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It's not remotely priced in.

The BTC price is currently held up by USDT inflows, rather than USD. Tether issuance notifications are the most reliable leading indicator in crypto: they are all you need to trade BTC.

Most people in crypto aren't even aware of the problem. Most of the ones that are, refuse to accept the situation and get very emotional when it's brought up.

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If Tether went to zero today, what would the true price of BTC be?

It's very difficult to say because the waterfall of cascading liquidations would shut down exchanges. It would take quite a while for things to settle down enough for a real fiat market to exist. The whole market is propped up by stacked leverage.

Given that it's being issued specifically to manipulate the market (it's not just a 'whale'), and the fact it's involved in 70% of crypto trades, I can't see a way to put a floor on it.

Neat where do you track Tether issuance notifications?

Twitter bots are easiest, though they come and go. But you can see the issuing wallet here:

http://omniexplorer.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3...

Or visit Tether's site:

https://wallet.tether.to/transparency

The canonical method would be to call the `totalSupply()` method on Tether's ERC20 contract.

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