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Comment by danpalmer | Hacker News Reader

Uber and Lyft are the best examples of the VC cycle:

Disruptor comes along to stagnant industry. Pumps cash into growth, discounts get many people on board, crap service is made up for with liberal refunding by customer service. Push for profitability hits discounts, acquisition slows because it's no longer cheaper than the thing it was disrupting before, customer service stop refunding things and customers leave because they realise the service has pretty bad flaws. Incumbents have finally met the new table-stakes features to compete, disruptor isn't significantly better.

See also: takeaway deliveries, meal kits, buying books online, and pretty much anything else.

These cycles always look like they're going to be a 100% improvement, but always end up being a 10% improvement once everything settles down.

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> crap service

Sorry, but Uber is a 100% improvement service improvement over cabs in many areas.

I lived in Chicago for six years and not one single cab I took during the whole six years would accept a credit card, despite being obligated to do so. If I didn't have cash I was told that we could drive to an ATM or I could get out.

Not to mention that the drivers almost invariably talked on the phone the entire time. And while not the norm, I had half a dozen confrontations with cab drivers who were obviously trying to scam me with "broken meters" or obviously roundabout routes.

I haven't had a single bad experience with an uber or lyft. Most are unremarkable, which is fine. So 100% of my cab experiences in Chicago were bad and 100% of my uber/lfyt experiences have been fine or better.

Of course not everywhere is Chicago (though US cab companies generally seem to have miserable service). Tokyo taxis have world class service, and it is perhaps not a coincidence that Uber has only a tiny presence there.

> Tokyo taxis have world class service, and it is perhaps not a coincidence that Uber has only a tiny presence there

Funny you mention this. I actually had a bad taxi experience in Japan of all places: asked the hotel to call for one multiple times, 40 minutes later it never showed up, so I requested an Uber, and got a car in 5 minutes (this was in Kyoto, though, not Tokyo)

Can't agree more. Lately I've been taking taxis from the airport, since it's usually more convenient to just wait in line at the taxi stand than to play roulette with the apps. And oftentimes cheaper. But the last time I took a taxi the damn card reader didn't work and the driver made me feel like a criminal, and I had to download some app to pay via Apple Pay.

Their card reader probably worked fine. My theory is the cab driver prefers to use their own payment methods because they are “off the record” and they probably turn into cash in the drivers pocket much faster than using the one provided by the cab service.

Here in Washington DC, the regulators are serious about cracking down on that kind of thing. They even have a squad car with lights and everything.

> crap service is made up for with liberal refunding

Uber has crap service? I was under the impression the whole point of Uber becoming so ubiquitous as to become a verb was that you could actually get service at all in a timely fashion whereas cabs had a terrible reputation.

IMHO, if you're only looking at rides, you've got your consumer hat on and I think you're missing the big picture. Uber is still not done trying to eat the world so to speak. The food delivery vertical is one of its most well known growth markets, but it also has eyes on the actual hailable taxi market[0], buses/high capacity vehicles[1], deliveries/logistics market (uber direct[2], uber freight[3]), it's building up loyalty program strategies a la costco/amazon prime/visa (uber pass[4]), etc. Basically, anything that remotely involves wheels is game for Uber.

This thirst is what I think characterizes unicorns: Google started as a one trick pony with search, and now has maps, docs, android, GCP, Waymo and a million other things. Amazon was a just a book store and now it's basically synonymous with online shopping and cloud infrastructure services.

[0] https://www.themuse.com/jobs/uber/hailables-lead

[1] https://www.uber.com/en-EG/blog/introducing-uber-bus-a-new-w...

[2] https://www.uber.com/newsroom/moving-more-of-what-matters-wi...

[3] https://www.uber.com/us/en/freight/

[4] https://www.uber.com/us/en/ride/how-it-works/uber-pass/

> Uber has crap service? I was under the impression the whole point of Uber becoming so ubiquitous as to become a verb was that you could actually get service at all in a timely fashion whereas cabs had a terrible reputation.

How quickly we forget. When I did traveling-consulting for a year and a half — a mistake — I heard horror stories from the quite recent past: for instance, the New York taxi driver who clearly wasn't supposed to be the one driving the cab and thus refused to take a credit card payment (as mandated by law) with the (working) credit card machine. Instead he demanded cash, and drove my colleague to an ATM against his will holding his luggage hostage. And the one time I took an actual taxicab home from LaGuardia — hoping to save the hassle of a pickup in the cold — my driver got pulled over for running a red light.

Yeah, Uber and Lyft are both sketch as heck, but they've got nothing on the world's taxis.

And that's compared to Taxis in the USA... anyone who has used a Taxi here in Mexico know how shady, unclean and terribly maintained they are. There are cars whose back seat is teared down and the foam is going out. Cars literally without seatbelts. Taxi drivers often REFUSE to use the Taxi meter and charge you whatever the heck they want (I had a taxi driver turn off the meter just when we were about to arrive to a destination).

Freaking Taxis are mafias, and the people that drive them are part of it. I consider them part of the problem, specially now that there is an alternative.

Uber, Didi and others may be a lot of things (over here I feel they became more expensive), but bad service they definitely don't have.

Uber also engage in mafioso tactics, I am sure all here can agree on this. The difference is where the impact is felt. It's great that for now, Uber can ensure a higher-class experience than what was available to most previously. However, the luster is already quickly coming off of Uber & co.

Have you recently had to supply Uber with your photo for "mask proof," before requesting service? Are you comfortable with all the grotesque data mining they're doing with that in the name of "health & safety?" Have you read about Uber's horrific data mining practices, privacy violations, and generally bad-faith actions they've undertaken against individuals and drivers?

In places like Mexico especially, these sorts of things should concern you immensely. Perhaps it's still worth it for you - however, perhaps it's worth considering the lifestyle you and other Uber users live, and considering whether living in densely populated & corrupt major metropolises is actually a good economic decision in the long-term. Without these horrific starting conditions, the point of Uber's existence in the first place is highly suspect.

Why didn't your colleague call the police when the taxi driver kidnapped him? Are you sure he was taken against his will?

Because he deemed it less risk and hassle.

> Instead he demanded cash, and drove my colleague to an ATM against his will holding his luggage hostage.

This is kidnapping.

Uber's advantage was the ease of using the app to find a ride, but in many places local cab companies got their own app to match the competition. In many cities there are lots of times where Uber's availability and pricing algorithms mean it is quicker & cheaper to use a local cab company instead. I moved out of London a few years ago but had already stopped using Uber as other companies were much better.

Food delivery is very low margin and companies have realised there is pretty much no money to be made here as an expensive middle man. So in many cities food delivery companies are creating their own food preparation businesses to try to make profit that way. Most of these markets are low margin and providing wheels alone isn't enough to pay for an expensive multi-national.

At least in my city, the taxi service had an "app" which theoretically allowed you to book a cab, but in reality, it was a crapshoot whether they would show up. It just put in a request to the dispatch but if nobody ever came to pick me up, calling the number just got me the same unhelpful dispatch.

This doesn't even get into the constant scams I would run across. Usually it was just drivers not running a meter and then charging some ridiculous price at the end of the ride. I don't care if you want the fare "off the book" so you can pocket the whole thing. Hustle your employer all you want, but don't hustle me.

I got into the habit of asking them to run the meter every time they started to drive off without starting it. If they still insisted that it was broken, I'd ask how much they wanted to charge me. If it was reasonable, I would accept. If it was stupid, I'd get out.

For all the complaints about Uber/Lyft, as a passenger, they are much more reliable and I know roughly what to expect every time.

So... are you trying to claim that Uber isn't a crapshoot whether the driver will actually show up?

I mean, many small towns have local food joints, but people driving by the highway will still stop at the McDonalds. I think Uber is kinda the McDonalds of transportation; travelers pretty much never want to bother finding out what the local taxi company is called nor they want to take risks with possibly unreliable/sketchy service.

I think Uber Eats' marketing of "we're not the jealous type" kinda expresses it well: there are use cases where Uber is undoubtedly superior (convenient ride summoning), and for other cases where cabs fit the use case, it's often a low-stakes choice, such that things like branding and reputation might trump other qualitative metrics such as price.

And for what it's worth, in many markets, Uber offers a bunch of price-oriented services that taxis simply aren't able to: the pool service was the most well known offering in the US, but in Brazil for example, it also serves "I need a ride NOW, and willing to pay premium, take my money" (the Prioridade service) and "I'm very price sensitive and willing to ride a motorcycle to save a few bucks" (the Moto service).

> Food delivery is very low margin and companies have realised there is pretty much no money to be made here as an expensive middle man

Somebody should probably tell that to the millions of public market investors who have bought into these public companies worth tens of billions of dollars.

https://www.google.com/search?q=doordash+stock&oq=doordash+s...

https://www.google.com/search?q=uber+stock

https://www.google.com/search?q=grub+stock&oq=grub+stock

In fact if you're sure there's no money to be made, you could short them all and make a killing. Have you done that?

That's a whole other discussion. Having a good stock price does not equate to profitability. Vast amounts of money are pumped into loss making companies in the hope of future returns, either when other people pump money in to raise the price, or a profit is eventually returned. Uber has yet to post a profitable quarter, let alone year. Doordash has had one quarter in the black. This is during a pandemic, when use of these services has skyrocketed.

By some analysis, food delivery companies have a potential margin of about 2% from delivery alone. Which is why these companies are trying to find other ways to take in more per order and hopefully one day make a profit.

Agreed - Uber is amazing and I’m glad they pushed through all of the regulatory bullshit to defeat cabs.

I can call a car from almost anywhere in the world and have a ride in a few minutes for a reasonable price - that’s a huge shift.

>Uber is amazing and I’m glad they pushed through all of the regulatory bullshit to defeat cabs.

Remember, effectively you have said law breaking is acceptable. In this case, it may be partly even true, but once this catches on, anarchy, literally one step away.

How is anarchy one step away? Vs hundreds of steps away? Nearly every one breaks the law in small or bigger ways some of the time. There’s some studies that have shown more well off people cheat/break the law and justify it more often.

>Basically, anything that remotely involves wheels and cultivating a precarious, contracted workforce is game for Uber.*

Anecdotes are not data etc, but my daughter attended a friend's birthday party recently and the friend's dad told me he had been out of work due to covid so started doing Uber and was bringing in $3k/week and had managed to pay off a ton of debt thanks to that (this convo happened in SF last week). Needless to say, I was extremely surprised, as the media generally gives the impression that driver earnings are crap.

I'll buy that your friend may have made $3k a week doing Uber but he's either working an unsustainable number of hours behind the wheel or taking advantage of surge pricing that will work itself out in time. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if he's not quite as insured as he thinks he is and certainly isn't taking into account his costs to provide the service.

He may very well be grossing $3k a week but he's not actually earning that much.

While I didn't want to pry into the exact unit economics, being in a children's party and all, he did say he worked ~10 hours a day. But also he was very proud to share that he had paid off over 16k of debt despite the high CoL for a family of 4 in SF, which leads me to be believe that the actual take home amount wasn't exactly chump change.

How can you say Uber is a crap service? Compared to the predecessor of hailing a taxi, the consumer experience of hiring an Uber far exceeds it.

Depends on your needs. Good luck getting uber to the airport at 5am. I had no luck reserving a car in advance neither. In this case, licensed minicab met my needs and I don't even bother getting uber to airport anymore. Hailing a taxi is out of question.

Edit: I forgot how many times an uber driver was on the way and then cancelled the order. Or oftentimes they just refuse to go to the centre because of the congestion charge so you get out of the car, request a new car and hope for the best.

Yes, uber provides crappy service. Crappy because it's like a russian roulette - even if you are in the car you don't know if you will be taken to your destination.

Before Uber came to the city I was in at the time, you could not reserve a car. You could call one of the two cab companies and they would tell you that they were going to do it, but it was a coin flip whether that car showed up.

Anecdote and all, but I felt the same way. Hired a car service to pick me up at 6am. Morning of, at 6am, car hasn’t arrived. Dispatcher blames “mechanical difficulty”. Yeah right. Called the Lyft while on the phone with them. It arrived on time 10 minutes later, thankfully still made my flight.

I don’t live in an urban area but do live about 15 minutes from the airport in suburbia.

Yes Uber and Lyft are terribly unreliable for early morning trips outside the densest urban areas. The advance reservation features don't actually guarantee any car availability.

For taxis, depends where you are and what other taxis you were booking. Compared to a London Black Cab, much better, compared to a licenced minicab, about the same but via an app instead of a phone call.

For Uber Eats though, I've had them claim that there is no expectation of food arriving hot. First few times I had delivery problems I got full refunds and the reputation was always "give it a go, worst case you can get a refund anyway". Now it's hard to even get in touch with support let alone get them to acknowledge an order issue, and refunds are almost unheard of.

Edit: I had forgotten about all the issues with sexual assaults by Uber drivers. They tried to downplay the issues, but ended up having to implement a lot of controls to understand who was driving the cars, in some markets they now have to be licenced, it's all changed a lot since the beginning because of how the service was actively dangerous compared to incumbents who were typically much more tightly regulated.

The Uber experience is (or at least used to be before covid) way, way better than London minicabs used to be. Minicabs had no accountability and small fleet sizes - so at peak times they'd either turn up really late or not turn up at all, with no recourse.

I think they've forced everyone to change now - if they disappeared tomorrow another operator would fill the void. But when Uber first started operating it was a radically improved service.

My Uber eats orders were constantly missing items and they eventually stopped issuing me refunds when I kept submitting requests. I understand to a degree that some people will abuse an infinite refund policy but it sure left a bad taste in my mouth when my driver didn't actually deliver the order, just marked it as delivered and drove off, and my refund request was denied. That was my last order with them.

Heh, I had the opposite problem.

I submitted an order, it popped up "503 Service Unavailable -- Try again" in the app. I tried again and it went through.

Food showed up, was just finishing up and they showed up and delivered it a second time. Checked and the order had indeed double-submitted two seconds apart, and I was charged twice.

Obvious error. It would have been a superhuman feat to submit the order, readd all the items to a new order, and submit it in two seconds.

I contacted support and explained what happened and they refused the refund because they had delivered the order, so I had to pay for it. "Thanks for understanding." No amount of arguing that this was obviously an issue with their app got anything out of them besides food showed up, you pay for food, "thanks for understanding".

Upside is I went from wasting probably a hundred bucks a week on ordering food to actually getting off my ass and walking somewhere nearby and picking it up myself for half the price.

For future reference, I suggest contacting the bank in a situation like this. They're likely to refund a duplicate charge filed a few seconds after an initial charge.

Every food delivery service I've tried has been a nightmare. They don't check the food to make sure it's correct. It gets tossed around and mangled on the way.

I had one time where there was someone else's order delivered to me; literally their name was on the bag... the delivery person grabbed the wrong bag. Then I tried to get them to fix it before he drove away and he told me to call the restaurant. Trying to get refund from the delivery service was nigh impossible. I wound up calling the restaurant and the dealt with getting me a refund and the correct food.

I no longer use food delivery at all, unless it's provided directly by the restaurant. Otherwise, I go pick it up.

I’d say that depends on where you live but broadly I agree with you. That said, Uber launched in 2009. The iPhone was only two years old at that point. It feels like a big assumption to say that absolutely no existing car service would have realised the benefits of allowing booking via smartphone.

I don’t wonder about past vs present, I wonder about present vs a possible present where VC funding doesn’t flood the market and destroy competition.

A good comparison is perhaps restaurants. Seamless, Uber Eats and the rest swallowed up the online food ordering business. Slowly more and more restaurants let you order direct, some using startups like ChowNow that facilitate the transaction without dominating it. But it’s still an uphill climb.

Uber is basically the McDonald's of hired transportation. There are limitations, the experience definitely isn't premium, but its ultimately a fairly consistent purchasing experience that works most of the time.

Regular taxis? Sure, download this city specific app. Or one of the two city specific apps. Or call one of the local cab companies and find out you picked the one that doesn't consistently dispatch to your hotel so you end up waiting around with zero feedback. Or maybe you call and they show up in five minutes and its great.

It's ok though, not everything as to be optimised for convenience. Uber allowed us to do thing we didn't do in the past, and now these things seem natural, but we'd be just fine without them. Not every step is a step towards progress

Buying books online is a counterexample if anything. Books are a great product to sell online because they're relatively compact, there are a ton of them (way too many to have them all in a single physical bookstore), and two copies of the same new book are generally undifferentiated (unlike, say, produce). At least based on the way Bezos and other early insiders talk about it decades later, Amazon was never intended to be just a bookstore, but they were pretty intentional about starting with books.

It's more than a 100% improvement for me. I've taken thousands of rides, safely and easily, using a single app across countries and currencies without any major issue. It's also opened up travel in big cities and foreign regions that I wouldn't otherwise be able to do at all.

There's no alternative to this and it's incredibly valuable to many, even if you don't use it.

I agree. I also like 10% improvements.

So do I! I'm not sure they justify multi-billion-dollar valuations though.

Yeah, someone wrote a CRUD app to do ride sharing and now somehow their worth is in the same ballpark as a semiconductor superpower.

You mean you don't like a bunch of rich people throwing money away so you get a 10% improvement on some service?

I only have a problem with them trying to make it out on the IPO instead of making a profitable business. But this one can not go forever, or the public will wake-up, or the law enforcement will.

A 10% improvement over an incumbent means a complete takeover of the industry.

These percentages are all subjective, I'm just trying to illustrate a point.

I don't think it does mean a complete takeover. There are plenty of industries where being 10% cheaper doesn't mean you "win", and there are plenty where being 10% better doesn't either. In a world of perfect competition and perfect information it might, but it's well accepted that we do not live in that world.

It's an odd argument to make in the context of Uber/Lyft, which have indeed "won" by any reasonable definition, and handsomely rewarded it's investors (which should be victims in the overhype / under deliver scenario).

Assuming that incumbent does not improve...

10 percent improvement from a local small taxi company vs a worldwide company? It does make sense..

Amazon just sent us an actual paper catalog in the mail for clothing and gifts. Web shopping killed catalogs and now the biggest online store is sending me catalogs.

I think it’s an admission their site is an un-curated mess. but come on, are paper catalogs really the best solution Amazon came up with for their online store being cluttered, useless for product discovery, and overrun by poor quality products and fakes?

I sometimes feel like it is only me that suffers this - finding anything of quality on amazon is a pain. Unless I know the exact model number, chances are I'll be sold low quality stuff. I want some wine glasses, picture looks OK, reviews seem good - turn up - junk. I want to find a monitor - good luck! I want to find some light bulbs... Erm yeah, same.

Time was it was good as you knew it was cheaper than most places but that is generally totally not true now.

flew into jfk last week. Got in a taxi, driver didnt want to turn the meter on. Tried to tell me it was $80 instead of the $52 fixed rate + tolls etc. I managed to pay $65, but I had to pay in cash.

the same thing happened on the way back, except my hotel called the taxi, so then the taxi driver gave the bellman $10 and wanted me to give him the $10 he had to pay the bellman (which I did). He also wanted cash and didnt turn the meter on. I worry that if I insist they turn the meter on they would stop and kick me out of the taxi.

And yes Im out of practice. I used to negotiate that we use the meter and I can pay with a credit card before I even get in the taxi.

I have been uniformly cheated by taxi drivers everywhere in the world.

that alone would have me using rideshares even if it was a little more expensive.

It looks like a reference to the hype cycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle

You forgot to mention peak-hype, when the original investors sell their shares and laugh their way to the bank, while the subsequent buyers are left with a company of questionable value.

This is what keeps these cycles going.

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