They buried the lead somewhat
> Omicron can infect 3 to 6 times as many people as Delta, over the same time period
That's ominous if true
> Omicron can infect 3 to 6 times as many people as Delta, over the same time period
That's ominous if true
With covid we need to move beyond infection rates and just focus on deaths and really start getting ready for the long haul as its not going anywhere and we will never beat covid. Every year will see a new variant, as much the same as every flu virus before it.
And then you have long debilitating covid. If it's not gone - unlikely - then it's most likely worse.
Warning, I just follow some Twitter accounts. But some scientists who have a good track record with their comments on covid since it started are very much concerned.
>Under a scenario of 90% population immunity against previous variants, we get the following picture where Omicron could lie anywhere along the dashed line ranging from an intrinsic R0 of 3 and 83% immune escape to an intrinsic R0 of 9 and 20% immune escape.
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/02/world/africa/virus-omicro...
Similarly Omicron seems to have a higher breakthrough rate for vaccinated folks than the previous variants.
Just get vaccinated, avoid crowded poorly ventilated places, stop trying to herd 7 billion cats, and move on with your life.
A lot of them lasted for centuries. People would get it and play the lottery, maybe 3 in 10 would die, the rest develop immunity for example.
Most pandemics either end because too many people die, and you're only left with the immune survivors, like the plague. Or they end because of improvement to public health and sanitary practices. Vaccines ended smallpox, condoms and awareness reduced AIDS impact, better water sanitization ended cholera, even the plague ended with help by quarantine and lockdowns.
I'm not sure how this one will end, but they almost never "just end" magically. Either some level of herd immunity is achieved, for example by having everyone have it very quickly, and being left with only immune survivors, or the spread is contained through public measures, or immunity is achieved through vaccination, or a drug to cure it is found.
Honest question, how does this one go away on the timescale of a few years to a decade (or, worst case in what truly interests us, a generation)? Couldn't seem to find an answer on pubmed or scholar when I looked, I'm jabbed and have been mindful this whole time but my logic tells me that is not happening. We'd have to get it's R0 low enough that it disappears before mutating a variant that escapes immunity (if that is even necessary given the likelihood of impermanent immunity, at least partial). Is that possible barring a new type of vaccine that entirely prevents infection and reinfection for which we'd have to get full planetary coverage of in time?
There is no real risk that a new variant will completely evade immunity from previous infections. Nothing is 100%. Over the long run it will probably play out similar to the previous coronavirus pandemic. Fortunately this time we have vaccines and other treatments which can prevent most deaths.
The issue is this disease is killing younger people than those who typically die of the flu. There number of general hospitalizations is significantly higher, with more longer lasting after infection effects.
Nearly all my friends who have had Covid can't taste or smell. That alone should scare you. I have not had it, because I am vaccinated and wear a mask while I do my normal social activities here in South Africa.
The problem is that most of the things that governments around the world have been doing to try to combat corona are completely useless, and carry a huge cost for society. We're killing people with lockdowns and school closures and by limiting medical procedures. Suicides among children and teenagers are up. Deaths of despair are up. Cancer screenings are down. The future healthcare debt is just piling up. If our strategy is killing more people than we're saving, we should stop and re-think the strategy!
The hubris is enormous. Countries think they can eradicate sars-cov-2, and every single attempt has been an abysmal failure. Omicron has been detected in Australia. How? They have incredibly strict border controls, quarantine camps, vaccine requirements and testing requirements for travelers, and yet the virus slipped through.
OP isn't saying we should throw our hands in the air and just ignore the virus, but we also shouldn't double down on useless measures that do more harm than good, and we shouldn't succumb to wishful thinking that the virus can be magically erased if only everyone did X.
Those that arrive through other locations (eg Melbourne, Sydney) etc were quarantined through hotel quarantine, which had/has leaks.
Our infection rate from COVID is substantially lower than other countries of similar size and economy, our hospitalization and death rates are substantially lower as well.
We have achieved 80-90+% vaccination rates for the majority of the population (ie 12+) and have started rolling out the 3rd shot/booster as well as planning for vaccination of 5+ starting early next year, hopefully getting 5+ kids vaccinated early in the school term.
The people protesting and complaining are a very small but noisy minority, and their arguments are becoming less and less relevant. In the two largest states, Victoria and NSW, we are "living with" COVID, with minimal restrictions (masks in internal retail spaces, hospitals and other vulnerable population locations, requirement for double vaccination in most businesses etc).
We're not trying (anymore) to "eradicate" covid, we're adapting to it, but in a way that maximizes safety and minimizes risk.
Anecdotally, me and my family have not been sick with the cold or flu ounce since all the Covid measures started. Normally we all get sick with the cold or flu at least ounce a year if not more, but now for over 2 years not sick ounce.
So it does seem like the measures do work to contain the spread of airborne disease to some extent. Will it be enough to eradicate Covid, probably not, that I can concess.
Definitely not a few.
We were on the downslide of the third big bump of COVID deaths per worldometers, but let's face it, there's going to be a big fourth even without Omicron from the infections from far less restrained Xmas/Thanksgiving get togethers.
I hope I'm wrong...
The US is one of the worst examples of COVID response, both during Trump's era and the post-Trump/QAnon/Fox/OAN/etc spread of bullshit propaganda.
It's not Xmas/Thanksgiving that's the issue, it's the lack of following logical safety and vaccination measures, somehow tied to "freedom" without considering the "general welfare".