Instead of cheap outsourcing, I’m seeing more of an approach where salaries are cut slightly because they no longer need to be staffed in the Bay Area, and the job then offered to anyone anywhere in the world.
99% of Indians who work on outsourced projects, don't make any where close to that money. In fact the very reason outsourcing exists is because of price arbitrage.
FANG's are an exception to this, but that only proves the rule. Bulk of the world needs software written and maintained for cheap.
Outsourcing is very different to employing remote workers. When you outsource you're essentially giving up a lot of direct control over how work is done, who is doing it, what quality processes are in place, and what the deliverables look like. Companies like to control those things, and will often pay a premium to maintain control over them. Remote work maintains that control.
Part of this is visible because many remote roles are advertised as only being open to people in the same country, or timezone, or even state. Companies want their employees to be able to talk in real time (which is actually a little annoying..)
I don't think there's much similarity between outsourcing and remote work.
I mean, this is probably true, but in enterprise software, companies are paid by their customers to control those things and enforce various compliance standards like SOC-II. The difference between a piece of workflow SaaS charging $1K/month and $25K/month is fulfilling those compliance standards, so there are clear economic incentives in play.
I fully expect the pendulum to swing the other way from favoring intra-US remote work like it is now.
Highly competent developers phoning it in from Peru, totally unlike the 1990s, very much seems like it'll be an extremely prominent trend in the future.
But seriously, even outsourcing to American companies becomes labor-intensive and frustrating. Everyone overpromises, underdelivers, and you spend as much time managing external entities as it would take to do the work yourselves. It is useful and necessary because of the shortage / intractability of senior engineering talent, but it's always better to hire that senior talent than outsource imo.