There won't be a single winner. This valuation seems to imply that there will be.
I'm not bearish on Tesla or Musk, but this doesn't make sense to me. You can't monopolize these markets.
The thing that doesn't make sense is treating (number of shares * last executed order price) as anything more than just that.
Ref: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.as...
Tesla has such a high stock price because of an army of Musk fans believing in him. The company nearly went bankrupt multiple times. The cars are garbage quality. But Musk is awesome at selling dreams.
Right, and they are not going to dump their shares. So the projected scarcity from that lack of supply is priced in.
I'm talking about price discovery, which is (as proved many times) independent of rationality.
In 2021, really? {{citation needed}}
> "In 2018, engineering consultant Sandy Munro said Tesla's Model 3 had serious production flaws."
Yeah, and listen to the incredible praise this same Sandy Munro is giving them this year. As early as January 2021, around the time the other articles were published: https://www.teslaoracle.com/2021/01/26/2021-tesla-model-3-sa...
These articles may have been published in 2021, but by the time of publication they were in large part already out of date.
Right now if someone wanted to buy Tesla, they would have to pay more than the share price in order to get investors (the owners) to sell it.
While true, it seems like Tesla has at least a decade head start and can be the "winner" for at least that long.
Ford are finally going "all in" with their electric F150 and it could finally be the "Tesla Killer".
Ford are planning on these production numbers for the Electric F-150[1]:
2022: 15,000
2023: 55,000
2024: 80,000
I don't see how making 80,000 vehicles in a year 3 years from today is going to have any impact on a company already making a million vehicles this year, and will likely surpass 2 million next year.
[1] https://www.electrive.com/2021/08/24/ford-doubles-f-150-ligh...
Then there's the Cybertruck. Despite being a big Tesla fan, my opinion is that it's not going to appeal to the majority of traditional truck buyers. I'd be happy to be proven wrong.
I agree.
Ford are building only 50,000 of them in 2021, and their "best aiming high hope" is to build 175,000/year sometime in the future. [1]
Again, I don't see how building 175,000 vehicles in some future year has meaningful impact on a company that built a million in 2021 and will push close to 2 million in 2022.
Even when the "big car companies" want to go all-in electric, they can't. It takes a decade to scale up to what Tesla is doing, even for Ford.
[1] https://cleantechnica.com/2021/08/23/exclusive-ford-mustang-...
TSLA does have a significant moat in the Supercharger network. No other system comes close to what they've built there, and while an alternate system can certainly be built, it's going to take years.
All the other companies doing it are somewhat riding on Tesla's coattails. They think Tesla will be around in the future and much bigger than it is now, I'm not sure the same can be said for any other car manufacturer to lesser or greater degrees.
On the balance sheet it doesn't look good, but if you think about the strategic impact it will have on the business once they can bring costs down and ramp up installations, I think it's more fair to call it an investment.
So it's a bit of both in this case.
They have Giga Nevada which is already the world's biggest battery plant (although technically a lot of the production is Panasonic.
They also make batteries at their China factory
They've also said they will make batteries at both Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, and they're increasing their operations in California, including making more batteries.
I think it's safe to say they are scaling up production extremely fast, and I'd be interested to hear of another company scaling faster than they are.
CATL scaled much faster than Tesla - the company was founded in 2011, and they are now the leader in battery production with >30% of production. They are still increasing production. They managed to double their battery production from 10GWh/year to >20GWh between 2016 and 2018.
CATL is on track this year to produce around 140GWh of batteries, which will mean that their highest producing factory has to produce more than 35GWh. Tesla says they can produce 500k Model3/Y battery packs per year at Giga Nevada which at a generous 75kWh/pack means they may, in theory, match the smallest possible biggest factory from CATL. In reality what this means is that Giga Nevada is not the world's biggest battery plant - it's the world's biggest battery plant from plants which publish their precise production rates, but nonetheless at best #2.
We have had better iPhones for 10+ years … and maybe the iPad, Watch and Airpods… this from the richest gizmo company.. No Apple Car… Pervasive Health product is a long way from the current watch
Now tell me again about $TSLA valuation ?!
I see the same thing happening with TSLA nowadays. Not saying AAPL back then and TSLA today are directly comparable, but a lot of the naysaying about TSLA today is again, often about some kind of Traditional Accounting Principles thingamajig.
TSLA's P/E ratio is 533. It's far beyond its segment and the irrational exuberance of the tech industry.
It's a dumb tech stock multiple except the marginal cost of another car isn't zero like it is for a salesforce instance.