There was an amusing example of this yesterday with The Economist saying, `The sharp increase in inflation over the past year has blindsided many economists. Almost no one saw it coming`
The specific claims are
Higher than expected inflation
> new data showed that America’s consumer price inflation rose to 5.4% in June, well above economists’ expectations. On July 14th it was revealed that British inflation rose to 2.5% in June, which was also higher than forecast.
The specific reason high inflation was not expected was because expected long term slump, which didn't happen
> Not long ago economists tended to the view that the covid-19 pandemic would lead to a prolonged slump in the rich world. That view has not worn well
> With unexpected growth has come an unexpected spurt of inflation
"predicted 83 of the last 7 downturns" implies a false positive rate of at least 76 incorrect predictions for 7 correct ones.
Of course, if they made 83 downturn predictions but didn't correctly predict the 7 that actually occurred, thee false positive rate could also be worse than that.
> The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions—a joke from master Keynesian of decades ago Paul Samuelson.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/briandomitrovic/2018/11/22/the-...
– Tara Ploughman