Can he accurately predict the accuracy of his predictions? I think that's an important factor.

That said, you're right, but I was not focused on him, but on the bias that can be produced in other people when reading things like this.

Though to be honest, I even worry that I have this bias as well. Like because I researched something, yet pretty inconclusive, I feel somehow better equipped to bet on it, and yet I have no idea if at that point I'm doing better than random.