
So at what point does a run on $USDT happen? When the Chinese commercial paper market goes belly up? When they bitfinex files for bankruptcy or is charged with RICO? Sure there's a lot of FUD but if you read the tea leaves, I think China already sees systemic risk.
edit: ok the other "principle" might be that all (most?) cryptocurrencies are independent from government, they are owned and managed by individuals, companies and groups of people/devices (if you're lucky).
Who thinks Tether is sustainable?
Tether is just someone with digital Monopoly (game) money basically.
There isn't really such a think.
There are many crypto currencies with different goals and approaches to handling market dynamics. And there are some where doing such a think is fully against there principles and would brake their marked dynamics. But not necessary for other reasons. But this also means you need to look at the specific crypto system in question to decide why it might or might not work.
I don't know much about Tether specifically, but lets say you have a new arbitrary crypto currency you try to make price stable, but like many crypto currencies it end up having deflationary tendencies (more demand, money getting "locked" in, etc.). In which case minting new coins would not only be sustainable but likely necessary.
or maybe the crypto community isn't a monolith, and all the cryptoanarchists aren't the people who hold/support tether?
They appear to all be playing by the rules Tether is setting.
What makes you sure that at least some of the "tether is a scam (or is at least shady)" people aren't also crypto "participants"?
>They appear to all be playing by the rules Tether is setting.
Or maybe they're voting with their feet and moving to an exchange that doesn't deal in USDT, and so won't be subject to tether's rules?
I imagine there are many people that believe in crypto and participate in the markets, but dislike that Tether is behaving like the fiat central bankers they abhor so much.
> Or maybe they're voting with their feet and moving to an exchange that doesn't deal in USDT, and so won't be subject to tether's rules?
Unbacked Tether inflates the price of any coin that it's used to purchase, so what you're describing would have no effect. When Tether's $1bn pump pushes up BTC's price from it's 20% overnight decline, are the theoretical USDT-free exchanges going to reflect bid/ask prices as they were pre-pump? Of course not.
Satoshi intended certain principles with the creation of bitcoin, but these are not the predominant driver of its use in actuality.
that's not what most people mean by principled. Also, in that sense, crypto also has principles in that most altcoins are built on ethereum, which also has algorithmic constraints.
Ethereum's algorithmic constraints are merely algorithmic constraints that can be changed easily, whereas bitcoin's key algorithmic constraints also are actually principles; changing them results in a non-bitcoin fork.
Tether: hold my beer
At what point did people claim that "price manipulation of [bitcoin]" was "impossible"? I think you're mistaking "price manipulation" with "dilution" (eg. quantitative easing or debasing).
For the most part the crypto market being unregulated means that there can't be any consequences, except for market consequences. And market consequences are vaaaaastly worse. It's basically like having no one make you wear a seat belt. Sure seems fine until you're just dead.
Marking arbitrary large numbers in digital ledgers, blockchain or otherwise, does not cause prosperity. When everyone has infinite money, no one has any money at all, they just have their things.
“If you would allow me to continue..."
Ford nodded dejectedly.
“Thank you. Since we decided a few weeks ago to adopt the leaf as legal tender, we have, of course, all become immensely rich.”
-Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/685739-if-the-management-co...
What do you think would happen if you gave 1000 dollars to each person in America every month? I think a lot of good would come from that and not much bad.
As already seen with covid aid, people wouldn't work in low wage jobs any more. This would lead to inflation or disappearance of some amenities. E.g. you might have to put your groceries into your bag yourself, or might have to pay a dollar extra for that service. This isn't something negative though, just a neutral change I guess.
It would help a lot of poor and suffering people, but note that even in countries with good unemployment benefits, homeless people still exist.
What do you mean by “strict” and why is this inaginee5 to be necessary? Note that UBI is usually envisioned with a defined population but the absence of means or behavior testing within that population, either “citizens” or “citizens and LPRs” or “citizens and aliens with work authorization” or “citizens and aliens with satisfactory immigration status in a specific set of visa categories based on basis and duration” would all be valid populations, with wildly different impacts on the viability of UBI with any given immigration policy.
> I'm in favour of UBI, but note that it'd require extremely strict immigration policy as well as good enforcement of it,
COVID aid isn't like UBI, critically, key parts of it (enhanced unemployment) are conditioned on absence of work or reduction of it below pre-benefits levels, and thus forces people to choose between benefits and work. This is the kind of incentive with means tested benefits that UBI is intended to fix.
Plus I'd say it would be even more unfair for the undocumented immigrants than it is now because they would not get any UBI. But if you gave UBI to the undocumented, way more people would attempt to become undocumented immigrants, by overstaying their visas, etc. Which then probably will lead to you having to issue less short term visas, or actually deporting undocumented immigrants.
It also didn't create new money insofar as it was used to pay existing debts like rent; what it did was avoid a financial crisis.
Other kind of aid designs don't do this very much; demand is infinite and won't go away if you give people some money.
Now if it came out of thin air, right from the printing presses, a whole lotta hurt of inflation
This is not correct. If you try minting coins, you can be shut down. You can buy and sell using whatever you want, yes. There aren't laws against using alternative currencies. But there very much are laws against creating them.
Grandparent comment is referring to the position that taxes are extracted via threat of force. This is an extremely emotionally fraught position, and it's difficult to discuss rationally.
So, the reasoning goes, if you have to tax to print money, it is done by resort to force or threat thereof.
Even if (printing and then) giving everybody $40K/yr caused, say, 40% inflation, anybody making under $100K/year would be better off. You actually wouldn’t need any taxes if the government just printed all money it needed, hopefully most of which is in the form of direct checks to all residents/citizens.
no, it's not a wealth tax. it's a cash tax. if you printed money and caused 100% inflation, that'll just cause every scarce asset (eg. houses, stocks, gold) to double in price. Since the rich hold most of their wealth in assets, not cash, I doubt it will be fair or progressive.
This used to be true before we had computers and free fractional share purchases of course.
Houses aren't really either, it's the land that is. Thanks Henry George.
That doesn't make any sense. Stocks ultimately represent ownership in an enterprise that consists of people, equipment, and intellectual property. Those are scarce. Just because the ownership units is infinitely divisible, doesn't mean they aren't scarce. If people only bought stocks so they could hang a fancy certificate on their wall, you'd be right. But people don't do that, they buy stocks to get dibs on a certain fraction of future production. That's the scarce part.
>Houses aren't really either, it's the land that is. Thanks Henry George.
1. seems like a nitpick? When people talk buying "houses", they generally talk about buying the combo of house + land it sits on.
2. houses are still scarce[1]. we can't will infinite houses into existence. they're more plentiful than original picasso paintings, but that doesn't make them not scarce (at least according to the economic definition).
> If people only bought stocks so they could hang a fancy certificate on their wall, you'd be right.
This is highly underrated as a reason. What's the fundamental improvement in Gamestop and Tesla causing their stock price to go up this year?
See
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-10-25/elon-m...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meme_stock
> 1. seems like a nitpick? When people talk buying "houses", they generally talk about buying the combo of house + land it sits on.
Many people don't seem to understand how to separate them, leading to beliefs like "luxury apartments cost more because they have granite countertops" and "gentrification can be prevented by not building new buildings". You can't build houses forever, but you sure can build many more of them than the US does right now.
If you're doing this in an above-board way, it's still scarce, because the whole reason why companies even issue new shares is to raise capital. When you're doing that, you're trading one scarce resource (capital) for shares, which means that the shares are also scarce. You can make an infinite amount of TVs given infinite raw materials, but TVs are still scarce.
>This is highly underrated as a reason. What's the fundamental improvement in Gamestop and Tesla causing their stock price to go up this year?
Any evidence that people bought exactly one share TSLA/GME just so they could hang on their wall and/or feel smug about it? In both cases it's far more likely they bought into it because of expectation of future profits (from greater fools or actual operating profits).
>Many people don't seem to understand how to separate them, leading to beliefs like "luxury apartments cost more because they have granite countertops" and "gentrification can be prevented by not building new buildings". You can't build houses forever, but you sure can build many more of them than the US does right now.
While there might certainly be people who think the housing crisis is caused by "developers only building luxury condos" or whatever, I doubt this is a popular view on HN. Any time a housing-related thread shows up on HN, that explanation almost never shows up, and the NIMBY/zoning explanation almost always does. I'm sure a decade+ member like yourself can see this. Therefore I don't really see much point in arguing this distinction, because you'd be preaching to the choir.
If the economy is running at capacity and you wanted a UBI taxes would have to increase to prevent inflation. This would end up being wealth redistribution.
All fiscal policy is monetary policy; government spending its own fiat is money creation.
UBI is expansionary monetary policy. (Of course, it can be offset with money destruction, e.g., taxation.)
In this case, what fool would make bread when they can get $1000 by sitting around and smoking weed?
Here something that'd happen - the homeless in encampments would get hoovered up by slumlords who put them in squalor and consume their $1k checks. Poor people would have more children because each child = $1k/mo, even if they have to wait 18 years. Abduction would be easy - the ransom pays itself over time. Fraud would be rampant. The ultra poor underclass who are undocumented would still get nothing, further exacerbating the divide.
Do we have any evidence that abduction and fraud is rampant in countries in Western Europe, known for the very generous social programs? Are they exploding with poor people having kids??? Is it dangerous to live in, idk, Sweden because someone is gonna kidnap you for your social bux? I’m genuinely asking because the notion of rampant abducting and child having hasn’t happened in countries I know of with very generous social programs.
"Poor people would have more children because each child = [$$$]"
A lot of poor people already do this for this exact reason.
"The ultra poor underclass who are undocumented would still get nothing"
Should a person be allowed to enter Japan, refuse to leave and then demand the Japanese people pay them $1k a month?
Tether and bitcoin have been very robust, bitcoin has crashed and recovered many times now. But I have to say that every single bubble has involved the statement "so far, they've been right." as the follow-up to "this time things are different".