Ask HN: Is the Great Resignation in tech real? If so, why? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: Is the Great Resignation in tech real? If so, why?

325 pointsnoobhacker259 comments

According to the media and from watching my professional circle, it seems that many are indeed changing jobs with significant pay raises--the so-called Great Resignation.

I'd like to hear from HN about job changes and raises. Anecdotes are welcome, but ideally one of us works in HR and has systematic data.

But more importantly, I'd like to think through the reasons driving the Great Resignation. Below are several explanations with my own assessments.

1. People die from Covid, reducing the labor force. -> Irrelevant for tech workers

2. People get large checks from the gov and are not pressured to find job. -> Irrelevant for tech workers

3. People avoided changing jobs during the pandemic. So the high turnover now is simply making up for low turnover in 2020. -> This does explain the high turnover, but not the significant raises. Indeed, the number of workers and jobs remains the same--people are shuffling between places. To be convinced of this theory, I'd like to see that raises are flat.

3. Senior workers are retiring early due to pandemic-related revelation. Mid-level workers are thus getting more promos than usual. -> Seems plausible. To be convinced, I need to see mid-level workers getting raises, and entry-level workers NOT getting raises.

4. [My theory] Remote work allows better matching of people and jobs. Imagine that person A can deliver lots of value to company B, but is hitherto prevented to do so due to location. With remote work, Person A can now work for Company B and get paid higher accordingly. -> To be convinced, I need to see that remote job offers have higher comp vs comparable non-remote job offers. If this theory is true, then the Great Resignation/Remote Work makes the job market more efficient, creates value for society, and should be celebrated by employees and employers alike.

5. [My theory] The pandemic pushes society forward in terms of tech adoption, making tech workers even more valuable than before. -> Seems plausible, since tech has become more valuable as a whole (e.g. stock price), not just salary. If this theory is true, then it is again a good thing for both tech workers and the broader society.

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Pre-Covid much of my job satisfaction came from the sense of comradery of working on a team. Even as an introvert I enjoy interacting with coworkers, and being intune with the needs of the group and generally helping other people succeed.

When we transitioned to full remote, all of this was stripped away and I was left to focus purely on a product that on its own I was not passionate about (think ad-like product). I was met with a sudden loss in motivation, burnout, and decided to take 9 months off to pursue a tech unrelated hobby.

9 months after leaving, I have accepted a position with a 50% raise over to my previous job.

I think covid was a splash of cold water that's caused many of the people in my circle to re-evaluate how they spend their time. Tech workers are so in demand that we can freely change jobs so it follows that many people would availing that option.

I feel like im reading my own thoughts. The thing that got me into work was the people not the product. I also worked in ads.

Similar struggle. Joined the company for a group of people, who all subsequently left. Stayed on for a year of diminishing financial and psychic rewards. Now looking.

Not working in tech but this seems to make a lot of sense. If you had a socially fulfilling job pre-covid then maybe you're wage didn't matter so much because being in tech it's probably pretty good. But being stuck at home it's hard to optimize for anything else than your salary when you're considering your employment. So if you're gonna sit and stare at a screen you might as well get as much money as possible.

Another introvert here, working fully remotely since before COVID. I couldn't imagine working on a product I wasn't passionate about and genuinely wanted to succeed. Most of my motivation is based around doing interesting and socially valuable work. This doesn't have to be groundbreaking, but knowing I'm helping put out some good in the world is a large factor in choosing and staying with a company.

The team is also important, of course, but it's minor compared to the product as the way of working remotely is quite different from being in an office. To me it's mostly for the better, since everyone is focused on the product and not on some pointless team building events, company gossip or drama.

I hope you chose a more fulfilling industry than advertising. It's interesting that a sibling comment also mentions working on ads. I wonder what the breakdown of resignations per industry looks like, and how relevant remote work was in that decision.

>To me it's mostly for the better, since everyone is focused on the product and not on some pointless team building events, company gossip or drama.

It's very interesting to see how people look at relationship building with others. Many introverts on HN and Reddit see it as a mostly negative thing and equivalent people interaction and relationship building to drama, gossip, and forced friendliness.

I like making friends outside of work. To me emulating friendship in corporate environment feels cringeworthy and I literally see people forcing themselves into it. I also like to get out of the programmer environment as much as possible. I just don't like it, even though I'm a programmer myself.

I think there is a difference between team building through shared struggle (like new soldiers going through boot camp) and what hr comes up with as “team building activities” in the office after they went on Pinterest and searched for “team building ice breakers for meetings”.

At my workplace they came up with employee appreciation day. They make a slightly better lunch and they clap for you when you walk into the cafeteria. I much rather be allowed to leave 30 min earlier.

While I understand the pipeline where those ideas come from (management appoints one poor soul to quickly come up with something that looks fun on paper, is cheap, quick and doesn’t allow for any possibility of rule breaking), they don’t really help me bond with anyone.

What does help me bond is being part of a team with a great leader that makes everyone want to push in the same direction and makes us a unit. For that you need solid hiring that takes into consideration what team the to-be-hired person is going to be working with at a social level

That sounds like a scene from the office and I grimaced inside from the thought of someone clapping for me! Any of these forced fun activities are generally not actually fun.

One of my managers used to sneak around and whisper to people to go home early (like at 1pm) on days before holidays, now that was appreciated!

It is. The office is so accurate. All the way down to the donation campaigns and the toy drives and weird little events to hide that we are all in a gray cube away from the beautiful sun grinding numbers away

> Many introverts on HN and Reddit see it as a mostly negative thing and equivalent people interaction and relationship building to drama, gossip, and forced friendliness.

There is a difference between team building, workplace social dynamics, and genuine relationships. Thankfully, most of my coworkers recognize this. We work together as a team, the negative workplace social dynamics are at a minimum, and genuine relationships between coworkers don't exclude others or erode the confidence of others. Simply put, everyone behaves as professionals.

On the other hand, I have been in workplaces where the opposite is true. Team building exercises lead to cliques that reinforce certain relationships and erode others, coworkers undermine each other through gossip and use forced friendliness will conceal their intent. None of the relationships are genuine since you know that the drama will eventually lead to someone being in tears (sometimes in front of their coworkers) or leaving altogether.

For what it's worth, I have seen both situations arise outside of tech and both dynamics in play with both introverted and sociable people.

> much of my job satisfaction came from the sense of comradery of working on a team

I think this is a seriously undervalued factor and something I was completely unaware of.

I used to always judge job opportunities either by how well they pay, or how interesting the work is. But in reality, the social factor is just as important.

So some time ago, I was trying to hire my first employee. I paid a lot of money for job ads, and got very little applications. I offered the same salary as the other tech companies in my city, and I really tried my best to attract people.

I couldn't understand why people instead only applied to work for boring consultancies or even for an online gambling company -- why would people prefer such mind numbing or even morally questionable jobs?

I realized that the social situation at work is really important. When I met people who worked at the online gambling website, they weren't talking about the actual work; they just told me about their awesome boss, and how they had fun with their team mates, etc. It didn't matter how interesting my project was, nobody wanted to sit all day in an office just alone with me.

I think the OPs point was that the past employer effectively leveraged the social aspect to underpay. Now that there is a hobby outside of work, the latter is suddenly not a center of life anymore. The pay raise is the ironic reality of employers catching up with the real cost of labour.

That assumes that these social aspects are valued at zero. Money isn't everything in a job. Your compensation consists of the money, yes, but also everything else in the job. Good social aspect at work takes effort to build and maintain, so maybe, actually, those employers weren't underpaying at all. Again, money isn't everything.

Counterpoint: with basic human decency and almost every company following the same blueprint when catering to that social aspect, odds are in practice it really doesn't matter. Either you're an outlier socially and lucky to hit it without turning your CV into Swiss cheese, or you're more average and almost every company will cater to you the same way, so odds are high you'll fit in similarly regardless.

Good social aspect is still in the eyes of the beholder, and for people like me, this blueprint absolutely isn't beneficial. Nor is the risk of looking for an outlier culture worth the potential benefits, when that same outlier culture can be much more easily found outside work.

It assumes exactly the opposite of that. The underlying economic principle at work is that the social aspects of a job do have an equivalent monetary value, and now that they're gone, employers have to make up the shortfall by paying more in plain money.

Years ago, I remember someone talking about working in film. Ideally, you work on three movies a year; one for the pay, one for the script, and one for the people you work with. I've tried to keep this in mind when looking for full-time work and I think it lines up with what you're saying.

Consultancy might have a boring image, but the work can be extremely varied. I was at one of the big names and got to go behind the scenes at a major theme park, spend a night with police officers on blue light calls, watch open heart surgery in person, meet a lunar astronaut and eat lunch in a tv studio watching a live broadcast.

Wow, that sounds way more interesting that I've been led to believe! Did you just get lucky? What was your role?

I think you make your own luck for things like this. I was a technology architect which had the advantage of being quite broad in scope. I came to the company with a deeper technical background than some which helped, but I also built a specialism after I joined that was rare in the company. That meant if there was a need for that skill, I had a high chance of being asked to assist. And of course, when it came to change projects, choosing ones that held an interest helped. But for example, anyone who joined the project with the police force had an opportunity to join a shift, anyone who worked on the TV project could have lunch where I did, so it isn't all about the role.

I'll chime in since I also worked in consulting for a long time (still do). It depends a lot on what vertical you get pulled into, but I'd say it's 50% luck and 50% you putting in the effort to develop and prove you have skills (including social ones) to get staffed on interesting projects. Many consultants never see more than conference rooms and the home office, but the parent commenter's experience also happens quite a bit. It's worth noting that in my experience the more advanced you get in your career the more likely you are to work only in a specific industry.

This was almost my EXACT experience ad well. differences are I took 6 months off, wasnt working on an ad-like product, and my pay boost getting back into the market was 48% instead of 50%.

I recently landed a new job. I'm currently in the process of leaving my old job and awaiting my first day at the new one.

And I think this played into it. I was pretty happy with my old position, but I did have some small desire to find something new. What always kept me back was the fact that I liked the people I worked with.

But as WFH has sort of dragged on, I found that the social bonds have become a much weaker glue for me and there's a minor burnout coming from how stale it is working from home. The camaraderie that kept me at my job sort of faded away. The monotony and increasing apathy toward the people I was working with really pushed me hard into wanting some kind of change, and so almost on a whim I applied for a job at a company that I've been itching to work for. And I got it!

So I'm excited about my new job. I think it'll be more impactful and interesting work where I'm going to get to grow my skills a lot. And my compensation will be doubled. I should be happy that the circumstances forced the change, but I'm also a little uncomfortable with the feeling that it was an impulsive decision due to a mental state that has been caused by temporary circumstances.

I think, quite simply, remote work in the tech sector has redefined work-life balance. Rather than work 9-5 and go home and disconnect, you can mix and match personal and work tasks throughout the day. This reduction in sole focus on "work time" has led a lot of us to realize that work isn't everything. As such, for those who have significant savings, resigning and taking a sabbatical or an early retirement is an attractive option as it allows us to maximize our life balance.

For others, the taste of flexible remote work is preferred and so they'll resign and find a job that better suits their desired work-life balance.

Consequently, because companies are more flexible on location since they're remote, competition to hire talent has become a national game and not just a localized one. Therefore, salaries _must_ go up across the board to pay the risk premium of folks going to a FAANG. As such, companies that want top-talent in the midwest are going to have to pay significantly closer to Bay Area/FAANG rates, or settle for less than top talent (which is likely). For those who fall into the upper echelons of talent, though, the compensation and location are no longer mutually exclusive ventures. Again, this expansion of the game makes finding new work more attractive and with significant, and sufficient, savings, resignation is suitable while they lackadaisically find their next opportunity.

For me, being stuck inside with COVID made me stay at a job longer than I would have, because I'm stuck inside, might as well make money. Taking a sabbatical during covid lockdowns feels pretty sucky and even more isolating.

I think the american paradigm of "going out on your own" at 18 and not starting a family until you have had a career is what fuels this psychological damage. Immigrant types with big families seemed to not have this problem and are ok with whatever allows them full wfh. Myself, I never once lamented the lack of physical interaction in the office; it was a burden precisely because my full religious/family support group was always accessible even under maximum lockdown conditions.

… immigrant types? What “type” is an immigrant? Not all immigrants have “big families”.

Not to mention that our extended families are in the opposite side of the world, so we hardly ever see them.

It's an optics issue. Immigrants will come often come with family in tow and often live together.

Compared to American families which are spread out with usually only the immediate family living together.

So it just looks like they have bigger families- but of course it's usually quite the opposite, they are just new to the country.

Not everyone has the luxury of a supportive family or a religious group that’s willing to risk its members by ignoring quarantine.

> Rather than work 9-5 and go home and disconnect, you can mix and match personal and work tasks throughout the day.

Personally that sounds, difficult. I cannot multitask, and frankly the lockdown was horrifically lonely for me. Stuck in the same place, all the time, with no opportunity to go out.

I think there a variety of factors at play in the tech sector driving hiring trends:

1. There are, in fact, tech companies that still demand employees come into a physical office. There comes a tipping point in a laborer's market (tech being one of them) where this becomes sufficient reason to leave when there are plenty of reasonable alternatives that don't require employees be physically present.

2. Mental health is often overlooked in these discussions. The pandemic has been a huge source of stress, uncertainty, and general chaos. Many people (myself included) lost their usual outlets of stress (going out, meeting with friends, catching up with family, etc). From personal experience, this lead me to having a spat of time where I was burned out and had to lay off working at all for several months before joining a new organization. From what I hear, I'm far from the only one who's gone through such an experience.

3. In light of COVID, many people are facing the realities of mortality much earlier and more frequently than they would prior to a pandemic. Many of us have lost friends or loved ones if not to COVID, than to COVID caused problems (mental health, substance abuse, health problems that became critical due to lack of ER capacity). Having a brush with death is a strong incentive for people to reevaluate their situations and reexamine how they spend their time. For many people, work is not fulfilling and they may be more willing to adjust their lifestyle to prioritize things important to them that don't require as much money; or things that take them to other careers; OR give folks a kick in the pants to demand more from their current employers.

I suspect there's more to this trend; more nuance than is being captured by the current news cycles. The US has a diverse population of people in a variety of situations and the driving factors for hiring trends for bay area companies are likely not indicative of what employees are seeing from their side of the table.

> 2. Mental health is often overlooked in these discussions. The pandemic has been a huge source of stress, uncertainty, and general chaos. Many people (myself included) lost their usual outlets of stress (going out, meeting with friends, catching up with family, etc). From personal experience, this lead me to having a spat of time where I was burned out and had to lay off working at all for several months before joining a new organization. From what I hear, I'm far from the only one who's gone through such an experience.

Yeah, this is super evident in my circle of friends and colleagues. One senior-dev friend started an apprenticeship as a carpenter, another one opened a store for booze. Some others got serious about following their passion projects. Everyone seems to have a little crack or two.

FWIW, as a hiring manager, our stance on remote is one of the first questions I get asked. BUT, I hear roughly equal numbers of people who want Full-Office as who want Full-Remote.

In other words the flow is not only from in-person work to WFH, but rather people are flowing both ways and sorting into whichever lifestyle they prefer.

I think thats actually the endgame here: long-term all companies are going to have to pick Office/Hybrid/Remote as one of their core values and selling points, and there will be almost 3 distinct labor pools for each type based on what sort of work style a candidate wants.

I am fully in support for full-remote work as a policy, as I view WFH as right or at least an advancement that has been needlessly deprived from many white collar professions for a long time.

That said, I personally would not mind some in-office work, even only one day or two days a week, or even alternating in-person weeks. WFH feels incredibly isolating at times.

I think the unique and extraordinary circumstances of the pandemic have been incredibly limiting, leading people to feel trapped. Hence it’s obvious why people rebel against being in-office, but also explains why the people who didn’t mind working in person now bristle against full-remote. Zoom fatigue and the isolation of full digital existence also contributes towards the demand for full-office.

It will be interesting to see how this changes after the pandemic, when more freedom and flexibility hopefully returns to the workplace.

Not sure how it is today, but I felt DigitalOcean had the right mix pre-pandemic: 50% onsite and 50% remote. We could choose which we wanted as time went, and remotes could fly in and work from the office about once per quarter. This allowed me to be remote while also developing in-person relationships with a lot of employees, as there were always some people in the office (revolving remotes and regular onsites). It was the best of both world!

And there is the core difference....

For some socialization is stress relief.... for others, such as myself, it's stress.

It's completely to do with work from home. Everyone is fed up after what they had to deal with in 2020, and tech workers (almost 100% of them) got to work from home, many for the first time ever. After everything they've been through in 2020, it makes zero sense to willingly go back to work in an office where you put yourself at risk and have to deal with all those horrible things you had to deal with before 2020. So it's simple -- companies that try to make their employees go back to the office are losing tech workers to companies that embrace remote work. This creates the perception of a mass exodus, which increases the value of everyone's labor, which results in even more people switching jobs so they can cash in on their increased value, but I assure you, the root cause of this is the sudden realization that work from home is possible, and/or that non-shitty working conditions with a higher salary is indeed possible and easily attainable in this industry.

Even remote friendly companies are seeing people leave and higher turnover

Yeah I’m not at all convinced this is the explanation. I just started at a company in Australia where their office isn’t even legally allowed to open yet and they have still seen a bunch of people leave.

My hot take is that it’s a few factors.

* pent up demand from last year with people not moving out of fear but now feeling certain of the future

* remote work opening up a larger selection of companies to work at.

* tech companies having record profits and all wanting to expand at the same time.

And I feel like #3 is the most important one. They all want mid-senior developers but every other company wants them too so they go in to a bidding war and their wallets are stuffed right now so the bids are huge.

This will probably continue until a new wave of developers reaches senior level but by then the market may have failed to predict tech companies growing at an even faster rate than they are now.

Record profits and unwilling to provide decent payrises, using the excuse of the pandemic uncertainty.

This. The amount of trouble one has to go through to break the % cap on internal raises isnt worth it. Especially when you have recruiters lining out the door for your applications to companies who won't quibble about salary expectations.

Switching jobs has now become the path of least resistance to get what you want.

Maybe it's because of all the recent success stories? People are emboldened to take the leap.

Maybe it's because if you're remote working, you're somewhat distanced from the people you're moving away from anyway, it's less uncomfortable than hanging around the office for 3 weeks before you split.

I work at a large company that changed to become remote first in 2020, and we are seeing similar rates of churn. I am not sure this is the whole story.

In my experience, companies don't just become "remote-first" because they allow people to be remote. Support systems for remote communication, development, and career growth are vital. That's the harder part that most companies don't do well, yet still adopt the "remote-first" label. It's actually really hard to transition to remote and often requires a massive culture rework. I've never personally seen that done well, but I've heard success stories exist.

Just as many people hate it as love it, so I could see workforces needing to massively realign on that.

I think maybe it has to do with isolation.

For most of us, we just tolerate the job/company we are currently at. Social events, camaraderie and a sense of "we are in the same boat" causes people to continue on. Then lock-downs came and suddenly all of that is gone. You are now stuck in isolation with the thing you actually deep down dislike or resent. Previously, going to the office was like fighting in a pit, but at the end of the day you got to escape by going home and decompress. But if you workplace is also your home, you don't get to escape anymore. The same computer/screen that used to bring you joy, now triggers ptsd/resentment feelings. Thus you are stuck with your demon, consistently, without reprieve/escape. Thus people let those feelings build up, often without knowing it, and when that bubble burst, they feel they need to run away and quit. Some might even start questioning their whole career path and the nature of the work, and thus the nature of our society and economy. Thus the whole drive to work gets short circuited by those feeling of resentment when you want to work again.

That's just my personal feelings around it. I get the feeling when I look at our Jira board. Those 10 minutes before standup starts, feels like an eternity. Our scrum master is no longer my "friend", I just see them as a person that cracks the whip at this point. All while being unable to escape it all, since I have stuff that needs to get paid. Oh, and all this is at good employer doing meaningful work. Cannot imagine other peoples' dread if they get stuck in the same loop.

Beautifully haunting post that cuts at the heart of workplace existentialism. While it may be anecdata like so many other posts in this discussion, I believe it grasps an emotional truth experienced by many remote workers in this time, whether resigned or not.

> Those 10 minutes before standup starts, feels like an eternity.

I'm sorry, I don't understand this. You could join the meeting earlier and just talk about private stuff with your team members. Similar to what you would do in a physical office. Talk about what you did on the weekend or plan for the next one, what movie you watched, what you'll have for lunch.

And I think it is important to build these social interactions into a WFH environment. The thing that I feel really helps bonding with customers and colleagues, is talking about our kids (at least with those that have kids).

And of course it depends on your team, but in our team it's no problem at all to say you need to leave earlier.

I've said so in some discussions already here on HN: I would go back to the office if commute would be much shorter (by bike) and it wouldn't be an open plan office.

I dislike the amount of online meetings I have now, but it's ok. I try to reduce it by actively removing unnecessary participants and trying to make communication asynchronous.

I just find this perspective to be largely BS. Have you actually worked from home and/or are you really just a CEO worried that this whole office expense you've paid for for years is/was worthless? You are correct that most people tolerate the job/company they are at, and this extends to the bullshitty "make the CEO feel important" things like social events, camaraderie, etc., which you seem to be in the minority for liking, but this is a point for remote work, not against it. With WFH, you get to eliminate almost all of those things, take back control of your life, actually see your kids and your spouse, sometimes even for most of the day, and if you need to tune out you tune out. The after-hours issue of work bleeding into your home life is exactly the same as it was before because you still get the same emails and github notifications and error notifications you'd normally get after hours if working in an office -- nothing on that front changes. The same computer/screen issue sounds like a personal problem but in my case I do game on a different machine so I guess use some of that engineer salary to buy multiple machines? On the flip side, when I did work in an office I actually used my gaming laptop there as my work machine so this really has nothing to do with WFH vs office.

> Thus people let those feelings build up, often without knowing it, and when that bubble burst

How about the feeling of a 45-min to 2 hour commute at the start and end of every day, draining your energy so you start out your day at work already 30% drained, and get home 1-2 hours after work ends, 160% drained, and can't give proper attention to your spouse/kids? Or what of the feeling of having to live literally near your office and being tied down, forever, unless they decide to "relocate" you to some arbitrary location you've never even been to before (oh how nice of them!).

How about that constant feeling of being watched, feeling guilty about something as mundane as checking your bank account balance to tell the spouse whether they can make a purchase, or double checking the time of your kid's doctor's appointment, or (god forbid) browsing HN for a few minutes to unwind?

With WFH you can put your family first, and your job has to just hope that you're getting things done. It's the biggest transfer of power from employers to employees that has happened in a long, long time, and it's extremely positive for the labor force. I hope it happens in every sector, for every job that could conceivably be done remotely. Work will never be the same again.

As far as the media goes, I don't know what you've been reading/watching, but almost every article or mention on the news of WFH recently actually downplays public excitement for WFH and downplays the ~20% productivity gains from WFH that have been seen across the board in the tech industry. The media conglomerates don't want people to WFH, so they say "oh no some people want to WFH they = bad" when it's really most people, and the shift is inevitable and completely out of their control due to market forces anyway. Soon there won't be offices left to work in, because no employer is going to be able to justify the increased costs and decreased productivity of office working.

Been working from home 3 days per week before lock down. Fully remote since 7 March 2020 and been to the office exactly 3 times.

Not an CEO, "just" a developer that is also almost at the end of the rope.

I'm not hating on WFH, just my observation on some things that's been creeping in. I basically go to the coffee shop across the street every single day to get out and see other humans + sunshine (I live alone).

These are good points. I've been working remotely since the start of the pandemic (the office was closed down, so it was mandatory) and have no interest in going back to the office.

I wake up and instead of mentally preparing myself for a grueling 45-minute stop-and-go drive (no public transportation options), I can decide to go to the gym, run along the ocean, or read a book. Instead of scheduling my departure from work to avoid the dreaded traffic jam, I stop when it's time to stop and it's sooner than it was before.

I have no interest in meeting with my coworkers except once every two weeks so I can dress up and sparkle like a diamond. In part this is due to the fact that my colleagues are uninspiring people, but even if they were great people, over the past year I realized the toll that commuting was taking on me and I do not want to go back to the old times.

Yes, I agree that remote alone is not the complete picture. More anecdata: I work for a medium sized distributed company and we have seen a decent amount of churn. I have also been involved in the hiring process for backfills/replacements. Candidates have specifically mentioned that they’re leaving their current company because of RTO demand. The main reasons I believe causing so much job hopping now: RTO demand, money, new remote opportunities, demand for senior engineers, nature of existing churn in software business.

I think that the number of people that want to go remote, are not the same as the number of people that we think want to go remote.

From my immediate team(20), there are two people who will go full remote. The _vast_ majority want something blended or flexible. Then there are some people ~3 who want to be in the office full time.

Granted this is for the UK.

I suspect that there is bias in news for remote only, because they are the sort of people who already put out a curated vision of them selves (ie linkedin infulencers) We know the archetype, and we know that they are not remotely representative.

I've had a similar experience in the UK, in my previous job I was the only one who wanted to remain full-time remote this year. Management wanted everyone back in the office full-time so I ended up resigning and moving to a different company for a decent raise, but as far as I'm aware the majority of people there wanted either full-time office or hybrid working.

congratulations!

I don't want to come across like I'm anti remote work. I want a company to support full remote, I think there benefits to how the company structures communications to allow full remote. I just don't think its wise to go all in either way, either full onsite or full remote.

I've had the opposite experience. We had a team of 25 devs in Rhode Island, only 3 wanted to stay in the office in any capacity and all were open to the idea of permanent WFH. Several were excited about being able to move as a result.

This is how cities should have been designed with intent; Less cars, more organic and walk-able spaces.

The robber barons of the industrial revolution seeded their greed DNA as the basis for industrialization - which while obviously gave great progress, but at the heaviest of costs.

> Remote work allows better matching of people and jobs.

This is my theory on non-tech jobs too. You get stuck in a rut with a shit job waiting tables, when the pandemic hits and your restaurant shuts down. We’ll now you have to take a crack at that other career you told yourself you’d try, or you’d move back home like you meant to. Friction is hard to overcome. But when something external acts as a catalyst, matching improves. Less friction between employees switching jobs/careers/industries/locations is a great thing.

The people complaining about difficulties hiring were probably the ones benefitting from high friction. Now it’s working against them (it’s harder to pick up your life and move back to that shitty job you hated than to stay and do something else).

Very good comment. I think you can call it metastability. Or Wiley E Coyote running off the edge of the cliff. He doesn't realise it until he looks down.

A lot of people, more than most of us realise, are stuck living hand to mouth. No time or money to train themselves up to do something different. No way to build the networks that are often needed to transition. That feeling of having to run to stay still.

When the treadmill stops you have to do something. Perhaps it's swallowing your pride and borrowing money from a friend, or moving back in with the parents, but I reckon a lot of people discovered that when they needed it there was some credit in the system, note to mention actual credit in the form of government help.

So now all those people who were busy being busy have some time to actually think about what they want to do.

I still remember the days when people were posting on Slashdot that software engineering has no future in the US because it's all moving to India. As we know, that turned out not to be the case. Tech companies have been willing to pay literally 10x for engineers to work from their US headquarters. Now folks are again claiming that the era of remote work is upon us. Maybe that's true. But be careful what you wish for.

Tech companies have been willing to pay literally 10x for engineers to work from their US headquarters.

Outsourcing is very different to employing remote workers. When you outsource you're essentially giving up a lot of direct control over how work is done, who is doing it, what quality processes are in place, and what the deliverables look like. Companies like to control those things, and will often pay a premium to maintain control over them. Remote work maintains that control.

Part of this is visible because many remote roles are advertised as only being open to people in the same country, or timezone, or even state. Companies want their employees to be able to talk in real time (which is actually a little annoying..)

I don't think there's much similarity between outsourcing and remote work.

> Companies like to control those things

I mean, this is probably true, but in enterprise software, companies are paid by their customers to control those things and enforce various compliance standards like SOC-II. The difference between a piece of workflow SaaS charging $1K/month and $25K/month is fulfilling those compliance standards, so there are clear economic incentives in play.

I think the parent means controlling them with an eye towards making the project successful, on time, high quality, etc. not ticking the compliance checkboxes.

I’m actually from India, and since the pandemic started it’s been quite an equaliser. I work for companies in the US, and since I stay up late I can manage a lot of time zone overlap. And I get paid nearly (not 100%, but close) of US salaries. So there’s definitely a case of on the Internet no one knows where you’re from kicking in.

Instead of cheap outsourcing, I’m seeing more of an approach where salaries are cut slightly because they no longer need to be staffed in the Bay Area, and the job then offered to anyone anywhere in the world.

>>And I get paid nearly (not 100%, but close) of US salaries.

99% of Indians who work on outsourced projects, don't make any where close to that money. In fact the very reason outsourcing exists is because of price arbitrage.

FANG's are an exception to this, but that only proves the rule. Bulk of the world needs software written and maintained for cheap.

There are many offshore devs make $30k. There are also many offshore devs making $100k. It's not valley money, but it's good money.

I still think we are at the dawn of widespread adoption of remote work.

I fully expect the pendulum to swing the other way from favoring intra-US remote work like it is now.

Highly competent developers phoning it in from Peru, totally unlike the 1990s, very much seems like it'll be an extremely prominent trend in the future.

What was the 90s situation you're comparing to?

The oft discussed outsource to Infosys wave.

can you replicate the same culture?

The companies here in the EU of which I heard that they allow remote work pretty much limited their employees to stay within the EU while working. Is this different in the US?

Despite what people think it's difficult for a company to pay someone who is living in a country where the company doesn't have a presence, for tax reasons. We (Red Hat) are mostly remote but we can only hire people who live in countries where we have a local office, and there's no such thing as a nomadic employee, or at least not for more than a few weeks.

Thats interesting. I know of several solutions called PEOs that offer the ability to pay employees in a great variety of countries.

Apparently, even in China and India tech salaries are increasing. So the demand is so high that even countries with 1 billion+ population need to increase salary.

I fully endorse the outsourcing of labor. The mess foreign companies leave after they complete a contract leaves American workers with years of work to do.

But seriously, even outsourcing to American companies becomes labor-intensive and frustrating. Everyone overpromises, underdelivers, and you spend as much time managing external entities as it would take to do the work yourselves. It is useful and necessary because of the shortage / intractability of senior engineering talent, but it's always better to hire that senior talent than outsource imo.

I remember that too and I am was told by a software engineer at the time that that was the future. And it kind of was pre Internet. You had to be in a big box store on a PC. Post Internet, I think we will see a lot of "no code solutions" that develop but I think that there will still be room for software engineers plus software is eating the world so the opportunities are basically limitless. I mean it use to be 10k+ for a website with a form handler and now basically anyone can make a decent one for free if they want.

A lot of anecdotes in this thread, but it’s important to keep it in perspective: The current employee turnover rates are higher than they have been, but when you look at the numbers it’s about 2.8% monthly quit rate compared to an average of around 2%: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSQUR

So yes, it’s up, but the news articles trying to explain this as some sort of society-wide shift and pushing anecdotes of people leaving companies en masse are getting ahead of the numbers. It’s also ignoring the sharp downward spike in quit rate during the start of the pandemic, which has produced some ripple effects.

The economy is also booming right now with the influx of cash, people staying home and spending more on tech, and low interest rates. Every company that can take advantage of it is doing so by hiring.

> A lot of anecdotes in this thread, but it’s important to keep it in perspective

Yet these numbers need to be kept in perspective: they're quit rates for all non-farm jobs. The quit rate for any individual job sector can be much higher than the average rate. So while the average quit rate isn't way higher than the past few years, it certainly seems like the tech sector is seeing a lot of shuffling around.

Perhaps the archives are incomplete?

I think inflation is a part of it. There is more money around but always the same internal reluctance to give raises that match the market. So higher inflation implies that more people have to switch jobs in order to take advantage.

sure we are seeing inflation now, but the last many years, we have seen none to deflation, its a natural correction.

> There is more money around but always the same internal reluctance to give raises that match the market.

This is exactly why i switched jobs. My employer refused to adjust my pay for inflation.

Some managers don't understand it and dismiss inflation

The worst part is that some workers are being completely left behind and the divide grows greater. Tech jobs have kept up and exploded over inflation rates while retail and gig economy jobs are now paying unliveable rates.

IMO there _needs_ to be a complete recalculation of costs of living for the current year and an adjustment of minimum wages to reflect this.

The thing that I think would be the biggest help in equalizing skill, inflation, value, cost of living, etc is information. We need to break out of this bubble that has kept all of us in the dark about pricing. For physical products as well as our salaries.

We need to fight against giants that are using spam and sheer numbers to confuse pricing in the market. That applies to job boards, spam Chinese resellers, Amazon product listings, confusing Google ad prices and website listings, recruiters and heck even estate agents that thrive on information asymmetry in the market. There is huge value being lost/captured there for no reason other than a lack or restriction of information.

Sorry I'm rambling a bit.

A ~month ago I complained in the presence of my tech lead that the raises we got this year were below inflation. Last week I got a raise above inflation.

That and the fact that I don't want to go work in blockchain/smart bulbs contribute to my decision to stay where I am for now.

My theory is that covid imparted a large amount of mental and emotional strain on the population at large, leading workers to contemplate big life changes, i.e. grass is greener effect.

However, not all workers share the same lateral mobility. In tech it’s easy to reinvent yourself, to work remotely, and to change your industry. It’s also a high paying industry, so many people are financially situated to quit.

So you have two catalysts, 1) covid imparts the equivalent of a mass mid life crisis, and 2) employees in tech wield a lot of power. I hypothesize that these events combined and formed a feedback loop of employees quitting, driven by big raises granted precisely by the staffing issues caused by the quitting. The more turnover, the more desperate companies became to not be left without butts in seats when the music stops.

In June 2021 I left Google after 6 years. I outlined my motivations here [1]. Long story short it's a conscious bet that time and energy are scarcer commodities for me than money. I'm not sure I'll last a full year but I think I have a few months left in me.

[1] https://kayce.basqu.es/sabbatical/prologue

Please make a follow up post. I’d love to learn from your experience.

I'm doing weekly updates [1] and I've set goals to do a few retrospectives (e.g. 1-year after, 2 years, etc.)

[1] https://kayce.basqu.es/sabbatical/

Good on you! I took six months off after my last job - might have taken more, but living is expensive and I felt like if I had declined the offer I got as COVID started I might not have other chances soon after.

If you feel so inclined a nice project would be a RSS feed for your blog :)

I threw one together: https://kayce.basqu.es/feed.xml

From your post:

> As luck would have it, global healthcare plans seem reasonably priced. My partner and I got covered under Aetna's MHP Exclusive plan (their most comprehensive package) for under $300 a month total (not $300 per person).

As an Australian, this figure seems ridiculous, even if it were in $AUD! To give you an idea, I pay around $45 AUD/mo (but I've never had to use it because free healthcare).

That sounds nice, but does your insurance cover treatment in the US? Singapore?

I pay about 600 EUR a month and that only covers up to 3 months abroad (but abroad can be anywhere) — for longer trips I still do at least a “major medical” policy and I have MedEvac insurance, so my effective price for an ad-hoc global insurance is probably more like 700-800 per month.

Which on the one hand is horrendous, but on the other hand very competitive with serious global policies that cover everything everywhere for someone my age.

I'm curious what your tax rate is. Most countries with way lower health care premiums have it offset with higher "middle class" taxes than we have in the US. This is the big issue with changing the system here, people are convinced that their taxes will go up without their premiums actually going down. This is a reasonable concern because it kind of is what happens / happened with middle of the road (arguably worst of both worlds) solutions like the ACA.

Presumably, the tax amount is 0 if you're taking a year off from work and not earning any income, regardless of what the rate is.

Middle class tax rate is about 30%.

In my experience [1], these global insurances can either have limited coverage amounts, limited coverage duration, or will recalculate your premium every year as if you just joined. Regular health insurance would put you in a bucket and use the bucket's general risk to price everyone's insurance, leading to steadier premiums. They often offer little to no coverage in the US and Canada.

These are great for getting temporary coverage while you wait for a residence permit, but there are few use cases for them outside of that. In Germany, I actively try to steer people away from them.

[1] I wrote this: https://allaboutberlin.com/guides/german-health-insurance

My theory is a combination of (3a) (you have two 3's :) and an additional hypothesis that you didn't mention: people have a pandemic-induced sense of pent up angst and unease with their life, and so they are making life changes in an attempt to find happiness again. Obviously, changing jobs won't relieve the pain the pandemic has caused, but I'd argue there's a subliminal desire to try to change something.

Anecdotally, my personal experience supports (3a), since I tried to find a new job in mid 2020 and found the job market incredibly challenging, but then looked again in mid 2021 and ended up finding a job I was excited about.

1) remote work opened doors that were not possible before. We lost a junior employee to a company paying Texas tech hub wages in an area where most don't make 6 figures before 10 years experience or management. They probably feel they got the employee cheap to.

2) my partner and I are hoping to have a kid, the pandemic really highlighted the child care issues in our country. We basically decided if when we have a kid (which we've been unlucky in our attempts during the pandemic) were going to be a single income home and one of us won't work. At dual income, 25% would go to taxes, and 30% would go to paying for daycare. This, in turn, puts pressure on the other to seek those "city wage" remote jobs, which is probably a 100% raise, but raises job security and satisfaction concerns... But that encourages resigning and moving up the pay scale.

> We lost a junior employee to a company paying

Competition - simply beautiful!

Remote and increased liquidity are the two biggest drivers.

Remote is making people reevaluate work/life balance in general, some people that aren't getting their preferences matched in this regard are thus leaving.

Huge amounts of liquidity means there is now a lot more money sloshing around in the pockets of startups and public tech companies that raised money in the 2020/2021 equities boom. Tech companies suck at retention based raises (I still have no fucking clue why this is) so there is a large amount of reshuffling happening as people move to take advantage of better wages being offered elsewhere.

Appropriate retention based raises actually require a huge quantity of finesse and genuine ability from line managers and HR.

Even if a company is willing to do so in in good faith, a rarity, a "market price" raise consumes an extraordinary amount of paperwork and HR time and effort.

You take your employee, often parked with a nebulous job title and a role that has morphed entirely from the one they were hired for.

Then you have to define their current role and skill-set exactly, then research the correct band to index that role to in the job market.

For my extremely diverse cross functional team, understanding the market price for the SQL engineer vs the Python engineer in my niche is absurdly complex.

Half the reason they don't do it is because it's just genuinely so much effort to go to. And most of the time the engineer doesn't even appreciate it because they're jumping ship for a change of scenery more than anything.

Every employee you manage to retain in turn reduces HR work however, I imagine even if the sum isn't quite balanced (i.e it's slightly more work to retain than re-hire) then the difference is very easily offset by the massive reduction in disruption to the team in question.

If HR is infact the reason why this doesn't happen then HR is hamstringing the rest of the company.

The difference between companies with high retention vs low retention is massive in my experience, both in terms of code quality and morale. Anecdotally companies with higher retention did better with raises but also generally better with hiring (so they had higher quality employees worth awarding raises to).

>If HR is infact the reason why this doesn't happen then HR is hamstringing the rest of the company.

Yes, exactly.

The thing is you then have to hire a competent HR member to do all this. Believe it or not, the HR industry is actually even more mercenary than the software developer industry.

If you want a good HR employee, it costs money.

All in all it adds up to a "high investment, high reward", approach to hiring and retaining employees. Highly paid HR, highly paid employees, all as pre-requisites to a "good faith" market indexed pay raise.

But for many, many companies, this HR model doesn't make sense, or else management has decided not to implement it.

Sounds like management needs to reduce friction in order to improve efficiency. There is no argument that it is more efficient to lose a successful employee who already knows your business and hire a new one who does not.

A good system would be to always grant the retention raise when presented with a competing offer (without all this work you described), with a short window of time to allow for someone up the chain to veto.

The problem here is the competing offer. By the time someone has gone through the work to obtain an offer elsewhere they have already mentally decided they are making the move. It also poisons the well a bit in terms of recruiting/interviewing as offers come late in that process so if they are being done to farm offers to present for a counter-offer that is likely also happening to your pipeline for other companies, this is bad for everyone.

Retention has to be pre-meditated, you need to identify the market is moving and factor that into your budget. You are -already- doing this in the current system by accounting for market rates to cover attrition. So instead of -having- attrition just pay the retention raises and cut out the middleman and the disruption.

Agreed, let me restate. The least they can do is match / beat a competing offer without reams of paperwork. But you're right, they need to do more than that.

Let me add something about a tangent subject: What about tech workers with a disability? I hope you find this interesting, even if this answers your question only indirectly.

People with disabilities experience the pandemic the same as everybody else. Of course. However they don't have the same opportunities.

yadaeno wrote that he took some time off and when he returned he got a raise [0].

This would be riskier for me.

Sometimes people tell me to have positive thoughts. I will find a good position if I only try hard enough.

I understand that because people don't like to think about depressing things.

However indulge me and conduct a thought experiment. Try to estimate the percentage of tech workers with disabilities and their average salary.

What do you think: Is the percentage the same as elsewhere? Is the salary the same, higher or lower? Why?

[0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28974320

Working remote made my disability less of a problem. There are still weeks I can’t work full time but they are less frequent now that I don’t need to go to an office and pretend to work on bad days. Without a commute or having to be around people, I have more energy available to work and I recover faster.

Pretending to not be depressed or manic behind a camera once a day is so much easier than doing so a full day in person. I’m never going back to an office if I can avoid it.

It's about opportunities.

A story: Fifteen years ago I and my colleague from class we were selected as top engineers of our class fresh from university for an ambitious project. However that project got cancelled two months later. My colleague phoned once and immediately found a different job and left the same day.

Because of my disability I don't phone. I needed three months to find a different job.

I agree with you that remote makes more things possible and makes working easier.

But it is about to find a job at all. And if I found something I wouldn't have the same power to negotiate salary and benefits as others and must accept what is given to me.

Luckily I don't have the need to look for a job.

It generally takes me 3-6 months to find a job. I have the luxury of not disclosing disability before being hired but that hasn’t helped much.

The second (3) is quite valid as “I’m tired of this sh*t” affected all those close to retirement who didn’t need short term cash flow. Folks with no kids, the kids out of the house and the house paid for.

The first (3j also strikes me as valid as the possibility of f2f interviews was basically zero. Between social distancing and the collapse of border crossing and air travel “sitting tight” was prudent. Remote interviews lead into (4).

Edit: the loss of external child care forced some workers home. It’s possible the positives of at home care shifted the balance vs the expense of external care. And now, perhaps due to the difficulty of securing it.

1.Inflation. Money is worth less now that we printed so much more. Same reason why you see companies raising a lot at crazy high valuations. Nobody wants to keep cash because at some point the price of everything will catch up. Stock, house, crypto going up can be explained as that. 40% of dollars have been printed in the last 12 months. People trust businesses, houses and even crazy cryptocurrency with no real basis more than their government not printing infinite money.

2. People had a taste of remote work freedom. That's an extra bargaining cheap when negotiating.

People mental health went to the bin after being locked up for so long and they either: - had enough of their company - had enough of their job at all

Hopefully it will translate to more small business entrepreneurship. We definitely need those given that the pandemic favoured incredibly big businesses (unsurprisingly)

> People get large checks from the gov and are not pressured to find job. -> Irrelevant for tech workers

Want to mention here, even though it may be "Irrelevant for tech workers", employment did not rise again when these checks ended. This line of reasoning is false.

also if $6000 in a year is that much to someone, then who are we to judge.

Double that, and you have the Andrew Yang version of UBI. People seem to overestimate the number of people willing to be poor. Everyone I know would choose to work even if they were getting an extra $6K to $12K per work. The people that would choose not to work and would rather spend time with their family need that kind of resource far more than me. (But, with something like UBI, I would expect to get it too!)

Yup.

Also, I bristle when people suggest the govnerment was just "handing out checks" willy-nilly. That seems to be the perception every time I hear someone complaining about "the government giving people checks."

If you were unemployed before the pandemic, you got nothing. So for example if you did seasonal work, and the pandemic hit during the off season, forget it. If you weren't employed for a fair bit of time before you lost your job during the pandemic, you got nothing.

If you were self-employed, you got nothing (at least at first. It took a while but they eventually came through.)

Getting any sort of welfare or government assistance usually involves a lot of paperwork and time and hassle. For example, WIC - Women with Infants or Children - a program for mothers who can't afford to feed an infant or child - requires them to come into an office in person during business hours, every 6 months, to "re-certify" their children.

Most states require regular paperwork and record-keeping to "prove" you were "actively searching" for work, and a signed statement that you did so, etc.

Many state unemployment offices were completely overwhelmed and I remember during the early months people who lost their jobs were getting really desperate because paperwork wasn't getting approved, payments weren't showing up, phones weren't being answered. Lots of redditors in my city were talking about not knowing how they were going to buy groceries because they'd been waiting for so long. I knew a fair number of people who ended up moving back with parents because they couldn't afford rent or groceries.

At least in my state the unemployment office that was so overwhelmed? Now they have lots of extra time on their hands, it seems, and are chasing down people they claim they overpaid.

anecdote: This year, I was on a team of 2 and my coworker left for Google for a little under $300k. I told my boss I was going to quit to do interview prep and said I was making onsites for companies offering $200k, and they offered me $200k to stay. That was a 90% raise for my teammate who left and a 60% raise for me.

> I was on a team of 2 and my coworker left for Google for a little under $300k

I had a coworker leave to be an L4 SWE at Google earning the same in 2017. I don't know if the anecdote is relevant to the 2021 Great Resignation if people were doing the same thing 4 years ago (unless your colleague got an L3 offer for that amount).

check levels.fyi

In fact levels.fyi shows an L4 Google SWE earning about $270k. GP's story of someone earning $300k in 2017 is certainly an outlier.

Is it easy to fetch Google offers from late 2017 to get a distribution? I believe it was close to top of the range back then.

Regarding the $270k number, looking at the distribution in levels.fyi for L4 in SF Bay Area: https://www.levels.fyi/company/Google/salaries/Software-Engi...

The 75th percentile is $290k which fits the comment I was replying to ("a little under $300k") and by definition not an outlier.

Actually, looking at the earliest data points levels.fyi still shows under the same page, $300k doesn't seem to be an outlier in 2017 either: https://imgur.com/a/hhO7dQE

Anecdotally, Google has not become any more competitive in the past few years as far as compensation goes.

I am familiar with levels.fyi (and was back in 2017 as well), what did you mean?

This was the only reason I considered resigning. I know I have to do interview prep, even for non-faang, and it’s hard to do it after a days work.

With that said, given how this is my plan no matter what, it has actually freed me from whatever circumstances can arise at work.

So your boss could afford to pay you 60% more but decided not to until he was effectively forced to, and you figure that's who you want to work for?

Getting a very significant raise to stay in the same role is a strong signal that the company doesn't value its people and will pay you as little as possible in the future. I'd bet any money that your next 2 or 3 reviews will come with no further raises because "you just got a huge pay increase".

No company is going to pay everyone the highest amount they possibly can. Is that how you buy groceries?

No company is going to pay everyone the highest amount they possibly can.

Letting someone's salary get to a point where they need a 60% raise to get back to a market competitive salary is terrible people management.

You are right in the sense that my company was underpaying relative to the market. The reasons I decided to stay were:

1. I had been there < 3 years, and was at my only other job was 1 year, and I think that has at least slightly negative connotations on a resume to some.

2. I get to be team lead (of a team of 2, yeah), which is not something I would get to do anywhere else, given my 4 YOE.

3. I like my team and WFH and WLB and taking a chance on a new company when the comp would be the same sounded risky.

4. I didn't actually have any offers. I had made it to 3 on-sites and had a few more in the pipeline, but most were for lower compensation than my counter-offer. I went ahead and did the on-site that was for more comp afterward (I told my boss I was doing this), but I didn't get the offer there either, so I didn't really have another option to choose instead.

5. 200k is top-of-band for non-tier-1 companies for my area / YOE, and more than half of the tier 1 companies in my area were over an hour commute.

I quit in September this year as a director of engineering after working at the same place for 13 years. It has been a a learning experience. I had worked remotely on and off with the company throughout my tenure and the pay and bonuses were good enough for me. Loved the people that I supported, the variety work I did, etc... minus a few changes at my leadership level.

I mostly quit because I had a baby in 2020. My CEO told me about 6 months ago I was "too close to my son" in one of my 1-1's I think largely because I wore him on a few zoom calls to give my wife a break right after birth. I let that fester for awhile... stuck in endless brain loops analyzing my life and where I spent my time. A week after watching my 1 year old enjoy a cupcake with a smile for his birthday -- I quit. I miss many of the great people... but life is too short. It was the time put into something vs the time put into relationships I care about the most that made me punch out.

I have no idea what's next... for now I just want to enjoy some time with my wife, kids, and family which financially I'm so thankful I am able to do. We only have time and health!

Switching employers, especially in tech, to get more money is not a new thing due to COVID. For whatever reason, employers are more likely to hire new talent at a higher pay grade than give equivalent raises to current employees. I know lots of folks in tech who would switch jobs every 2-3 years and get a much more significant raise each time than by staying with their current employer.

Also, since there are less in office perks now due to WFH, it’s easier to focus on salary as the determining factor and not have judgement clouded by all the “glitzy stuff”

True. Catered lunch and snacks in an office with people I like to work with were legitimately good perks that I personally valued more than some dollar amount.

I did value these things as well, and still miss going into the office, but since it’s not a choice anymore, might as get something else in exchange

THIS --> "For whatever reason, employers are more likely to hire new talent at a higher pay grade than give equivalent raises to current employees."

Gets even worse around promotions.

Amen, this is the unvarnished truth. I suppose it's easier to overlook the employees and knowledge you have. If I stayed in the same company for the past ten years I'd bet on less than half of what I'm on now

This is true. But switching jobs this fast a lot doesn't look that good on resume.

My own anecdotal evidence says that I'm part of it.

I quit my old job in June to take a position that would be permanently remote forever after my old company decided they wanted us all back in the office again. It was actually kinda painful: I'd made a lot of friends at my old job, and my last day was two days before my five-year anniversary there, so it was a pretty sad goodbye. Also my new job pays so much more than my old one that it's almost comedic. Funny thing is, I've heard (thanks to going out drinking with my ex-boss) that the whole company is fully remote again after a short experiment with "hybrid" and they're paying way more than they used to thanks to getting acquired by one of the largest ISPs in the country, but I'm still not going back... nothing against anyone there (who are, again, actual friends of mine now) but I've learned so much about modern tech stacks (AWS! K8s! Helm! Terraform!) at my new job that I'd be an idiot to walk away from it.

I think #4 is definitely right (though not necessarily the entire story). For my entire career, it has been necessary to either move to SF / the Bay (blech) to work for most of the world class tech companies, or work for one sprawling enough to have lots of satellite offices (mainly Google and Microsoft). Now I'm seeing opportunities at all kinds of great companies that I can actually apply for. This started before the pandemic actually (I date it to Stripe's "remote headquarters") but has really picked up. Nowadays if I click through to the careers page of a company I admire and might want to work for, I'm surprised if they don't have a few remote positions. Only a few years ago, what always happened in the situation was "local only, based in the Bay" -> close tab.

I worked for a company where I had a great relationship with the CEO and directly reported to him. There was a reorg the January of 2020 and I remember thinking, "I'm on the bottom of this org chart", even though the product I was building was supposed to be worth 5x the current revenue of the company, and I was the only person full-time on it and was architecting it to be scalable and low maintenance (we can't afford Amazon level support staff).

I got put under the CEO'S twin brother who did not trust the tech stack I was using (never mind that three of our critical SAASes we were subscribing to -- including payments!! and 24/7 alert monitoring!! used that stack) "it was an unknown quantity" -- and then we had arguments about hiring (he pushed through a hire that three of the four tech reviewers thumbs downed, and I personally flagged as problematic because he had wrong code and asserted during the interview "I am certain it's correct" -- his code was so crap and hard to understand that took me three hours of writing a property testing framework to find the bug), then he forced onto a team someone "with Amazon experience" who I thumbs downed because his code was shit and didn't read the instructions (which is part of my interview acceptance criteria). I had found some great "almost seniors"/"early senior" devs who had the right attitude to figure shit out and deliver code, but he didn't want to hire them because they "weren't senior enough".

Anyways shortly after that I quit with no immediate prospects, and pretty quickly got a great job on a fantastic team (though the codebase is very brownfield), so I'm not sad I resigned.

Not a tech worker per se, but I do teach computer science at a higher education institution.

Pre-covid, my professional satisfaction came mostly from interacting with students. The academic freedom to explore essentially whatever you are interested in is also good compared to any tech job, so the job is not that bad (even if pay is not great compared to industry).

Currently however, with everything online, I essentially have to teach a blank screen, which sucks.

I am exploring alternatives, although I am reluctant to quit my job.

There is good evidence in terms of attrition numbers published by major tech companies --- it has gone as high as 22%!! India is also experiencing a major demand for software developers

It's due to venture funds, remote work & high demand ...

Cash is cheap. US, Europe & Japan have unleashed >$9 trillion since the pandemic in stimulus checks & buying of bonds in the market. Global venture funding hit a record high of $221B with 250 start-ups becoming unicorns this year. Coinbase debuted publicly with a market cap of $89B on its opening day. Indian start-ups have received a record funding of $8.76B

Salary Difference is Huge . The average salary of a software developer in the US is $107K with senior developers commanding $300K in San Francisco, a stark difference compared to India. Demand for talent is coming from all industries, the automotive sector hired more software engineers than the tech sector last year, all the more reason for going remote

Which means remote postings have risen by 457% since the past year! Engineers prefer to continue WFH as it enables flexibility, increased productivity & reduced commute times. Even the challenge of different time zones can be solved using good asynchronous communication in remote work

To recap, an engineer can work for - FAAMG (Remain the top pick) - US & EU software giants (Coinbase, GitLab, Automattic) - 3000 India Dev Centers (Eg: John Deere) - IPO-bound unicorns (Zomato, Paytm, MobiKwik) - Freshly funded start-ups (100s) - 2800 IT services firms

What is the impact?

Attrition rates in Indian IT will be at an all-time high of 22-23% this year. Top-tier candidates now get multiple offers with an eye-popping 2x-3x (not 20%-30%) raise. The 2-3 month notice period means candidates continue interviewing after accepting the 1st offer. Developers are consistently learning new skillsets on AI, Machine learning, cloud computing, automation, blockchain to be in high demand. No doubt, multiple founders have recently tweeted about this new competitive market & candidates informing before joining date

Recruiters & founders need to differentiate themselves not just with cash, but also with ESOPs, buybacks, venture backing, eye-watering benefits, rapid career growth & work even harder to retain existing talent

The war for talent is on

The funny thing is that the 2-3 month notice period was created so that people don't quit.

But now it has turned against companies!

It was always like that, people used to continue interviewing even after notice period. It was always known to be a counter productive thing for companies. HR departments work differently so they still ain't got the news yet.

Yes but in the usual market openings are low and budget is low. Now a days loads of ppl quit so openings are high and companies have to give better salary.

That tilts the scale in our favour.

So now ppl quit and then get multiple offers otherwise salary doesn't increase. That's the only way to get a raise.

It should be a crime, a literal crime to ask for current salary.

If I am let's say 5yr experience you give me appropriate salary as per your bands. Why is it a rule to give only 30% based on your current salary?

And then the same HRs cry on Linkedin about how people are not joining!

>>Now a days loads of ppl quit so openings are high and companies have to give better salary.

Has always been that way. The easiest way to replace people is to hire freshers who are looking for a break. That way they don't have to pay high salaries. This is why you see every year there is an ever increasing demand for freshers.

If you are experienced you need to be enough responsibilities free to attempt crazy job hopping lifestyle. That is ok for salaries sake, but no one will offer you loans, and you will miss out on the only investment avenue for (upper) middle class, that is real estate investments. So you can't forever play this game either.

Most people who understand how the long term game works, don't hop often. They know there is nothing like ever increasing 300% hike yoy on hopping jobs. On the other hand lack of stability means, you can't work on building assets, or making a rent income stream for the winter days of post-40s. And crazy work hours have a tax on your health. Eventually you end up losing your salary money to inflation, with no retirement stash and with diseases.

The only people hopping are really people who are easy to staff in body shops.

>>Why is it a rule to give only 30% based on your current salary?

Contrary to whatever you believe nobody has the demand to offer 300% raises to every one person. And I will drop a another cold fact on you. Most people who leave can be easily replaced by freshers with minimal training for 1/4th cost. This is not because companies are evil or something. But the facts here are bulk of the software industry doesn't need rockstars. There are not enough rockstar projects, to need rockstar developers.

And yeah most start ups who offer those crore rupees salaries never pay up. Several of them shutdown, most people lose jobs before IPO. Even if they have jobs, they'll be made to work so hard they'll quit. Sometime lots of additional clauses exist in salaries eg: Variable pay, conditional vesting etc which make that offer letter basically a scammy document.

People pay just 30% because they don't want to deal with any of this.

I'm not advocating for a crazy job hopping lifestyle. But without job hopping salaries don't even increase wrt inflation. I worked for 6+yrs on a low salary because I didn't realize early enough that I have to switch to get good hikes

My salary has increased now in much more magnitude than my old org. Also my friends who hopped 1 more time than me have significantly more salary than me. All in the same city so they have no issues getting loans or building assets.

> There are not enough rockstar projects, to need rockstar developers.

Is this true even for Product companies and captives?

> People pay just 30% because they don't want to deal with any of this.

Then they shouldn't cry rivers of blood when people who've stayed half a decade at their first company takes their offer to get 5 other counter offers and doesn't join in their company for a meagre 30% hike.

>>Is this true even for Product companies and captives?

Yes, even more true in Product than Services companies. And for a very simple reason. Shelf life of most projects is small, and it resembles to be quite honest 'throw away work'.

>>Then they shouldn't cry rivers of blood when people who've stayed half a decade at their first company takes their offer to get 5 other counter offers and doesn't join in their company for a meagre 30% hike.

They don't. In fact they are happy you left, if they had to fire you they would have to pay severance. Now not only are you gone, you can be easily replaced with a fresher.

It's a brutal market. Plan for your retirement before you are forced to retire.

Inflation in India is close to 15%(every thing added). If you are a rich person sitting on a fortune you have to invest and spend it. If you are worth 3 digit crores, you are losing 2 digit crores an year, if you are 4 digit crores you are losing 3 digit crores an year.

What this means is you need to keep investing money to even stay afloat, hence the VC investment madness.

India has seen this trends in the past too. And it doesn't end well. When businesses don't make profits the employees suffer. Loans are defaulted, homes are lost and careers are set back by decades. I call this job tourism.

I've been there and been through this several times. In the early 90s I remember it was considered a windfall period for managerial talent in India. When ABCL(Amitabh Bachchan Corporation Limited) collapsed it unleashed hell on people. Dot com burst, 2008 crash. It all starts with crazy salaries and ends in tears. In 2008 I personally remember filtering out resumes of people whom we called 'job hoppers'. Have a frequent jump trial on your resume? Congrats a lay off now means you will be job less for 2+ years. Even when you do get a job after that time, it's not like they'll be offering 500% hike on the market standards. If you don't show the jumps on the resume first question we'd ask is 'Can you explain the gap in your resume'.

Where do you think the exhaustive background checks come from?

If you are a big employer but lack quality applicants due to labour market shortage. Could it be worth risking some churn, with the possibility of increasing new applicants by seeding the ' great resignation ' in the media?

This would explain a really strange news segment I heard on the radio yesterday. They were interviewing an alleged “HR expert” who talked about the “great resignation”. It seemed to me that this segment was tailored towards convincing people to worry less about leaving their jobs, but I could not discern any motive that made sense.

I noticed that many news sources were pushing the "great resignation" message.

At first it seemed logical due to covid/wfh movement so I didn't think much about it.. but then the articles kept appearing. It struck me as paid placement especially when mixed in with unrelated news sections. I should have taken screenshots.

There has been a lot of weird reporting around this topic. From the beginning where there was no numbers to back up the news stories, to people creating weird manager strawmen to make it seem like any company that wanted people back in the office was as bad as slave plantation overseer.

It's all very strange and I don't know why.

Until recently I was at a small software company of about 30 people. The management pushed for a return to the office, and Covid meant there are many more remote work opportunities in the UK, so I left for a new role at a bigger company. So did another 5 developers (although two of those were recent graduates so I'd have expected them to move on). In total that was about 1/3 of the development team ended up leaving in the space of 3 months.

I have no way to know if that is typical. I doubt it is, but I've certainly seen practically every local dev company I know advertising roles.

Very anecodtic, but I've been working as Dev Lead in a startup before and throughout the pandemic.

The pandemic made me rethink what's important, to stop relying on the perceived stability that a stable job gives, quit my job and go study a Bachelor's degree in music.

I think I'm not alone in this sense... People have difficult or lonely time, which forces them to rethink priorities, understand that there's no guaranteed stability and hop onto the next step in their life. In tech, more often then not, the next step in one's life is a better salaried job.

Pre-covid to me it felt like I had to follow an employers rule of employment to the letter. Post-covid; it very much feels like I am on my own conditions here, both salary and terms of where I work (100% remote). Also feels like part of the resignation wave is coming from employers still believing they can run their company on pre-covid terms.

Equities have done great during covid. If you were invested in tech which many in FANGM were via ESPPs and RSUs, wealth likely significantly increased.

If your net worth hits a couple M, you make 200k/year just on interest. For a salary to make any difference to a person living a middle class life, they are going to need to pay you in the upper 6 to low 7 figures.

That prices you out of the market so may as well stay home and play with the kids.

Life is too short to grind away at the office working on someone else's dream if you don't have to.

How exactly are you earning 10% interest?

No one does that reliably. It's 5-7% after inflation on average, where a five-year average is expected to get you within 2 percentage units or so of that number.

Commonly large deviations over shorter timeframes and rare deviations over longer timeframes. The last 15 years have been one such deviation, maybe GP figures that's the normal now.

You can do it fairly reliably selling calls against large equity holdings. Doesn't have to be 10% if capital base is higher.

That's not interest, it's yield enhancement. You're giving away upside potential in exchange for premium collected, and you still have downside exposure.

Anyone trading covered calls on MM in assets already understands this. Interest is a simpler concept which leads people to more advanced yield enhancement strategies.

Giving away long tail upside in exchange for guaranteed yield is a perfectly fine method of salary replacement.

Nowadays, not everyone who trades options in a personal account understands the risks.

It's not interest and it's not guaranteed yield. It's yield enhancement. You are exchanging one reward for another, without totally attenuating the risk. You can lose money if the stock falls below your purchase price minus the premium collected.

Collecting interest can be risky too, but it's a question of default rather than price action.

Signed, Your Friendly Neighborhood Skewness-Man

I see lots of good points in these threads about macroeconomics and the pandemic, but I was surprised to not see more talk about tech specifically, or the bigger elephant in the room: remorse about being paid lavishly for work in the attention economy. We're living in a period of remarkable disinformation, and many of our employers profited from it. When your bread comes from pumping bile into people's brains it might lead one to considering something less destructive, more meaningful, and more sustainable. The sheen of SV was sullied, now its all secrets, leaks, congressional hearings, and spin doctors incanting. Tech was once magical in its appeal - not just about profit, but about transforming society to something more egalitarian and hopeful. The events of the last few years broke that spell.

> remorse about being paid lavishly for work in the attention economy.

The vast majority of tech jobs are not working with consumer facing products.

The companies that occupy the space on our phones and web browsers may seem like the majority of the tech world when it’s all you see every day, but it’s really a smaller fraction of everything going on in the world. There’s a lot of tech out there that doesn’t involve the small handful of companies that dominate social networking and entertainment apps.

That's a good point. I guess my point may be applied more broadly, i.e. I see a rise in social conscience about the impact of one's work. Somebody working in travel may become concerned about their climate impact. A robotics engineer may not want their work applied to weapon systems... et cetera. I've found it rather difficult to find a for-profit enterprise to employ me that doesn't have some ethical dilemma that comes along with the job.

Yes, it's real. IMO it's the following - 1. tech has flourished during the pandemic, and that plus money printing means there is a ton of demand and money floating around to attract talent. 2. after 18 months of working from home and being miserable during covid, people are ready for a change. that's why we see a lot of new home purchases, job changes, moves, etc. It seems liek covid has basically accelerated people's timelines by several years because they realized life is short, things can change in a flash, and they reassess whatever it is they're doing and whether it's something they want to keep doing, and a lot of the time the answer is no. Increased demand/$$ plus increased supply = ton of movement between jobs

COVID has also:

1: given parents a taste of new options for schooling their children. Many people tried tried out homeschooling and are planning to continue. This move decouples K12 education from real estate decisions and provides even more incentive to have a work/life balance that allows parents to be more involved in their kids' education.

2: let people vote with their feet more easily WRT state income taxes. People realized that they can now move to a low/no-tax state and take home a lot more money. Even if you take a 10 percent pay cut to move elsewhere, everything is cheaper than in SF/NYC. Your take-home pay is the same since there's no state income tax, and you can afford much more house/car/vacation/etc. in your new location.

I'm looking for other jobs. There's a long history of the company screwing me over and eroding benefits. I'm applying to other jobs, some of them permanently remote, with potential compensation around 50% higher than my current job.

We have seen a lot of turnover this year. Many people have left for higher wages.

"Mid-level workers are thus getting more promos than usual."

I'm a midlevel. They want to give me a low rating because they said I'm slow. So no promo for me. I haven't seen promotions for others pick up either.

My guess would he that there is increased retirement attrition, which we are seeing at my company. I think there is also increased demand for technology (like online ordering, delivery service, and other pandemic related shifts).

Honestly from my perspective, the companies that don't adapt to remote work to IT related jobs that don't work require "physical place" are the ones who are gonna loose talent.

I mainly work with cloud workloads and it's without a doubt people that work in my fiel dare moving from jobs because of the lack of full remote work.

I can't complain about my company ever since we went home we signed an extension contract to work from home at full time. We also managed to start recruiting across the country and not just the "local city" where we settled in.

I think the incredible stock market gains and home price growth over the past few years have helped a lot of people feel confident leaving their jobs for a sabbatical that otherwise might not. I know in my own case, even if a lot of the nominal growth is due to devaluation of the dollar, seeing a 7 figure balance on my net worth statement for the first time has definitely put swagger into my step over the last year or so. I haven't quit yet, but I wouldn't hesitate if something changed and I stopped enjoying my job.

Mostly no - if you look back more than a year, you'd see that quit rates are modestly higher than normal, but balanced out by the very low quit rates in 2020. If you do 2 year averages, the past two years looks the same as 2018-2019 or 2016-2017.

For which country?

Source on these quit rates?

Ever since I graduated I have worked in technology, SAAS (B2B) specifically I am 27 year old- Male, SAAS (B2B) specifically. I just accepted an offer to leave one of the hottest companies in the Bay (Went from 400 mil (2.5 Years ago, when I started) to 6 Billion today), I work in sales and have now been a part of 3 unicorns in the last 5 years. (All of them I started as an employee when they were small, 1 is worth 1.3B another worth 8B)

Here is Why I believe this trend is likely to continue and why:

Economic climate: the money being ploughed into tech startups and co's has not only grown but grown by 100% YoY see here: https://news.crunchbase.com/news/global-vc-funding-h1-2021-m... -Tech companies are the predominant receipent of these VC $$$.

Mindfulness/Actualization: I would say I am satisfied with my current job but the past 18 months brought about the perfect storm, I moved from SanFran to a small town in WA with no friends or family close by- so I had a lot of time to think and introspect. Secondly, I lost ever $ I saved since I started working ($392k to be precise)... this loss, helped me understand the real value of money- what it is worth and what it isn't, having some money saved aside- will no bring you happiness but losing it- will definitely lead to a reduction in happiness. - This leads me my hypothesis on why, this trend is happening at large and now, people introspect their lives and realized "good enough" is really not good enough- it made them yearn for more, more in some cases meant money or a higher title- like it did for me.

Emptiness Syndrome: This is my own coinage, the way I would describe this as is trying to understand the meaning of life, what is it- just getting paid enough to stay fed, to afford rent and then what? A lot of folks started to search for a meaning to their lives... See google trends on "meaning of life" and "Suicide hotline number".

These 3 powerful forces, created the perfect amalgamation for the "great resignation" - Companies with a shit ton of money, -People having time to introspect, and the Emptiness syndrome.

PS. These are the ramblings of a 27 year old, single guy with nothing to watch on netflix and nothing better to do at 2.31am at night on a Saturday.

Can we get the story about how you lost 392k?

Put all of my money into Alibaba stock options- lost literally all of it. I posted it on reddit a couple months ago, there was still 70k left at that time now its almost 0,...https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/p72imy/ruin...

Was a very dumb move :) I actually sold out a day before my birthday at the start october... so I can start my 27's on the right foot, losses teach us and make us better :)

In Germany salaries are the same as 2 years ago, but grocery prices increased by 13% in the last 12 months alone... So I will work as little as possible, because all the money I earn worth less and less each month.

> In Germany salaries are the same as 2 years ago

Not in tech.

6. Inflation is pushing everything up but pay rises in your current jobs and not following that price curve. Jumping to the next job generally gives you a pay bump but if you include inflation, the current bump looks higher than normal.

I've seen this from friends who have moved in the past few months where the pay increases are not insignificant.

I am looking for a job where I actually write code for real engineering problems. That does not mean play house with some framework bullshit in a permanent newb capacity. The web is 30 years old and yet many companies/developers still struggle to write the code to populate content into a web page and require stumbling around in the dark hoping a bunch of tools do their job for them. WTF? Worse, some companies like to have endless meetings all day accomplishing nothing while they blindly search for simple organizational solutions.

Some companies have figured out there is more to life than trying to pretend HTML and JavaScript are some kind of forced shoehorn Java or Python extension. Many have not. If moving to one of these competent companies means eliminating my wasted time commuting to an office plus a substantial pay raise then so be it.

Jesse, what the fuck are you talking about

6. People hear about a Great Resignation in the media, that includes a big pay raise. They want in on the action, and it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy. FOMO.

pretty harsh knowing a tech worker who's been disabled by covid and seeing you write off deaths from covid as irrelevant without any explanation.

first, no, not irrelevant. what on earth even justifies thinking that?

second, disability from covid is far more widespread than death. some studies indicate 10% of covid cases turn into long covid, becoming essentially permanent. that's much higher than the death rate.

My personal experience with ex co-workers who have taken other positions is that the main reason for them going elsewhere is because market compensation is highly competitive and most jobs require fewer responsibilities. For one of them, his kid's school location was also a factor: his mother wanted him in a Montessori school and it was a 20 minute drive out of the way every morning.

A simpler way of putting it is this: employers are set on giving employees cost of living increases, but a 3% COL increase can't match the 8% annual increase of the local market. Jobs that were going at 95K a couple years ago are at 115K+ today.

I quit my primary (sr swe) job which was crushing my soul to do remote work for a client for the same pay.

Now the remote client has died from COVID, and I can’t decide what I want to do.

Seeing how quickly one can go from living to not living, it makes me question my priorities. How many vacations did I indefinitely postpone because my work couldn’t be without me? Answer, many… some years with naught but one handful of holiday days.

If one’s work brings great joy and satisfaction, then that IS living. But for those of us who have yet to discover what our real meaningful passion is, we probably should not postpone the things that make us happy. Live while you can.

Low interest rates -> cheap capital -> lots of tech funding -> lots of jobs.

This is the only correct answer here.

Interest rates have been low for long time though. Seems you need another explanation to explain the recent increase in resignations.

A world with many changes?

Do we really have to put our finger on exactly why? Maybe it's a million small things. Maybe it is one or two major things. But maybe we'll never know.

The world was VERY different for a year and a half. In that way, any different outcome wouldn't be surprising. Would I have predicted a great resignation? No. Does it surprise me? No.

This was the case before the pandemic.

I worked for a university, lifestyle job with bad pay but plenty of time off. But when a plan to fix pay schedules was shelved and replaced with furloughs due to the pandemic, I took the first thing I could find, which was with a local company that's a total cultural mismatch and where my skill are underutilized.

Which is to say I'm applying like mad to find remote work since I like owning a house and having room to breath instead of paying multiples of my mortgage to share an apartment in a tech hub city.

But I also need to make up for the long-term damage the university job did to my earnings/early retirement potential.

“Having money isn't everything, not having it is.” - Kanye West

I hope you can find a middle ground of decent pay and culture similar to academia.

Salary increases are minuscule if you stay at the same company, but switching around let’s you avoid the power imbalance between structurally underpaid employees and overpaid CEOs..

Especially considering that the current expected salary of a CEO is extremely distorted by the fact that it’s decided by a board usually filled with other CEOs..

The embarrassing thing is that bloody Adam Smith warned us of this a few centuries ago:

“People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the publick, or in some contrivance to raise prices”

Some follow up questions I think are helpful,

1. Why is it more pronounced in tech specifically? 2. Is there a significant fraction of people who’ve quit and still haven’t gone back or is it overwhelmingly job changes?

I don't have a response, but I do want to +1 the posters extremely well-formulated question (and answer).

To play devil's advocate, I'm staying where I am. I think long term I'm better off here. Why?

- I just got a promotion from associate systems engineer to systems engineer. There was an associated raise :) - My boss is great. Can't remember names to save his life, but he's great at managing people. - My work life balance is exactly where I want it. We could be going back into offices, but there's no pressure here. I can skip the commute whenever I want to and put that time into going to see friends. - My employer's good about lateral movement within the company, and I want to be a full on software engineer. I got here from my once a week bike repair job with them and a tech support gig elsewhere. This is so doable.

I definitely make less money than I could elsewhere. But I've got good benefits. I've got good people around me. I have the flexibility to have the social life I want. I like what my company does. I like what they're trying to do. If it's up to me, I'll be around a decent while longer in two or three more positions :)

The only things that've changed from covid are: - I work from home most of the time - I have more work in my backlog to automate away the jobs that were cut at the start of covid (I work for a retailer. There were some spectacularly enormous losses for a few months there)

A lot of younger people out of college still live at home. They are free of financial burdens so they can easily switch jobs or take time off. There’s a lot less risk, and one of the better side effects of the overpriced housing/rental fiasco.

I also think the Pandemic has acclimated some families to the notion that one person may need to re-skill or look longer for a job (say your typical double income couple). One may need to stay home to watch the kids, whoever is out of work at the moment. It’s a shift in sentiment, one which once upon of time may have felt horrible. During the Pandemic, tons of families were going through this, so it didn’t feel weird or abnormal that one person was on the bench for a bit, as everyone in America was going through it. I think families are no longer pressuring themselves and actually opting out of not taking that crappy 6-month contract job, or that job at Wendys, and giving each other the latitude to prep for better jobs.

These changes are giving a little power back to the people. We expected the pandemic to be over in 2020 and it never happened, so we all had to learn patience and it spilled over to a lot of other things in life, including evaluating jobs.

Last but not least, many Americans have not gone to the theater, or ate in at a restaurant at the rate they were doing pre-pandemic. I haven’t stepped foot in a movie theater in two years, and have only eaten inside of a Diner twice in two years. The chip shortage made it so you can’t even buy expensive toys like a PS5 or that new graphics card. We were forced to learn consumption-reduction, and I think many people realized it’s not so bad. Expenses go down, and suddenly you are not so desperate to hop onto any job that comes your way.

I haven't personally seen a huge uptick in resignations where I work. What I have seen, though, is that it's very difficult to hire anyone. We seem to be losing people at the offer stage. And I work somewhere where an opaque "compensation group" in HR makes the offers, so I have no idea how out of touch they are with the market. We have many positions that have been open more than a year.

More than anything… being remote gave everyone a wide playing field. Both for employers and employees. Employers started to look out all over the country ( sometimes world ) to find talent and employees jobs. If it’s remote, you don’t need change your settlement and still make more money and further your career at convenience and from same office room.

Anecdote: Number of departures around me has increased but not significantly. At least half of the people who departed was because companies they wanted to work for no longer required them to move to new state (ahm.. California). Number of recruiters cold emailing me has gone up at least 2X. Open positions are harder to fill these days.

I’ve recently resigned and will be looking for something new in the new year.

My reasons are:

- done this for a while. Being on COVID projects gave me a taste of different but similar

- was surrounded by talented and some not so talented contractors making silly money whilst I was the only permanent employee making probably half. That wasn’t different but the noise got louder in my head. Why not you? Was the question in my head as I rapidly rose to lead a team of 14

- remote work. One of the things holding me back was worrying (unnecessarily) about having to go to strange places to do contract work. But my role did that already before COVID and since COVID so much more opportunity to do things remote means the size of the pond is bigger

- A colleague did it. Someone I mentor. And they grew and got stretched so much by new contexts in new projects. It reminded me of that feeling i got from the COVID projects. Purpose and being stretched to learn new stuff

3) is true. It took some time for some companies to catch up with their hiring processes, so it was harder to change jobs for a while.

4) is true. Now companies have to compete a lot more for our labor.

5) is true. It also leads to a corollary: our workload has gone up since our services are in greater demand.

There's also the point that inflation is on the rise, despite what the fed says. We can see that housing prices are up 50% since the start of the pandemic in many areas. We can see that everything we buy has gone up by 20%. You have to pay a 75% surcharge to get a new graphics card. The inflation in these major sectors makes it feel like our salaries and yearly increases are smaller. Additionally, as the market has gotten more competitive (for labor), industry wages have gone up.

The pay raise has nothing to do with the workers themselves.

Many had frozen hiring and everyone is hiring at once ATM. So you get inflated pay and designations.

Some tech workers are reevaluating their career track.

I am ok to move if I can change my career to pure engineering. I worry that if I do not I might stagnate.

I feel my company has had a greater number of departures this year than in past years. But I don’t know if it’s because a competitor is offering higher wages, or if I’m noticing a higher number because everyone decided to stay out last year.

Higher wages. I worked for a Fortune 500 company and got a 85% raise by leaving.

I suspect the following is a big factor.

Quantitative easing has found its way in property and crypto asset price rises, in addition to inflated startup funding.

The latter is finally trickling into higher wage competition. People then move jobs as way to hop salary.

I would posit that most of your points are relevant for the economy as a whole, but you are missing inflation, which is probably the 2nd or 3rd most important factor for the economy as a whole (after your number 2 and your first number 3), but the single most important factor for tech workers, who are seeing huge comp increases due to stock packages in an M2 fueled bull market. That, and remote working trends, as you mentioned.

When you can get a 30% raise at a new job and there is too much psychological resistance for companies to give those raises internally, high turnover is inevitable.

Before covid and normalization of remote work, I couldn’t afford a quality on-site programmer. With covid I was able to hire a better quality remote programmer for a lower cost. Work is now getting done that was not happening before.

There are two ways to reduce prices:

1. Reduce need: air travel, commute, commercial real estate, sears, middle management, highway speed traps, paper, wars, suits, gold, diamonds, brokers, theatre, stadiums, crowds

2. Increase productivity: software, internet bandwidth, gpu, nvme ssd’s, solar, batteries, youtube, hacker news, wikipedia, wsb, zoom, twitter, linkedin, Robinhood, tiktok

Every tech company was forced into remote working, suddenly now every tech worker is (really) competing on the global job market, and the market is adjusting to the new offer/demand. That’s my theory.

I think only recently have we seen companies adopt actual long term remote policies since initially the intent was to come back into the office. Also, I think it’s probably closer to a regional or national market at most. Most companies won’t just let any employee work from anywhere due to tax laws. For example, I can currently live in any state but that state has to have my company incorporated in it(which is about 25 states).

This would drive wages down.

Should drive the average global wage up for top talent.

Yes, there are some companies who have changed to fully remote and now hiring people from anywhere. There isn't enough of these companies to make even a small blip in the global job market.

The vast, vast majority of companies are still hiring people locally.

Source?

There is more money chasing fewer workers.

I moved jobs to secure a full remote position. The pandemic just highlighted what was important for me in life, and gave me less patience to put up with other aspects I would have tolerated earlier.

Unintended consequence of WFH during 2020-2021 is that it made the job search easier. Much easier to schedule virtual interviews than having to use up vacation days.

This is probably across many industries and professions, but one particular thing was extremely helpful for software engineers looking to change jobs - time for leetcode.

It's much, much, much, much easier to learn and practice leetcode problems and other related technical coding interview stuff while you're WFH than if you're in the office.

Almost everyone thinks about their jobs in terms of the people they work with, what that get paid for and sometimes the bigger purpose of their endeavor. Purpose was up until now not the biggest reason. But somehow in the pandemic it's importance in the average employee's mind has grown. Don't know why but I have seen people make career changes. Perhaps it is due to lack of working with people you liked (since everyone is remote).

I think there's no fulfilling narrative, just boring risk-aversion and economics at play.

First, your theory 3 leads to the 'increase' in resignations. Last year any job you could hold was a port in a storm. This year people resumed shopping around for the best job.

As for the pay raises, I think it's because tech faired better during the pandemic than other industries. In general, the pandemic was a wealth-consolidating event and tech fared well.

I think it's as simple as; more companies are offering fully remote roles, which means wages are higher (at least in the UK where it's centering to London wages, 20% higher than elsewhere). People are more open to these roles because the pandemic has shown them remote can be OK as a compromise.

So; higher wages, more choice. Even if you don't like remote working that much it's part of the choice.

Anecdotally, it's the opposite for me and my friends. We are new graduates who joined the workforce in 2020, and the value of our initial stock grants has atleast doubled. That's made it very attractive to stay for atleast 4 years rather than jump interview hoops for another company who'd probably pay less in stock/sign-on bonuses.

I can see many incompetent/below average tech workers being replaced with offshore workers (e.g. India and Phillipines) once international travel is permitted again.

COVID in countries that supply most of the offshoring has been devastating. Many people from India and Philippines resigning from their roles to move to Western nations to live a better life.

One word: Work Visas and Residency Permits.

That's at least 4 words.

In every HN thread that discusses this, there's one very important aspect often completely missing: international remote work. I changed jobs a couple of months ago, accepting a remote position at american company, and my income increased 4 times.

Why any developer outside of US wouldn't take advantage of this opportunity?

I think many programmers left due to their stock appreciating in the $millions. The rest enjoy higher salaries.

FWIW your theory 3 (the first one, "people avoided changing jobs during the pandemic") was verbally confirmed by Google HR in a recent internal conversation known as TGIF. It was also mentioned that if attrition rates for 2020 and 2021 were averaged, it wasn't abnormally high.

My friends in the last 4 years got 2x/3x salary increments without COVIDs help.

Tech inflation has been happening for a while now for the small minority.

I think COVID just caused more people to tap into it because of some of the reasons you listed. So inflation isn’t COVID caused, but the excess market movement is.

Can you clarify what "2x/3x salary increments" means? Are you saying people are tripling their salary? Or do you mean, like, 3x a normal (~3%) raise, or whatever?

Tripling your salary isn't unheard of. It's pretty common to start at $50k, then $100k the next job, and end up somewhere for $200k.

That trajectory seems believable over several years, but I thought people were talking over the last several months. (Also, I'd say even that trajectory is somewhat unusual, without something significant changing like a getting a degree or location change from a third tier city to SV, or something.)

I just quit my job to find something more interesting to do.

From my experience, this is the first time since the virus-drama started that I felt safe enough to take the step.

But I was unemployed when it hit the fan, and the first year was really tough since it was pretty much impossible to find jobs around here.

> I just quit my job to find something more interesting to do.

Heh, that was my plan. I ended up just settling for more money again.

I ended up getting both :)

It's real, I'm due to start a better role in a boot strapped company, that's just received VC funding; and for nigh on double my current salary.

And all because a colleague goaded me into reassessing where I was and where I wanted to be (they didn't do it nicely).

It's real but it's temporary. The pandemic had enabled a lot of tech workers to save money (not commuting, eating out, going on vacations, moving out of the bay area) and so many are taking time off to relax. They'll all be back when the money runs out.

I'm an executive at a european SaaS Company that got recently bought out by a larger one from the anglo-sphere. The management of the parent company is fighting tooth and nail to retain people and hire additional ones as they have strong growth targets, and are adding more HR Staff because of this.

Due to the acquisition I'm in the position to talk to random people all over the organization from a semi-outside perspective and it has given me some insight I was lacking of this company, I assume many anglo-american companies share:

1. This company cannot divert the course of their goal to lower engineering cost, it's engrained in their financial models that push them towards IPO. -> Lowering engineering cost meant opening up offices in europe, eastern europe and asia and paying slightly above the local rate. -> This strategy is starting to fall apart as the labor quality from these places AT THE PRICEPOINT is dropping, as the experienced engineers have started working for full U.S. or full central european salaries and aren't going back. It will take a lot of time until the "our HR just isn't effective at hiring & retaining"-narrative changes into the "our strategy doesn't apply to the global labor market anymore"-narrative because the waters are extremely muddy.

2. If you pay for actual data, you can basically only get simple spreadsheets of salary/profession & level, the sources of which seem very unreliable and the conclusions you draw from them unhelpful. The employees themselves also don't make good decisions as on their behalf and so false signalling is going on a lot.

3. It takes management clout to push through U.S. Salaries for people in lower-income environments and is depending on the company culture frowned upon so kept a secret if it occurs. This has the potential to create cabals and "more equal than others" pockets in the org-chart.

4. The very people tasked with retaining their teams are also affected by the shifting landscape themselves and depending on their stance become very emotional around this topic as the pressure on them increases. Some develop a stockholm-syndrome-esque attitude when they personally don't want to leave or feel they don't deserve more, that creates tension because they quickly arrive at unhealthy points of the discussion and say things like "if you are only in it for the money, this is not the place" which is something you don't ever want your manager to phrase like that, although because of 1-3, this is going to be true for quite some time.

5. The employee-part of the discussion about payscale and cost-of-living adjustments is just getting started as inflation is increasing, open Q&A meetings have started to revolve around this topic. As much as the communication is centered on positivity for this company, this seems to cloud every other topic as a segment of the employees have stopped thinking further ahead than 6 months as they seem to wait how this will play out.

All in all, I'm very unsure if I will be able to stay at this company because of this situation, ironically this would hurt me financially, but the environment does not feel like a healthy one where I'd not only enjoy my time but will do anything but crisis management.

Asshat bosses want bums on seats in plague pit openplan offices even if #WFH is eminently possible and as someone over 60 even vaccinated I'm still more at risk than I'd like.

If I was more financially secure I'd resign in a heartbeat, so looking around for a remote job.

> I think covid was a splash of cold water that's caused many of the people in my circle to re-evaluate how they spend their time. Tech workers are so in demand that we can freely change jobs so it follows that many people would availing that option.

This sums it up.

I choose my job based on the commute time. One month after starting, covid hit and I worked remote only.

Then I heared from freelancer friends that now almost all their projects became remote only as well.

I quit my job a few months ago and work as a freelancer from home now.

How do you find clients?

I created a profile on a freelancer portal. I got 3 calls and a LinkedIn message from recruiters the same day.

After 3 weeks, I was able to sign a project contract.

Interesting, do you mind sharing which freelancer portal? Was is a local one in your country?

The chaos and government intervention merely accelerated trends in the economy.

COVID-era restrictions to Europe and India are dropping on November 8th. Be prepared for a reflux of desperate migrants who will happily take those jobs. (Disclaimer: I'm one of them).

I'm about to quit this coming Friday, for most of the same reasons stated by everyone else in the last few months, so not going repeat them. I do not live in America but have similar issues where I live.

In my case, and some other people I know (though not all in tech) it was a lot of things that existed for a while, and covid was just the last drop. Not sure I can generalize it, but it's my experience.

as a layer1 technician, I've noticed a roll out of certain tech that couldn't or wouldn't have been implemented without pandemic.

-Wireless infrastructure and APs companies that perhaps didn't have wireless infrastructure in place were now forced to. [AP for tablets due to take out increases] -suddenly end users were forced to grant remote access to their home lan and pcs -crypto has really taken off

My wife and I are excited to work overseas after being unable to travel since 2019.

We will both be resigning in the near future to move overseas.

Don't like remote work. I like working at office. Like interacting directly with colleagues than through video chat.

the first three should expect a pay rise on average (similarly to what's happening), as most job changes are associated with a pay rise.

on 4: there is some systemic data that has been available for years that this is the case. Wouldn't be surprised for the awareness to have spread and people adapting accordingly.

Also, the building of the new Amazon HQ is having an effect on the DC Metro area labor pool.

I think at my current work place that I'll soon leave management was caught completely off-guard by wfh. They used to have wfh occasionally but people were mostly using the time for 20% stuff so to say. Technically it's not that demanding but socially (or rather politically) and they completely failed to translate this into the online sphere. More than half of the original team either changed internally or left. For another team it was even more. Personally the time has been stressful and I'm looking forward to spend a few months working on some creative projects.

Also the job market has really changed I think. Salaries seem to have increased and wfh seems more accepted.

Inflation.

very insightful

In my experience, it's a real thing.

Lockdown was a catalyst for offline to online. Tech was the epicenter of this. This also fueled deliveries, which requires tracking and optimization (of packages and the hordes of new delivery people). Then other related stuff - remote communication, payments, etc, etc. There was just endless tech stuff to do. Even hardware stuff like drones had more demand.

There was also a sudden drop in things that rich people could invest in. Early 2021, a lot of companies decided capital was cheap and companies with good revenue started raising money, then hiring/expanding. Crypto boomed and bust again, but it fueled some more startups who made money off crypto infrastructure.

A lot of tech workers were forced to come to office during the pandemic. A factory worker might be a lot more tolerant to this. But I found it highly insulting and inefficient to risk my family's lives for something of lower productivity, and that was the last straw. Plus offices were poorly maintained and being downgraded at this point. I decided I did not want to return to office after the next lockdown and started job hunting at this point.

Mid-late 2020, people started quitting jobs. The surge in demand combined with the drop in supply created a kind of vacuum.

This probably wasn't felt in richer countries, but remote work meant that it suddenly made sense to outsource to other countries. In developing countries, we had a double surge from developed countries. Australians decided to outsource to Malaysia and other companies. Suddenly Malaysian companies were competing with Australian wages, making more people quit. I was personally getting offered 2.5x wages and the interview bar was much, much lower than usual. A good job used to take weeks of interviews, and now it was a weekend.

Mid 2021, remote/hybrid work was already offered up front. I basically rejected all interview offers that didn't allow remote, unless on site was necessary (e.g. drones or factory machinery). My sister was an intern and did the same - normally interns would be told to screw off for any disagreement.

By Aug 2021, I'd have a very good company inviting me to interview with them almost every week. Oil conglomerates, brands like Nokia and Motorola, Fortune 500, unicorns offering top tier wages and vacation time, small companies that pay well for routine maintenance work. Companies that rejected me in the past were suddenly offering the jobs again (you know that thing where they say they'd keep your resume on file?)

Eventually I did end up with a dream job, where I get to focus on making the users happy.

tl;dr: market forces created a lot of good jobs. So people are resigning and moving closer to theirs, which isn't necessarily better pay. Developing countries have a windfall thanks to remote, followed by startups, but the extra demand means everyone else feels it too.

Generally it's kicking out foreign workers and banning/discouraging people from expensive things/ideas like international travel, living in cities is 'cool', leaving the house to see friends rather than watching Popcorn Time.

For IT I'd be wanting to hear what the Indian part of HN says.

Generally for the West it's been at the expense of the developing countries.

How is IT in India and other non Western countries doing? They should rule out 4 (Are they being matched better in the USA?) but could confirm 5.

Crypto riches

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