> Knuth estimates 2% of the world has what it takes to be a programmer.

Without knowing Knuth's criteria it sounds arbitrary. Would it be Knuth caliber programer? Then 2 percent seems high. Or one could change webpage color / deploy some simple app with click of button or running couple line of script. I guess 80% of adult population might be able to do in 2030.

> but also keeping in mind that the most of the world's existing and aspiring programmers won't be interested in minimum wage long-term

Well minimum wage workers are also not interested in that for long term. However that's what people will do if it is the only thing available.