I wasn’t really trying to, I was merely trying to point out an interesting lead. Whether the type of rocket used has anything to do with this is, however, a very interesting and relevant question, especially considering that the ISS depends on Soyuz launches for replacing the crew.
Soyuz-U is quite old, has few flights today and will soon be completely replaced by other Soyuz variants. It doesn’t do any manned flights anymore. I bet it would be a huge relief if Roscomos were to find out that it’s really the type of rocket (and only this type of rocket) that had something to do with the failure.
A manned Soyuz flight to the ISS is coming up soon, it would be best if Roscomos wouldn’t have to delay that one. But in order to do that they have to find the reason for the failure and fix it.
This is the worst time for a Progress mission to fail. None of the previous Progress missions failed. And now? The first one after the Shuttle retires fails. The timing would be comical if it weren’t so serious.
Consequences for the ISS could be serious. The six person crew might have to be reduced to three people.